by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 8 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 6 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 10 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 9 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 9: 7 - 6 - 10 - 1
RACE 1: SPECTATOR SPORT (#4)
The two horses with proven class in this field are Direct Order and Family Biz. The former may go off as the slight favorite after beating three rivals as a heavy favorite in a similar spot last month. Yet that victory came over seven furlongs, and the only other time he tried today’s one-mile distance was in the Jerome, where he faded to finish last. I respect these connections, but I prefer main rival Family Biz. He was no match for a much tougher field in the Gotham last time, but he has previously proven his ability to handle this distance. I believe he’s the horse to beat, but there are a couple of recent maiden winners worth considering. The one likely to attract more support is Bye Bye Man. Linda Rice has done very well off the claim for these owners, and this colt easily defeated a field of overmatched rivals while earning a solid speed figure in his maiden win. I’ll definitely use him, but my top pick is Spectator Sport. He recorded a significantly slower speed figure than Bye Bye Man when he won his maiden at the same level back in February. However, that race has proven to be quite productive. Four horses have run back, and they all improved their speed figures – both Beyer and TimeformUS – significantly in their subsequent starts. Based on this evidence, it’s plausible that Spectator Sport may be capable of running a faster race as he steps up in class. Furthermore, the Pace Projector is predicting he will work out a favorable stalking trip in a race expected to favor the early leaders.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5
RACE 5: SHE’S TROUBLE (#1)
Spring Drama is likely to go off as the public choice once again despite losing by a head in her first start against winners. Her recent speed figures are among the highest in the field, and she figures to work out another good trip stalking the pace. However, there are other fillies who may possess greater natural ability than this opportunistic favorite. Miss Hot Stones has a right to turn the tables after finishing only two lengths behind Spring Drama last time out. That was her first start in nearly 15 months, so she has a right to move forward in her second start off the layoff. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is She’s Trouble. This filly showed promise as a 2-year-old, picking up minor awards in a few stakes races. After winning her maiden impressively at Saratoga, she did not encounter ideal circumstances in her two subsequent starts. She was hindered by a speed-favoring track in the Seeking the Ante, and she then was compromised by a wide trip behind an extremely slow pace in the Joseph A. Gimma. She is clearly better than those performances, and she has a right to put forth a faster speed figure now that she’s been given ample time to mature. Linda Rice has solid numbers off layoffs of this type, and she’s not catching the toughest field in her return. I’ll use her with the two aforementioned contenders as well as Passporttovictory, who may appreciate getting back on a fast track.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,5,6
RACE 6: AIR ON FIRE (#1)
Variant Perception is likely to go off as the favorite in this first turf race of 2019 as Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables will look to continue their domination of New York grass racing. This lightly-raced colt is the horse to beat, but it’s been a while since he put forth an effort that makes him particularly formidable. He defeated a solid field when he broke his maiden in February 2018, but it took him nearly a year to get back to the races following that performance. While his allowance return this past January was not exactly an inspiring effort, he was facing significantly tougher company than day. Now he gets a needed drop in class and a rider switch to Irad Ortiz. I’m definitely using him prominently, but I’m somewhat concerned about the pace scenario. This horse showed no speed when he came off the layoff last time, and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runner. That pacesetter is likely to be Air On Fire, and I think this Jason Servis trainee is dangerous. It took this gelding 15 starts to break his maiden, but he did so in impressive fashion on Feb. 7, drawing away from an overmatched group by over 14 lengths. Even with that win under his belt, this horse has been a disappointment for his connections since the claim. However, today’s switch to turf intrigues me. Back in late 2017, Air On Fire earned a series of speed figures in turf sprints that would make him competitive in a spot like this, and he appears to have improved since then. He showed that he handles route distances while racing on dirt last spring, so I’m not too concerned about the stretch-out in distance. Unless apprentice Joey Martinez is intent on sending River Knight to the lead, Air On Fire should be able to set his own tempo up front. This son of Unbridled’s Song moves like a turf horse and has plenty of grass pedigree on the bottom side of his pedigree. If that most recent victory has awakened his competitive spirit, I see no reason why he can’t continue winning here. At a bigger price, I also want to use first time turfer Dr. Hipp in some capacity. This horse’s dam was a 6-time turf winner and has produced a turf-winning foal. He did not draw an ideal post position for the distance, but he should appreciate the surface switch.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,7,10
Trifecta: 1 with 4,10 with 2,4,7,10
RACE 7: CARTHON (#5)
Charlie McCoy is clearly the horse to beat off a pair of impressive TimeformUS Speed Figures earlier this winter. He is likely to win this race if he reproduces that form here, but he will have to do so while negotiating an extra furlong. This horse has never raced beyond 7 furlongs in his career, and his best sibling My Boy Tate was also best going sprint distances. He’s the most likely winner of this race, but he could be overbet as handicappers just assume that he will able to handle the mile. This is not exactly a soft field for the level and I think at least one challenger has a solid chance to pull off the minor upset. Carthon has steadily been improving throughout the winter months and he’s been knocking on the door at this N2X level in recent starts. He lost a heartbreaker going this distance last time after doing all the hard work up front. He set legitimate fractions and fought off a series of challengers before getting pegged right on the wire. He projects to work out a different trip this time with Charlie McCoy and Three to Thirteen in the race. Both figure to show more speed, which should put Carthon in a stalking position. I think this horse might actually be better with a target to run at and I don’t mind the rider switch to Irad Ortiz.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 1,7
Trifecta: 5 with 1 with 2,3,7
RACE 8: DAWN THE DESTROYER (#9)
This Distaff Handicap drew a highly competitive field of fillies and mares, many of whom are in the best form of their careers. The probable favorite is Kathryn the Wise, who attempts to register back-to-back stakes wins following her dazzling 10-length triumph in the La Verdad back in January. The 123 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance is the highest in this field, and she will win if she repeats that performance. However, she clearly relished the sloppy going that day and was beating a softer group. It’s unclear if she can reproduce that effort in graded stakes company over a dry track. Her main rival is Come Dancing, who exits a career-best effort in the Go For Wand last December. She nearly pulled off an upset over the classy Marley’s Freedom while earning a solid 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She focused on route races in the latter half of 2018, but this slight turnback to seven furlongs should not present a problem. She’s a serious threat from stalking range. I’m using both of these mares prominently, but my top pick is Dawn the Destroyer. I was thrilled with her comeback effort last November, as she ran right past Kathryn the Wise on her way to a decisive score. She validated that improved performance with a victory in the Interborough two months later and would be a major threat if she were to repeat either of those efforts in this spot. Some may be disappointed by her recent third-place finish as the 5-2 second choice in the Barbara Fritchie, but I thought she did not get an ideal trip that day. Dawn the Destroyer runs her best races when running outside and in the clear, like in that impressive November win. Yet she broke toward the inside in the Fritchie and was never able to get off the rail. This time, Junior Alvarado should be able to take advantage of her outside post position. If the leaders set an honest pace, look for her to be charging past them all in the lane.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 9 with 2,5,7 with 2,4,5,6,7