PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 2 - 5
Race 2:   2 - 11 - 10 - 1
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 6 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 3 - 7
Race 5:   2 - 4 - 7 - 3
Race 6:   12 - 8 - 13 - 1A
Race 7:   5 - 7 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   6 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 9:   11 - 10 - 4 - 5

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: IRON POWER (#2)
Iron Power lost to With Exultation the last time they met, but I'm fairly confident that the Mizzen Mast gelding will be able to turn the tables in this spot. Even though Iron Power lost by just more than a length last time, there's no doubt that he ran the better race. He was off to a stumbling start, which placed him toward the back of the pack in the early going. From there, he advanced wide and uncovered onto the backstretch. He became keen under Irad Ortiz, who gave him his head around the three-eighths pole, letting him making an early, wide move to the lead. That run proved to be premature, as he was cut down late by the eventual winner, who saved ground all the way. Iron Power now returns in a similar spot for Rudy Rodriguez, who has been unstoppable the past few weeks at Aqueduct.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,10,11

RACE 4: UNION PATRIOT (#6)
If Giant Zinger draws into this race, she's obviously the horse to beat. She ran a strong second in her race two back at Belmont, finishing well clear of today's chief rival, Tizengaginglysmart, and then followed that up with a solid, closing third-place finish last time. However, even if she does draw into this race, I think there's another filly exiting that Nov. 10 heat who deserves consideration here. Union Patriot ran like a horse who really needed the experience in her debut. She broke inward from an outside post position and became rank through the opening furlongs while restrained at the back of the pack. Coming to the top of the stretch, she was running on well, but she encountered traffic at the head of the lane and drifted over to the rail. She ended up costing herself some momentum and couldn't make much of a dent late in a race that was dominated by a wire-to-wire winner. She's bred to keep improving with age since her dam is a half-sister to top older mare Summer Colony.

Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7,9,10

RACE 6: ROSIE P (#12)
Most of the speed in this race figures to come from the outside post positions. The logical speed type to include is Nisha, who surprised at more than 7-1 when winning last time in wire-to-wire fashion. That win came against a softer group than the one she meets today, but she did it in a fast time and deserves some respect here. Her main rivals appear to be closers. Sister Sophia has been rounding back into form for new trainer Jorge Abreu, and recent maiden winner China Rider should appreciate getting back into a turf sprint. I think they're the two closers to use, but I think this race could produce an odd result. Rosie P is the kind of longshot whom I like to throw into my wagers. No, she is not the most likely winner of this race by any stretch, but I nevertheless want to highlight her as a horse who could offer significant value. She has the look of a filly who could really move up with this switch to turf. Her dam was a turf winner, and she is a half-sister to two turf winners, including one sired by negative turf influence Jump Start. Rosie P is by Girolamo, a 13 percent turf sire who has gotten his fair share of turf sprinters from his first few crops. I think it's notable that her best race came over a sloppy, sealed track, which is sometimes conducive to horses with turf ability. Furthermore, trainer Kelly Breen gets a 94 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with turf sprinters and a 100 Rating when riding Paco Lopez.

Win/Place: 12
Exacta Key Box: 12 with 1,2,8,13
Trifecta: 1,8,13 with 1,2,7,8,11,13 with 12

RACE 9: EMPIRE LINE (#11)
Make no mistake, Gio d'Oro is clearly the horse to beat in this finale. He overcame some early greenness in his debut to make a solid late run at the eventual winner, Sea Form, who would return to win a stakes in his next start. A repeat of that performance would make this Brad Cox runner awfully tough to beat. That said, he's going to go off at a very short price. There are a few viable alternatives, and this seems like the kind of situation where those horses could go off as overlays. The one I'm interested in betting is first-time starter Empire Line. This horse just appears to be well meant for his debut. He comes in with a solid string of workouts and showed high speed when working a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton sale this year. There's class in his female family since his dam is a half-sister to Breeders' Cup winner Rushing Fall. Furthermore, George Weaver has surprisingly strong numbers with his 2-year-old first-time-starters in dirt sprints on the NYRA circuit. Over the past five years, he is 10 for 43 (23 percent, $5.26 ROI) in such situations.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,4,5,10