by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 6 - 4 - 1
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 9 - 7
Race 3: 6 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4: 4 - 6 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 1 - 9 - 4 - 10
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 8 - 9
Race 8: 1 - 8 - 4 - 5
Race 9: 2 - 3 - 1 - 7
RACE 2: AWESOME ADVERSARY (#5)
The horses likely to attract the most attention in this race are exiting the Nov. 23 event at this level, won by Saratoga Style via disqualification. Tiger Man finished well clear of Shock Therapy that day, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the public gravitate toward the less-experienced Charlton Baker trainee. While Tiger Man has had many chances and run respectably in a couple of dirt starts, Shock Therapy appears to have more upside off his last effort. After breaking from the rail, he was racing toward the inside down the backstretch and seemed to be discouraged as the horses headed into the turn. He initially dropped back as if he was going to finish nowhere, but he actually may have just wanted to swing outside, as he quickly got back into stride once in the clear and closed for fourth. I think we may see a better effort this time, but I don’t love that race overall and you’re not going to get much value on this guy. I generally want to take horses that are dropping in class in these situations, and Awesome Adversary fits that bill. This runner’s first two dirt starts over the summer were awful, but I think it’s notable that he was gelded after that Sept. 9 race, because his subsequent efforts have been significantly better. It first appeared that he had just improved on turf, but his most recent start going this distance on dirt suggests that he’s just a better racehorse these days. That Nov. 10 field was basically stakes quality in comparison to this mediocre group, and Awesome Adversary did no disgrace to himself in finishing 6th. Those that finished ahead of him have since validated the speed figure, and he finished well clear of some of his common rivals in this spot. If he merely repeats that effort, I think he has a big chance to win this, and the low-profile connections should ensure that he’s a square price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,6,7,9
RACE 4: MISS MARILYN (#4)
The favorites are posted toward the outside in this one-mile maiden event. I suppose Romantic Pursuit is the horse to beat off her encouraging debut effort. She actually broke just fine that day, but she was very slow into stride thereafter, losing contact with the field in the run down the backstretch. Once this filly finally hit her best stride coming to the quarter pole, she did well to pass most of the field, nearly getting up for second on the wire. Stonewalker has a similar profile to Romantic Pursuit, in that she’s stretching out off a third-place finish in a slow race. Given the way she ran in that debut, I think she’s likely to improve going a mile, but the jury’s still out regarding her overall ability. In some ways, Always Shopping is more trustworthy given that she’s already handled the distance. She didn’t show much in her debut at Saratoga, but she took a big step forward last time, making a sustained outside run after getting off the rail. I tend to think that others can surpass if they improve with added distance, but I’m not going to be surprised when she wins. I’m using all of these horses, but I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Miss Marilyn. Generally, I want to stay away from horses that made their debuts in off-the-turf races. However, I want to be somewhat forgiving of this one because I don’t think Miss Marilyn is really meant for the turf. She’s by dirt route sire Bellamy Road and she’s a half-sister to dirt sprinter Phi Beta Express. She didn’t run particularly fast in her debut, but I thought she needed the race. She was inside early and seemed to lose interest on the turn before angling to the center of the track. She’s a big, long-striding filly who probably will need to race into fitness, so I think we’re going to see an improved performance this time.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 6,7,8
RACE 6: ORCHID PARTY (#4)
