PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2:   4 - 1A/1 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 8 - 1
Race 7:   8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 8:   8 - 1 - 6 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 2 - 9

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

I don’t want to default to the likely heavy favorite D Hopper (#6) in this opener. He crossed the wire first on debut before getting disqualified, and many will assume that he’s set up to get the official victory this time. Yet he was competing in an unusually weak race for the level, and only earned a mediocre speed figure that day. He might be capable of better in his second start, but I don’t need to support him to find out at a very short price. Chad Brown’s other runner Phelpsy (#5)didn’t show much in his two starts last year, but he might be capable of better off the layoff. I would just need a price on him, and runners from this barn can tend to be underlays. The first time starter Majestic Michael (#1) is a little interesting as he debuts for Tony Dutrow. This barn did win with some live firsters last year, and the horse has a nice pedigree, by Justify out of a dam who is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Awesome Maria. My top pick is Venge (#3). I want to give this well-bred son of Gun Runner one more chance after disappointing when he was last seen in January. Something may have gone awry that day, and he also just seemed uncomfortable rating between horses in the early stages. He showed some ability closing for third after a poor start on debut last year. He trained well for that race, and appears to again be working well for his return. I get the sense there’s more ability here and the price should be better this time.

Fair Value:
#3 VENGE, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 5

I don’t have a major problem with Spiked (#5), who seems like a deserving favorite in this spot. She crossed the wire first at this level going this distance in January, but was justifiably disqualified for interference. She tried a tougher race at this level last time going a one-turn mile and put in a decent effort to get up for fourth after briefly having to pause in upper stretch. She gets the distance and is the one to beat, and I do prefer her to the other expected short price Know It All Audrey (#3). I have some concerns about this filly getting the distance. She’s primarily competed against New York-breds, and has gotten very good trips when she’s been successful. I just don’t see any value with her. However, I am interested in a couple of other horses who finished behind Spiked that Feb. 24 race. Into Happiness (#6) was making up ground after lagging well behind early. A turf experiment didn’t work out last time, but I like her getting back on dirt, and the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy could be a positive one for her. Yet I’m most interested in Liam’s Kiss (#2) on the stretch-out. She got a very wide trip last time, legitimately traveling in the 4 to 5-path around the far turn. Her rider wasn’t aggressive early and then seemed to give up on her in the stretch. I think she’s better than that, and believe she can get a better trip under Jose Ortiz, who figures to send her forward from the inside draw. Based on pedigree and physical impression, I think the 9 furlongs will work for her.

Fair Value:
#2 LIAM'S KISS, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 6

Refuah (#8) is the horse to beat in this state-bred maiden, but he’s had more than his fair share of chances to break through at this level. He was beaten by a good horse last time in Olympic Dreams, and was flattered when that one came back to win his next start against tougher. Yet, despite breaking slowly, Refuah still ranged up like he might get the job done that day and just hung in the late stages. I want to explore other options, but fellow short price Rule Breaker (#4)won’t be among them. This $1 million auction purchase was sent off favored in the debut at Fair Grounds last month, but put in a disappointing effort. He came up empty in the lane, crossing the wire far behind the runaway winner. Brad Cox is 34 for 131 (26%, $1.39 ROI) with maiden second time starters in maiden special weight dirt routes over 5 years, so these types tend to get overbet. Among the second time starters, I’m more interested in I’m Just (#3). He was a bit sluggish through the early stages of his debut, dropping back to last on the backstretch. Yet he made steady progress while racing wide on the turn and stayed on decently finish less than two lengths out of second. That should have served as a good experience, and he seems like one that should have no problem stretching out to a mile. My top pick is another second time starter who figures to be a bigger price. Unaffected (#2) didn’t take much money in the debut, but showed decent early speed, chasing the pace down the backstretch before fading a bit in the late stages. Overall, it wasn’t a terrible effort and he has a right to be fitter in his second start. This son of Practical Joke has some good size to him and looks like one that might have more natural ability than that first result suggests. I don’t mind the rider switch to Katie Davis, who has been having some success at this meet, and this barn has been dangerous with some prices.

