PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 3 - 2 - 7
Race 2:   7 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 7 - 2
Race 4:   6 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 3 - 9
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 6 - 8
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   4 - 9 - 2 - 7

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 2

Between the short prices, I much prefer the 3-year-old Moonage Daydream (#3), but still think this race is more wide open than simply taking a short price on this filly. She showed ability last year in both turf sprints at Aqueduct, including a stakes win in the Steward Manor. I won’t hold her loss around two turns against her and perhaps she can move forward with that race under her belt. The problem is that she had all the best of it up front when she earned that stakes win last year, and now there’s other speed signed on. I’m even less thrilled with Derrynane (#2), who figures to take money based on races from earlier in her career. Yet she was a disappointment last season, and failed at a short price at this same level in November. I’m more interested in two rivals drawn towards the outside. Road to Remember (#6) makes plenty of sense as she returns from a layoff. She defeated Derrynane in that Nov. 10 race last year, and just appeared to get into great form once Natalia Lynch added blinkers. She has the tactical speed to make her own good trip, and typically goes off at a fair price. My top pick is Patria (#7), who may offer even better value. If you’re able to ignore all of the dirt races and just focus on her two turf performances, she fits pretty well here. She put in a big effort to just miss first time on the grass last summer at Saratoga, carving out fast fractions and leading until the late stages at 41-1. She then got back on grass in November at Aqueduct and delivered front-running victory, again setting an honest pace. I won’t hold her subsequent dirt losses against her, as now she’s back on the right footing and her early speed should make her dangerous.

Fair Value:
#7 PATRIA, at 9-2 or greater
#6 ROAD TO REMEMBER, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 4

Smokin’ Hot Kitty (#4) is getting some class relief after facing a better group of New York-breds off the layoff last time. She was a little wide around the turns and just couldn’t quite compete after that. Now she’s dropping down to a more realistic level for Linda Rice. She was effective enough to be second in a similar spot last November, so she certainly makes sense. I prefer her to the other short price on the morning-line, Snow Loves a Fight (#3). I didn’t think this filly had much of an excuse to lose at a cheaper level last time out at Gulfstream. Irad Ortiz worked out a fantastic trip for her, and she just hung in the late stages against inferior rivals. I’m more interested in some bigger prices drawn outside of these fillies. My top pick is Always Laughing (#6). She comes into this race a little light on speed figures, but I think she has upside as a 3-year-old facing older horses. She only has one prior start on turf last year when she was a younger filly, and she actually did well to battle to a narrow loss at the maiden special weight level. That may not have been the strongest field, but I thought this filly showed affinity for grass after a wide trip. She’s since achieved mixed results on synthetic at Turfway, but I thought she put forth one of her best performances first off the claim for William Morey last time. She catches a vulnerable field and may be getting back on the right surface. I would also use Anileate (#5) and Rosemary Potatoes (#7). The former has only run competitively on the turf once, but she was also overmatched in the two poor efforts. She got in a prep on dirt last time and may be set for better as she switches surfaces. Rosemary Potatoes has had more chances on this surface, but she’s run well on a few occasions and typically goes off at generous prices. She’s good enough to be effective at this level if she can work out a trip.

Fair Value:
#6 ALWAYS LAUGHING, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5

This $12,500 claimer seems totally wide open, as most of the competitors are not in the best form. The only runner coming off a victory is No More Talk (#5), but I have reservations about him stretching out to a mile. He also beat a very weak field last time, and this race seems tougher. Doin’ittherightway (#3) makes some sense as he drops in class for Linda Rice. Yet this is a negative move and it bothers me that he took money last time and still underperformed. I’m more interested in some runners who can be forward early. My top pick is Musical Heart (#7). This David Jacobson trainee might seem like he’s gone off form, but he’s had valid excuses in his two starts for this barn. He was contesting an honest pace two back and lost significant momentum when steadied approaching the quarter pole. Then last time he had no business turning back to 6 furlongs, as he’s a runner who in the past has preferred marathon distances. I expect him to rebound on the class drop, and he’s also getting a rider upgrade to Eric Cancel. The other runners I would use are Bourbon Bay (#1) and Jumpster (#2). Both have been inconsistent, but the former did take a step in the right direction last time and owns dangerous speed from the rail for an underrated barn. Jumpster really improved off the claim for Randi Persaud last time, facing a much better field. He’s also entered as an MTO on Saturday, so it’s possible he may scratch for that spot instead.

Fair Value:
#7 MUSICAL HEART, at 5-2 or greater

RACE 6

I view Candencia (#5) as the horse to beat in this starter allowance. It just feels like her most recent dirt race was a prep for this. She’s much more of a grass horse, but she actually touted herself last time, showing good early speed off the layoff despite having to alter course on the backstretch. She ultimately got tired late, but should have gained some fitness from that effort. Now she’s turning back and returning to her preferred footing. The one knock against her is that she’s going to be a short price even though she’s a horse who has settled for second 6 times to go along with her single victory. I nevertheless prefer her to some other short prices in this spot. Ray Handal sends out a pair of contenders, but both are coming off November layoffs. Stella Mars (#4) seemed to improve with added ground last year, and No Payne (#6)might need slightly softer company than this. Though at least the latter runner has run some of her best races sprinting and could be a bigger price. My top pick is first time turfer True Empress (#2). I have wanted to see this filly get a chance on turf for a while now, based purely on her action. She has some good suspension to her stride and a fluid way of moving that often lends itself well to turf. She really doesn’t have that much pedigree for this surface, though Classic Empire is a decent grass influence. What intrigues me further is that she often runs like a turf horse would on dirt. She has a good turn of foot, but often flattens out late in her races. Switching to grass could make better use of all those attributes, and she figures to be a generous price.

Fair Value:
#2 TRUE EMPRESS, at 6-1 or greater