by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   4 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 2:   1/1A - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 4:   5 - 2 - 4 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 1 - 8 - 6
Race 6:   10 - 9 - 2 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 8:   2 - 5 - 1 - 3

PLAYS

 
RACE 1: DANCING SLIPPERS (#4)
There’s not much dirt form in this opener, so a couple of fillies with mostly turf form are likely to attract support. Petalite, who figures to be the favorite, comes in with a set of superior turf speed figures and she will take money on that basis. To her credit, she did run fairly well in her only dirt start and did so over a fast track. However, she’s been targeted at more of a turf career since then and it’s not as if her lone dirt performance totally justifies the short price that she’s likely to be. I nevertheless prefer her to Freddymo Factor, who has run fast enough on turf but looks like more of a turf runner, having even been scratched out of off-the-turf events in the past. The two with the best dirt form are Anydayisherday and Dancing Slippers. The former figures to attract more support since she’s run faster, but she’s done so in sprint races. I’m skeptical about her getting the mile, though her speed does make her dangerous. My top pick is Dancing Slippers. She’s had more chances than everyone else in this field and some may hold that against her. Yet she’s coming into this race in some of the best form of her career, and she ran a dirt race last time that would probably be good enough to beat this bunch. The 82 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned is solid and that number was validated when The Great Johanna returned to win again with a similar figure. Furthermore, Dancing Slippers ran better than it appears, as she got hampered by a loose horse just as she was commencing a rally last time. She would have finished a clear second that day without the trouble. If she’s the fourth choice in this 5-horse field, I believe she’s the right bet.

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
 

RACE 3: ABRAXAN (#6)
Solitary Gem may go favored in this spot given her two recent speed figures and general consistency in a race lacking much of that. However, she’s just 1 for 22 lifetime with plenty of second- and third-place finishes, and it’s not going to take a sensational effort to beat her. While she nearly got the job done at this level last time, I thought a couple of the runners who finished behind her actually ran better races. Lem Me Have It arguably would have won that day had her rider kept her off the inside in the stretch. The rail was not the place to be on Nov. 21 and Lem Me Have It was unwisely sent down inside when attempting to rally past tiring rivals late. Though she, like Solitary Gem, would have benefitted from an honest pace had she been successful. My top pick is Abraxan, the filly who was setting that pace on Nov. 21. Not only did she contest fast early fractions, but she was racing on the rail for the first 5 furlongs of that event before drifting slightly off the inside in the stretch. All things considered, I though Abraxan did well to lose by only 3 lengths and I don’t mind the slight stretch-out in distance to a mile. She broke her maiden over this course and distance last January with a performance that would probably make her tough here if she could repeat it. The other horse I want to consider is Nasty Affair. She’s tough to trust given her propensity to break slowly. However, she wasn’t persevered with last time from the quarter pole home so that’s not a true indicator of her current form. Perhaps the blinkers can help her to focus early.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7
 

RACE 5: MISS JILL (#7)
The likely favorite Deja Raconte will take money because of her connections. She is really cut out to be a turf horse, but she transferred her form to the main track last time, hanging on for fourth after chasing the pace. However, she got a pretty good trip and had every chance in the lane but just couldn’t sustain her run. Many will view this move to Rudy Rodriguez as a positive, but he’s just 4 for 25 (16%, $0.54 ROI) first off a trainer switch in maiden-claiming dirt races over the past 5 years. On the other hand she figures to show more speed with blinkers and could be tough to catch if she gets in front of this field. Nevertheless, I prefer her main rival Funderella. She’s not the fastest filly in the world but she’s consistent and is able to race competitively in these bottom-level maiden claimers on dirt. These state-bred races are sometimes tougher than their open company counterparts, but that doesn’t appear to be the case this time. She has the tactical speed to work out a good trip and should be right there at the end. Yet, given the shaky ground on which these two fillies are standing, I think we can get a bit more creative with a longshot. My top pick is second-time starter Miss Jill. This filly wasn’t totally disgraced in defeat last time, finishing eighth of 14 runners after racing wide in an unusually competitive spot at the level. The second- and fifth-place finishers have returned to win out of that race with TimeformUS Speed Figures of 85 and 81, validating the number that Miss Jill was assigned. She obviously needs to do better this time, but she may not have to improve as much as some others who will be shorter prices. There’s upside here and she’s far from impossible at a huge price.

Win/Place: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,6,8,9
 

RACE 6: CADEAU DE PAIX (#10)
Possible favorite Wisconsin Night returned from a lengthy layoff last time for Linda Rice, taking advantage of the claiming price waiver rule to compete without the risk of being taken for $25,000. The quality of that last race is a little questionable, since the first- and third-place finishers returned to regress. Yet this filly has every right to step forward now and it’s a good sign that she’s bumped up to the $40,000 level in her second start back. Some may perceive her main rival to be Teletype, but I’m a little skeptical of this filly. Typically, you’re supposed to bet against horses like this, since she is going to take money due to her connections and the fact that she's earned some of the top speed figures in the field. However, all of those were achieved on turf. She has clearly improved in the Rudy Rodriguez barn this year, but her dirt debut at a two-year-old actually wasn’t that bad, as she showed speed before fading behind the talented Lyrical Lady. She might not be a one-dimensional turfer, but it’s still hard to take a short price on her. My top pick is Cadeau de Paix. This filly hasn’t seen much action over the past several months, requiring a pair of layoffs after breaking her maiden last spring. While she ran poorly in her two subsequent starts, she was facing significantly tougher rivals in both of those races. Her Saratoga performance was actually pretty good, and a repeat of that effort would make her pretty tough to beat here. It's the last effort that is of concern, but at least she’s coming back in just 4 weeks at a more realistic level. She also may get the right pace setup this time.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,2,9
Trifecta: 10 with 1,2,9 with 1,2,3,9
 

RACE 8: UNBRIDLED JOHN (#2)
Sixteen Tons would crush this field if he were to run back to his debut effort against open maiden special weight company. However, the non-effort last time coupled with this drop down to the maiden claiming ranks doesn’t inspire confidence that he can return to that form. This horse was oddly dead on the board last time and he ran to that lack of support. This is a huge drop in class but I can’t justify accepting a short price on a horse whose form is this sketchy. Among the alternatives are a pair of Gary Contessa trainees. Tapizearance figures to be the shorter price since he’s run speed figures that make him fast enough to win this race. However, he’s clearly gone off form in recent starts and this drop in for a tag is not a good sign. He showed very little two back when failing to finish off that race going a mile and then last time he never got involved against a weaker off-the-turf field. Perhaps the sloppy track was an excuse, but I’m wondering if he’s just gone the wrong way after coming into form over the summer. I prefer the other Contessa charge Unbridled John. This horse is making his first start off the claim for this barn and he really only needs to get back to his debut effort to have a shot here. He ran well in that first start at Laurel, closing well to be third in a waiver maiden claiming race that appeared to feature some quality runners. He disappointed in his first start on the NYRA circuit last time but he got the wrong trip that day. He broke a step slowly and was bumped after the start. However, instead of letting him settle at the back of the pack, his rider impatiently sent him up into traffic on the backstretch and he wound up encountering trouble while dealing with the worst of the kickback racing inside. He has more talent than he showed that day and we could see it here if he works out a fair trip.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5