by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 3 - 4 - 5
Race 2: 4 - 6 - 7 - 1
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 4 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 8 - 3 - 6 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 8: 1 - 3 - 6 - 7
RACE 3: MARCONI (#2)
I am well aware that Marconi is going to be an overwhelming favorite in this spot, so I can't recommend a win bet on him, or advise you to go nuts with other types of intra-race wagers. However, I do think this is a runner whom you can reasonably lean on in multi-race wagers, such as the Pick-5. Simply put, Marconi is a horse that badly needed his debut, and Todd Pletcher has outstanding numbers with second-time starters in this specific situation. Over the past five years, Pletcher is 11 for 27 (41 percent, $2.60 ROI) with 2-year-old maidens making their second starts in dirt routes after also routing in their debuts. What that says to me is that Pletcher generally debuts his 2-year-olds in route races if they aren't 100 percent prepared, either from a mental or physical perspective, and they win at a high rate second time out once they have that initial experience under their belts. Marconi seems like a perfect candidate for this kind of improvement. He was mentally unprepared for his debut, as he broke slowly from his inside position, and raced very greenly throughout. He almost appeared to be intimidated by the other horses, as he stayed several paths clear of them while racing wide around the far turn. He seemed to get on track late in the stretch, and finished like a horse that will have more to offer in his second start. He’s certainly bred to handle this distance as a half-brother to Mucho Macho Man.
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 1,3,4,5,6
RACE 5: THIRST FOR TRUTH (#3)
There are some distinct class discrepancies among the top contenders in this field. I don’t want horses such as favored Sand City, who has beaten weaker foes and gets a negative barn change. Instead, the horse to beat is probably Pray for Bourbon, who switches surfaces after spending the last few months racing exclusively in turf sprints. Her prior dirt form – all against maiden company – is fine, and she has run speed figures fast enough to make her a top contender in this race on a few occasions. That said, I'm always a little wary of horses like this, since they may no longer prefer a surface that they handled earlier in their careers. My top selection is Thirst for Truth. I realize that the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that may not favor a closer like her, however, I just believe that she is the class of this group. She faced a better field when finishing a closing third in her return at Laurel last time, and she had previously run competitive speed figures earlier in her 3-year-old season. Over the past five years, trainer Cathal Lynch is 20 for 58 (34 percent, $2.13 ROI) with horses going from allowance to claiming company on the dirt.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 4,5,6,7
RACE 7: UNREPENTED (#1)
The clear horse to beat in this spot is Court Dancer, who has run a number of races that would easily beat a field of this quality. Her most recent effort was not one of her better ones, but she was facing a horse, Shimmering Moon, who is in the best form of her career, and she earned a fast speed figure. The main issue that I have with this favorite is the presence of Zealous Scholar just to her outside. Court Dancer, when she’s at her best, is a one-dimensional front-runner. Furthermore, she appears to have some distance limitations, and 6 1/2 furlongs may be somewhat of a stretch for her. Can she withstand early pressure from the very speedy Zealous Scholar and still hold off the closers? It’s certainly possible, but I’m a bit skeptical that she’s worth supporting at what figures to be a very short price. Therefore, I’m taking a shot against her with Unrepented. Overall, she hasn’t run quite as fast as Court Dancer, but she would have a legitimate chance in this race if she can run back to some of the efforts that she put forth last winter. Her return on turf last time seems like it was merely a prep, and she was claimed out of that race by Robertino Diodoro, who gets a 90 Trainer Rating first off the claim. Furthermore, I know she’ll handle the elongated distance of this race since she’s won going both shorter and longer.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL
RACE 8: THADDEUS (#1)
This is a race where you have to decide if you want to take one of the proven routers, whom I find to be undesirable wagers, or one of the sprinters stretching out in distance. Those with experience at this distance include Gotham News and Fielding Gold. They have both run well enough to win races at this level on occasion, but their recent form has not been particularly inspiring. The stretching-out sprinter that many horseplayers will gravitate toward is Deep Sea. His last race was dreadful, but he was claimed out of that effort by Jason Servis, and he must be respected for that fact alone. I’ll certainly use him, but my top pick is Thaddeus. I admit that I have little confidence that this horse really wants to go a mile. However, he has run speed figures that would win at this level, and his last race was not nearly as bad as it seems. The running line comment fails to mention that he was steadied multiple times while racing inside heading into the far turn, and lost all chance when he was shuffled out of position at the half-mile pole. He’s clearly better than that, and I’m hoping that he can use his early speed to control this on the front end.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6,7