by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 6 - 7
Race 2: 2 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 3: 3 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 4: 7 - 8 - 3 - 9
Race 5: 12 - 10 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1/1A
Race 7: 11 - 9 - 3 - 8
Race 8: 13 - 2 - 12 - 3
Race 9: 2 - 11 - 12 - 9
RACE 1: MAMA KIN (#3)
Bill Mott has a couple of contenders in this race, and his entrant Barista Vixen could go off as the slight favorite. If you’re willing to excuse that poor performance over a sloppy track last time, her prior dirt form makes her pretty formidable here. She ran quite well to be second in her debut as a 2-year-old, albeit in a race that featured a very fast early pace. She couldn’t muster a rally in her return from the layoff in August, but she was facing a pretty tough field that day. Now she’s finally dropping in class, a move that has worked well for this barn. Over the past 5 years, Mott is 6 for 15 (40%, $3.50 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns on dirt at Aqueduct. I’m using her, but there are others to consider, including fellow surface switchers Zerenia and Bastet. I find all of them more intriguing than the cheaper Wishes and Dreams, who has been failing in softer spots than this and figures to be among the short prices. My top pick is a different new face, Mama Kin. Her debut wasn’t so bad, as she overcame a slow start to get into an early stalking position before staying on at one pace while attempting to lug in through the stretch. She added blinkers for the second start and broke more alertly, but didn’t get the most comfortable trip thereafter. She’s been on the shelf for a long time and now returns for a $40,000 tag, which is probably where she belongs. Some of those recent works are pretty quick and Carlos Martin can certainly get one ready off a layoff.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,6,7,8
RACE 2: MR HOT CHACHA (#2)
Martinez will probably go favored once again despite losing his last three starts at short prices. In fairness to him, he’s not a dirt horse and he probably didn’t want to route three back at Saratoga. I would judge him off his third-place finish at Belmont on Oct. 11 when he actually ran pretty well to close for third in a race where the pace held together. He finished behind today’s rival Sonic Speed that day, but I’d rather take Martinez out of that race given their respective trips. That said, neither one is particularly compelling at a short price and there are others to consider. I’m somewhat against the more obvious alternatives like Vodka Lemonade and Danzigwiththestars. The former has excelled in routes and the latter is coming out of a very weak race for the level. I’m instead interested in some newer faces. Mr. Hot Chacha seems like a candidate to improve in his second start for Dave Donk. He was never a serious threat in his debut here two weeks ago, but I thought he stayed on well in the late stages in what was a reasonably fast race for the level. This son of The Factor has plenty of pedigree to be a nice turf horse, as a half-sibling to a couple of multiple winners on this surface. I think he deserves another shot and would expect him to take a step forward for a barn who rarely has them cranked up to win first time out. Another horse that I would throw into the mix at a huge price is first time starter R Boy Little Eddie. While there’s not a ton of obvious turf in his immediate family, his dam ran well on turf, she’s out of a turf stakes-placed runner, and she is a half-sister to turf winners Free N Clear and Sidd Finch.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 4,6,8
RACE 5: THEATRICAL DANCER (#12)
I suppose a horse like Mendham will be favored here based on her third-place finish at this level last time. She’s the only horse in this field with any prior turf route experience, and the fact that she hit the board in one of those races is likely to make her a short price. While she did close into a slow pace last time, she saved ground every step of the way before angling out in the stretch, and she still couldn’t get by the runner-up, who had a wide trip. She’s obviously a factor here, but she wasn’t one that I found particularly compelling at a short price. I’m interested in some horses stretching out. One of those who is trying the turf for the first time is Photofinish Jeanne. She hasn’t shown much on dirt yet, but she did improve her speed figure last time, and she’s bred to do even better on grass. She’s by 14% turf sire Midshipman, and her dam is a half-sister to multiple Group 1-winning turf horse Aljabr. She’s a player, as are a couple of horses who debuted sprinting on Oct. 3. Both Theatrical Dancer and Emma and I were closing in tandem that day, and then came back in an off-the-turf race on Oct. 30. Emma and I handled the sloppy dirt better and checked in third, but she has a right to improve getting back on grass. Yet I’m slightly more interested in Theatrical Dancer, as she just looked lost when green in her debut and didn’t want any part of the dirt last time. She’s bred to get more ground as a half-sister to turf router Jo’s Bold Cat.
Win/Place: 12
Exacta Box: 4,10,12
RACE 7: HIT IT ONCE MORE (#11)
This is a confusing and competitive $25,000 claimer on the turf, and it’s a race in which I’d be reluctant to settle for short prices. The likely favorite is So High, and I don’t have a major knock against this horse. He’s simply the one to beat based on his last effort, when he won a $35,000 conditioned claimer over heavy favorite Dream Friend. However, the connections are showing no ambition with this 4-year-old as they drop him off the win, and his prior efforts don’t nearly measure up to that last performance. Hayabusa One has plenty of back class, but he’s not really a winning type and I’m skeptical about him still possessing the speed to compete over this shorter distance. Attentive is somewhat intriguing at a bigger price as he drops in class in his second start off the claim for Tom Morley. He ran pretty well last time when making a wide far turn move before flattening out. Ghost Giant also makes sense, and like So High, he’s also coming off a relatively fast win. However, he got an absolutely perfect trip when coming from off the pace to win that New York-bred claimer, and if I’m going to take a horse out of that race, I’d rather it be Hit It Once More. This horse’s recent form had fallen apart on the dirt, but he had always shown turf ability despite failing to hit the board in any of his starts on that surface. He finally got back on turf last time and ran a vastly improved race. He didn’t break that sharply, but rushed up to contest a fast pace and didn’t quit until the very late stages. Obviously he would have to move forward again to beat this field while switching barns, but there isn’t that much speed signed on and his lone pace rival Vip Nation sometimes has gate issues of her own.
Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 2,3,4,8,9
RACE 8: BUSTIN SHOUT (#13)
I liked More Graytful last time when he won at 5-1 and earned a fast speed figure to beat the talented Tale of the Union. He’s the horse to beat here even as he steps up in class, and while I respect his current form, I’m not thrilled with the prospect of taking a much shorter price on him. It’s possible that he’s simply improving at the end of his 3-year-old season, but his prior form doesn’t exactly make him a standout in this field, and he’s facing a tougher group with much more pace signed on. Foolish Ghost beat him when they met on Oct. 3 and I don’t see why that horse isn’t a real threat once again. Foolish Ghost is the quintessential “speed of the speeds,” so he figures to be in front of these early. The real question is whether he can hang on going 6 1/2 furlongs against a field of this quality. I’m using him, but I want to look for a bit more value given the wide open nature of this field. My top pick is Bustin Shout, who switches back to dirt after just missing when racing for an optional claiming tag against New York-breds in his most recent start. While his Beyers suggest that turf may be his preferred surface, he earned a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that October 16 off-the-turf victory, and that number has held up as horses have run back out of that race. Furthermore, he ran well within the context of that race, surviving an early duel before drawing off. It appears to me that Bustin Shout is simply in the best form of his career right now, and I like that he’s drawn outside of the other speeds in this field. The distance is a slight concern for him as well, but at least he’s going to be a square price.
Win: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 2,3,9,12
Trifecta: 13 with 2,12 with 1,2,3,9,11,12