Fair Value:
#2 UNAFFECTED, at 9-1 or greater
#3 I'M JUST, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 7

After the scratch of Dontmesswithtess (#9) , Union Dolly (#1) will be a strong favorite here. She kept solid company when she ran in a starter allowance event back in January, getting a very good trip but just unable to see out the distance. I’ve always felt she was a bit cheaper than this, but this didn’t come up as the toughest race for the level. I’m interested in a couple of bigger prices, since I expect there to be some value elsewhere for those looking beyond the favorite. My top pick is Lady of Thoroton (#8). This filly had an inconsistent season last year, but she did put forth some good efforts at this level, including a solid third-place finish at Saratoga last summer. She also missed by just a length and a half the last time she routed on turf in October, despite getting rank in the early stages. And that has been a major issue for her, as she does tend to pull too much in the first half of her races. I’m hoping Katie Davis can get her more settled because she does have the ability to compete with this group when she runs a complete race. The other horse that I want to consider at a huge price is R Girl Faith (#5). She might look cheaper than these, but she moved up on turf when she switched to this surface last season. Since then, she’s gotten even better on dirt and is coming into this return to grass in the best form of her career. This might be too ambitious, but she’s one to throw into the mix at a gigantic price.

Fair Value:
#8 LADY OF THOROTON, at 4-1 or greater
#5 R GIRL FAITH, at 10-1 or greater

RACE 8

I didn’t want to default to likely favorite Stone Creator (#6) in this state-bred optional claimer. I think we saw the best she has to offer when she won off the layoff two back in February, where she got loose on the lead through soft fractions and rode a rail bias. She subsequently lost at this level last time despite getting another good trip, and I think she’s vulnerable again here. Among the logical alternatives are Sweet Mystery (#2) and Bavarian Creme (#1). The former is returning from a brief layoff and turning back in distance. She did show some ability early in her career and fits well at this level. Bavarian Creme has more recency, coming off a career-best performance at the N1X level last time. Yet she also has some things to prove against tougher while breaking from the rail. I want to go in a different direction with Thinking It Over (#8). She returned from a layoff at this level in March and put in a decent effort to get up for third after chasing a quick pace set by the talented Grannys Connection. This filly showed some talent last year, but seemed to hit a plateau over the summer. I thought her return as a 4-year-old represented a subtle step forward, and she may be capable of better second off the layoff. Ray Handal is having a typically strong meet and Katie Davis has ridden well.

Fair Value:
#8 THINKING IT OVER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9

I’ll be interested to see if the also eligible entrant Little Skippy (#11) draws into this affair. If he gets one defection and makes the race, he is one that figures to pull some support. He faced better company in both prior turf starts at Gulfstream and put in decent efforts on each occasion. However, he would be saddled with a disadvantageous post position and I think there are some other more interesting options in this field. In the main body of the field, Old Point (#6) could take some money on the switch to grass. However, he’s not the kind of first time turfer I want. He really doesn’t have that much pedigree for grass despite being out of a British-bred mare. It’s more of a dirt family overall, and he might just lack the speed to compete at this 6-furlong distance. Among the experienced options, I’d be more interested in Nieuwendyk (#7). He made just one start on turf in his career debut last summer, and didn’t run that badly. He contested a pace that came apart and stayed on pretty well for fifth. He has plenty of grass pedigree, and may be ready to put forth a better effort on this surface now that he’s had more experience and time to mature. My top pick is Father of Lies (#1), who is another horse trying grass for the first time. I find it encouraging that this horse showed good speed on debut before fading on the dirt, so he should be able to get forward position from this rail draw as he switches over to turf. Daredevil’s progeny have won 19% of their turf sprint starts. The dam was a synthetic specialist and she has produced a 3-time turf sprint winner. This horse moves like one that should take to this surface, and I think it’s encouraging that Javier Castellano takes the mount for a trainer who often names live riders on his live horses.

Fair Value:
#1 FATHER OF LIES, at 7-2 or greater