PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 3:   6 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 5:   4 - 5 - 8 - 3
Race 6:   3 - 4 - 7 - 1
Race 7:   8 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 3 - 6

PLAYS

(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 4

My primary opinion in the first turf race of the season, a NY-bred maiden event, is that I don’t want to settle for a short price on Electric Stuff (#1), who figures to take money based on nice speed figures in dirt races. He actually does have plenty of turf pedigree, being out of a dam who was a 3-time turf winner. Yet I think that’s all going to be built into his price, and others will likely offer better value. I believe the horse to beat is Factually Correct (#8), who also has some strong dirt speed figures. Yet he’s already shown that he handles turf, having run well when second over this surface on debut last fall. I’m not sure that he could have won that race even with a clean stretch run, but he was significantly hampered by a loose horse that day. He’s since improved for Rudy Rodriguez, and should relish the cutback in distance and surface switch. There are a few runners in this race coming back off layoffs with slower speed figures from last year. Twenty Six Black (#3) falls into that category, and has a right to improve after getting a tentative ride on debut. Yet I was more interested in Itsallcomintogetha (#4) at what could be a better price. This Phil Serpe trainee faced plenty of adversity on debut, when he got badly sandwiched at the start before making up ground to finish third. He disappointed a bit as the favorite in his next turf start, but that race has since proven to be stronger than it appeared at the time. The top three finishers have all returned to significantly improve their speed figures, including a pair of next-out winners. I like the way he’s training for his return, and Phil Serpe finally picked up a win at Gulfstream recently, his first since last summer at Saratoga.

Fair Value:
#4 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 6

It’s not often that you see a horse march right through its New York-bred conditions the way morning-line favorite Shutters (#7) has. It’s also worth noting that he’s compiled this win streak with gaps between starts, so the layoff into this race probably isn’t much of a concern, especially considering that he’s going out for one of the best layoff barns in the business. Shutters got a great trip last time, but he still unleashed an eye-catching turn of foot once steered into the clear. His 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure arguably makes him the horse to beat, and he might still have some upside in just his fifth career start. The main drawback is the likely short price, but I view him as the horse to beat. Easter (#1) is the other runner who could take money returning from a layoff in this spot, and I have some more questions about him. He made his U.S. debut around this same time last year at Aqueduct, and put in a nice late run to get up for third in a race that didn’t feature much pace. He subsequently stretched out to marathon distances with decent results. He was a little overmatched in the G1 Man O’ War, and then couldn't reel in the progressive Balthus when last seen in June. He now returns from another layoff, turning back to a mile, but I wonder if he’s using this as a prep for something longer. His lack of speed might also compromise him in a race that doesn’t feature a clear pace scenario. I’m most interested in a couple of alternatives who can be forwardly placed. So High (#4) has arguably been in better form at different times in the past, but he's also been known to wake up with competitive efforts from time to time. He outran his odds when second in a similar spot at this track last April, beating Easter. He has only been seen twice since then earlier this year, not running quite as well. Yet his tactical speed should play better here on the turnback in distance, and he often gets overlooked in the wagering. My top pick is Giant’s Fire (#3), who will be making his turf debut. This expensive colt just hasn’t quite panned out on dirt, but he has shown some hints of ability at times. I think the switch to turf can help bring out his full potential. Gun Runner has not been a great turf influence, getting just 5% winners from grass starts. Yet there is ample turf breeding on the dam’s side of this pedigree. The dam herself was unraced, but she is a half-sister to some European turf horses, including Group 2 Ribblesdale winner Princess Highway and Group 1 Irish St. Leger winner Royal Diamond. Furthermore, this colt’s second dam is Irresistible Jewel, who also won the Ribblesdale. John Terranova is 3 for 9 (33%, $8.73 ROI) with non-maidens trying turf for the first time, and the price should be fair.

Fair Value:
#3 GIANT'S FIRE, at 6-1 or greater
#4 SO HIGH, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 7

I’m taking a stand against morning-line favorite Rossa Veloce (#6) in this Grade 3 Distaff. She’s been in great form for Rob Atras, but she’s also benefited from some pretty soft trips against inferior competition. She did achieve her first stakes victory last time by an impressive winning margin, but that was a very weak race for the level and she was allowed to dominate on the front end through slow fractions. I think she’s stepping up to meet a much tougher group, and I’m not convinced that she’s going to be quite as effective over 7 furlongs. Two legitimate rivals are drawn down towards the inside. Gerrymander (#2) will attempt to get back to the glory of her Mother Goose win from last summer, and this is her first attempt in a one-turn race since then. I don’t love the way she tailed off last year, but it’s possible the freshening has done her well. I want to get a little more creative with a horse who could get somewhat overlooked. Mommasgottarun (#8) is turning back on very short rest, having just competed in the 9-furlong Top Flight here last Sunday. She finished last of 5, but still earned a solid 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure after setting an honest pace. That pairs up nicely with her victory two back, when she was a dominant winner going one turn. The blinkers have definitely made her more focused, but they also might have made her too keen for the stretch-out last time. I like the shorter distance for her, and Linda Rice has had success bringing horses back on short rest.

Fair Value:
#8 MOMMASGOTTARUN, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 8

I acknowledge that Launch Control (#6) has a license to handle the turf, but he just feels like one that will be overbet for connections that tend to take a lot of money. He’s by Freud and is a full-sibling to one runner who handled turf, so the pedigree is decent. He’s just going to attract support based on a dirt speed figure, and those types are often bad bets. Scherzando (#5) is the horse with the best turf race, having earned a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his narrow loss at this level on grass last April. He got in a prep on dirt last time and could be ready to step forward here. Yet I’m a little more interested in some others this time. My top pick is Disarmed (#7), who is also likely switching back to his preferred surface. This horse began his career on turf last year for Christophe Clement and ran well in a couple of races, including a narrow loss to stakes winner Vacation Dance in September. He has handled dirt on a few occasions since getting claimed by Rudy Rodriguez, but I think he’s going to appreciate this switch back to grass. He figures to be forwardly placed under the typically aggressive apprentice Jaime Torres. ace winners. Yet this gelding just feels like one that could get somewhat lost in the wagering in a race that features a few more obviously appealing options.

Fair Value:
#7 DISARMED, at 5-2 or greater