At first glance, the two main contenders appear to be Gypsy Janie and Blooming. In actuality, if Gyspy Janie repeats either of her last two efforts, she’s probably going to win this race, but she does have some questions to answer. While she handled a fast track last time, she’s generally done her best work over wet surfaces. Furthermore, I worry that she’s just too obvious and may end up going off at a much shorter prices than her body of work really merits. Despite what the speed figures suggest, I don’t think she has much of a margin for error in this race. On the surface of things, Blooming looks like an appealing alternative. She’s relatively lightly raced and is taking an apparent drop in class. However, once you begin to really dive into her form, she becomes less appealing. Do you really want to put much stock in her 1-5 win against an overmatched field at Delaware when she broke her maiden? I realize that she defeated N1X allowance company subsequently, but that came against another weak field at Penn National. She’s been in tougher spots since then, but she also hasn’t run particularly well. I think she’s a bit of a trap as the enticing new face in this race. I’ll use her defensively, but I prefer a more familiar alternative. I think people would be mistaken to just dismiss Orchid Party off her seemingly slow win last time. The Beyer figures have her number absurdly low. I personally would put more stock in her TimeformUS Speed Figure of 89, which is not that much worse than Gypsy Janie’s recent numbers. Prior to that, Orchid Party actually ran quite well two back on Oct. 28. While she lost to Gypsy Janie that day, that rival had everything break in her favor, as the early pace was fast and the track came up wet, whereas Orchid Party had to chase the cheap speed. I think Orchid Party is in deceptively strong form right now, and I don’t mind the recent claim by John Toscano.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,8
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,3,7,8
RACE 7: HOARD (#3)
I am thoroughly confused by this race, both as a morning line-maker and as a handicapper. It’s just hard to know where to begin, or who is the horse to fear. In my estimation, Gravitating deserves to be the favorite and is one that I have to use prominently. Rudy Rodriguez’s horses have been running well lately, and this gelding undoubtedly put forth the best recent effort of any runner in this field. He was facing significantly tougher starter allowance company last time, and actually put in a decent effort to be a close 5th at a huge price. This horse has prior form that would make him awfully tough in this race, but it’s difficult to trust him after he had gone off form for a few starts during the summer. I prefer him to Rudy’s other horse, Double Deep, who has run decently on dirt but is stepping up in class this time. Galatians is another that should be considered, since he ran fast enough to compete here in his last start, and he’s making his first start off the claim for Linda Rice. The problem is that he hasn’t been seen since June, and his win last time was partly due to an unfortunate breakdown in the stretch. I can’t dismiss him, but I don’t view him as a particularly reliable win candidate. Given my issues with the short prices, I want to get a bit more creative. My top pick is Hoard. No, I don’t think this horse is the most likely winner, but I do think he’s fast enough to be competitive against these horses and he’s going to be a generous price. At his best, Hoard is capable of competing against the likes of Gravitating. This one-turn mile trip is clearly his best distance. I thought he ran well enough to be competitive against horses at this level two back and he was just overmatched in his other recent dirt races. Dylan Davis climbs aboard this time, and he should have him placed relatively close to the early pace in a race that doesn’t feature a ton of early speed.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6,8,9
RACE 8: PASSPORTTOVICTORY (#1)
Starlite Mission is a deserving favorite in this race after finishing second to the accomplished New York-bred mare Highway Star in stakes company last time. She’s earned a series of speed figures that would be good enough to win many races at this level, but she’s developing a habit of picking up minor awards. She has shown vastly improved speed in her two most recent starts, but even that has not helped her find the winner’s circle. If she runs her best race, she will likely beat today’s rivals, but I am somewhat concerned about her holding her form. She got good during a time when Gary Contessa’s barn was on fire, but that stable has cooled considerably in recent weeks. The primary alternative is Leah’s Dream, but I think this filly looks better on paper than she actually is. She’s reeled off three consecutive wins at Finger Lakes, and the last of those earned a strong speed figure. Looking through those fields, I don’t think she was facing horses of any real quality, and I believe she’ll be overbet for this return to the NYRA circuit. I’m instead taking a shot with the other Finger Lakes shipper, Passporttovictory. She’s run slower than Leah’s Dream, but I think her last speed figure on Nov. 6 could have been significantly higher, given the competition. Jeremiah Englehart and owner James Riccio have had plenty of success together and I think it’s encouraging that they’re bringing this filly back to the NYRA circuit in allowance company. She’s in much better form these days, and she’s probably going to be a distant third choice in the wagering.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,8
Trifecta: 1 with 4,8 with 4,5,8