by David Aragona
Provided that we get a little help from Mother Nature, Friday will mark the opening day of the NYRA turf season. There are a pair of six-furlong turf sprints scheduled on this 9-race card. The 4th race features a slew of horses shipping up from Florida, including the talented New York-bred Epping Forest, who makes her four-year-old debut and looks like a deserving favorite over fellow contenders Jumby Bay and Abbreviate. Later on the card, the 7th race marks the return to turf for stakes-placed two-year-old Awsum Roar as she faces a field of state-breds.
The highlight on this Friday card is clearly the Grade 3 Distaff Handicap, which goes as Race 8. It features the anticipated match-up between Divine Miss Grey and Sounds Delicious, who both enter this off a string of impressive open-length victories. Since both of these four-year-old fillies do their best running on or near the lead, this has all the hallmarks of a thrilling race. I would give the slight edge to Sounds Delicious, who drew an advantageous outside post position and should prove tough to fend off late if she produces her usual finishing power.
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 7 - 4
Race 4: 2 - 6 - 3 - 9
Race 5: 9 - 3 - 8 - 6
Race 6: 5 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 7: 11 - 5 - 1 - 10
Race 8: 8 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 9: 10 - 5 - 4 - 3
RACE 1: NEVER NEVERMORE (#1)
Candygram is likely to attract the most support among the few runners with experience. He ships up from Gulfstream after showing good early speed in a pair of maiden races this winter. The March 17 effort was an encouraging improvement on his debut, as he finished well clear of the third-place finisher while losing to a talented first-time starter. The 101 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned makes him the horse to beat, but there are others to consider. Chad Brown sends out a pair of firsters who were expensive purchases. Earned Success seems like the one better suited to winning a dirt sprint since he’s out of Grade 1 stakes-placed sprinter Valiant Passion and attracts one of this barn’s go-to riders, Irad Ortiz. The tote board may provide some clues as to their chances. I instead prefer second-time starter Never Nevermore, who once again breaks from the rail for trainer David Donk. He was facing a relatively soft field in his debut, but I thought he ran well within the context of the race. He was always down inside and was forced to make a late run up the rail in the stretch, which is not an ideal trip for a runner making his debut. Furthermore, the early pace of that race was fairly slow (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs), so Never Nevermore actually did quite well to nearly get up for the win. He will have to improve here, but I think he’s likely to take a step forward. Over the past five years, Donk is 6 for 18 (33 percent, $2.13 ROI) with maiden second-time starters who finished in the money in their debuts.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,6
RACE 3: DAVKA (#3)
Felix in Fabula is a deserving favorite based on his most recent effort at this level. He finished well clear of third-place finisher Lutheran Rags and earned a speed figure that makes him faster than all of his competitors. However, the majority of the runners in this field are lightly raced, and things are prone to change from start to start at this time of year. The one knock I have against the favorite is that a mile may be a bit of a stretch for him. He was successful going seven furlongs in Florida, and he appeared to flatten out late going this distance last time after looking like a potential winner at the head of the stretch. I’m hardly against him here, but others do stand to offer better value. My top pick is Davka. His effort on Feb. 8 suggests that he’s fast enough to contend with these, and I’m willing to throw out his last race. This horse wants no part of sprinting, and he basically put up the white flag after he couldn’t get near the early lead that day. There is not an abundance of early speed in this race, so Davka should fall into a great stalking trip sitting just off likely pacesetter Binkster in the early going. The Mark Casse barn has quietly done very well in New York over the past several months, and this horse figures to go off at a generous price. One other contender to consider is the maiden Hot Mesa. Linda Rice did not have this colt cranked up for his debut against a weak field last time, but the confidence that Rudy Rodriguez shows by moving him up in class off the claim should not go unnoticed.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,6,7
RACE 5: POLAR CITY (#9)
Distorted Admiral’s recent dirt form makes him formidable here, but this is an awfully big drop in class for a horse that was claimed for $40,000 just two starts back. It’s now been over two months since his last race and it’s not as if there have been a lack of spots for him in the interim. There are some clear signs that he may be heading in the wrong direction, so he’s not a favorite that I want to lean on. One of the distinctive features of this race is the glaring lack of early speed. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors the front-runner, who will be Polar City. Paco Lopez is one of the best speed riders in the game and I don’t mind the claim by the capable David Duggan. The only concern I have is the possibility of a wet track on Friday, since Polar City clearly prefers dry going.
Win: 9
Exacta: 9 with 3,6,8
RACE 6: PRINCESS MIKAYAH (#5)
Buy for Less and Neon are not the types of horses that I want to bet at short prices. The standout race that Buy for Less ran two back looks weaker in retrospect, and Neon has never run a particularly fast race. This seems like the kind of race that could produce an unconventional result, so I’m taking a shot with an unconventional horse. Princess Mikayah goes out for connections that don’t really win races on this circuit. However, the horse herself has run well enough to beat the favorites here. She did so back on Sep. 22 against maiden special weight company. Her two starts since then for this new barn have not been quite as strong. However, one of those came at a mile, which may be too far for her. Her last effort sprinting was not as bad as it seems considering that she stumbled badly at the start. If she can stick within range of the leaders early, she can use her steady finish to wear them down late at a square price.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,8
RACE 7: ROCK AVE. ROAD (#11)
The second of two turf sprints on this opening day of the NYRA turf season features a heavy favorite in Awsum Roar. This filly is a bit of a conundrum. If she runs back to the turf efforts she put forth as a 2-year-old, she’s very likely to win this race. However, plenty of time has passed since then, and her return in a dirt race last time was not encouraging. She now switches to the barn of Jason Servis, who is as good a trainer of turf sprinters as there is in the country. She appears to be faster than pace rival Ribbonite and may just take this field wire to wire. On the other hand, I’m reticent to accept a short price on a horse who has so many questions to answer. The best alternative I can find is Rock Ave. Road. At first glance, she looks inferior to some of her competitors, but a closer examination of her 2017 turf races reveals that her overall form is stronger than it appears. Let’s just look at her races against winners. She was hindered by a wide trip against a slow pace on Aug. 13 at Saratoga. Then on Sept. 9, she got caught in traffic late while making a run up the rail. She had to alter course multiple times when searching for running room on Oct. 1 and then was too close to a pace that collapsed on Nov. 17. Clearly, this mare has had excuses. She returns at the perfect distance and should work out a favorable stalking trip in a race that does not feature a plethora of early-speed types.
Win: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,5,10