PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 1 - 5 - 2
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 3:   2 - 5 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 7 - 5 - 6
Race 5:   2 - 3 - 8 - 5
Race 6:   9 - 3 - 1 - 8
Race 7:   1 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 8:   4 - 8 - 1 - 5
Race 9:   1A - 9 - 10 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: OUTASITE (#2)

I have no argument that Cees Get Degrees (#5) is the horse to beat as he makes his first start on the NYRA circuit. He’s been in excellent form recently, particularly since getting back on dirt in Kentucky this fall. The horse he defeated two back, Mr. Thunderstruck, returned to win his next start, improving his TimeformUS Speed Figure by 8 points. And last time he got run down by a pretty talented rival in what may have been a tougher race at this level. However, I am mildly concerned about the barn change, since David Jacobson is getting this horse from Jonathan Wong, who wins at a high rate. He also has plenty of other speed to deal with in this spot, including a few rivals who may have a bit more upside. Cousin Andrew (#4) figures to take some money once again after he was beaten as the favorite last time against claimers. He didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day, having to pause briefly at the quarter pole before rallying between rivals. He will appreciate any pace that develops up front, and he did win over a sloppy track at Saratoga in July. The likelihood of a wet track could be a concern for my top pick, Outasite (#2). This horse got run down when he returned from a layoff at this level last time. However, he had a right to need a start after having not raced in 9 months. He traveled well until the top of the stretch before just getting tired when put to pressure late. I think he’ll be fitter this time, and I don’t mind the rider switch to apprentice Madison Olver. He gets some weight off, and he seems like a horse who responds to a lighter touch, not requiring particularly strong encouragement when he has his mind on running. The pace is a concern, but at least he figures to be a fair price.

WIN: #2 Outasite, at 7-2 or greater

RACE 7: FUNNY JOKE (#1)

Printrack (#2) is the horse to beat and catch as he seeks to extend his run of good form since getting claimed by trainer Michelle Nevin. In addition to showing improved speed for this barn, he’s also displayed a newfound tenacity in each of his last two starts. He refused to yield when challenged through the stretch two back at Aqueduct. And last time he grudgingly gave way in the last eighth after setting a very fast pace. On TimeformUS Speed Figures, he actually improved to a 107 last time despite settling for second. A repeat of that performance will make him tough to beat, and it’s a good sign that he showed he can handle a sloppy track that day, as he’s likely to encounter similar going here on Friday. The main concern for Printrack is that there is other speed in this field to push him on the front end once again. One horse who should be attending the pace is Good Skate (#5). He’s not as fast as the favorite, but he did earn a competitive speed figure at Saratoga two back. His first start off the claim for new connections last time was disappointing, but he had little chance going 9 furlongs at the N1X level. I like the turnback and slight drop in class, and will be using him. My top pick is Funny Joke (#1). He’s another who is a little light on speed figures compared to Printrack, but I think he can do better here. I didn’t love the trip he got last time when he was just glued to the rail throughout in a race won by a horse who closed outside. That was also a pretty strong $35k claimer and I don’t think he’s meeting a much tougher field despite stepping up off the claim. Most notably, Rob Atras has claimed this horse for Michael Dubb, and they are 6 for 12 (50%, $3.31 ROI) first off the claim together over the past 5 years. He’s also getting this horse from a pair of trainers, Rudy Rodriguez and Orlando Noda, who have been in some slumps recently, whereas the Atras barn has been sending out many live runners lately.

WIN: #1 Funny Joke, at 9-5 or greater
USE: 2,5