PICKS

Race 1:   2 - 6 - 5 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1A - 4
Race 3:   5 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 9 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   1 - 9 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   9 - 8 - 4 - 3
Race 7:   10 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 9:   6 - 7 - 9 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 3: SEVEN LILIES (#5)
Thorny Tale is arguably the horse to beat as he tries this condition again after just missing last month. It’s often wise to be skeptical of Jamie Ness horses with strong Parx form shipping into this circuit. However, this gelding did bring some semblance of that form to Aqueduct last time, gamely battling back after getting passed by Prince of Pharoahs in the stretch. He will be tough with a similar effort here, but he could have to deal with the speed of Yankee Division on the front end. This Rudy Rodriguez trainee is the wild card in this field. He’s clearly good enough to beat these runners with one of his best efforts, but his recent form has been abysmal. That said, you can make some excuses for him. He actually didn’t run that badly on July 25 behind some talented rivals. He then caught a sealed track, which he’s never handled, at Finger Lakes. And he was never going to be competitive with Speaker’s Corner last time. Dropping him in for the $45k tag is probably the right move and he handles this distance. I’m scared of him, but it’s impossible to have any confidence. I’m going in a different direction with Seven Lilies. This horse has to prove that he’s good enough to compete with runners at this level, but his recent form has been heading in the right direction. He’s shown steady improvement since the claim by Rob Atras, and was a dominant winner last time, showing improved tactical speed. Atras is a fantastic 22 for 60 (37%, $2.62 ROI) with last-out winners on dirt at Aqueduct over the past 5 years. This horse has had success going longer in the past and ran a huge race going 7 furlongs here last year, so I’m not that concerned about the distance at what should be a fair price.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,6

RACE 6: ROOSKI (#9)
Slow Crossing could go favored after winning her debut at Belmont. She lacked some early speed getting into stride despite a hustling ride, but responded when put to serious pressure while angling wide off the turn. There were some big gaps behind her in a strung-out field, so she may have run well even if there wasn’t much behind her. She’s bred to have ability as a half-sister to solid New York-bred performers Too Early ($218k) and John's Island ($413k). The only slight negative is that she’s offered for a tag once again even after that solid debut victory. I prefer her to Rudy’s other runner Saratoga Kisses, who beat an awful field when she broke her maiden. No More Mischief could also attract support but she comes out of a slower race for Todd Pletcher. Lady Milagro is a bit more interesting at a square price since she has run deceptively well in a few of her defeats and has a chance to improve returning to dirt. Yet my top pick is Finger Lakes maiden winner Rooski. This filly began her career on turf, putting in a series of respectable efforts against NY-bred maiden special weight foes. She switched to dirt at Finger Lakes last time and delivered a solid 78 TimeformUS Speed Figure while winning easily by 7 lengths. While she's by good turf influence Tourist, her damside pedigree is geared more towards dirt. The Jeremiah Englehart barn had been quiet at NYRA for the past few months, but he is 9 for 21 (43%, $3.98 ROI) with last-out maiden winners in NYRA dirt sprints over the past 5 years.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,4,8
Trifecta: 9 with 4,8 with 3,4,6,8

RACE 8: FIRING CAROL (#7)
This is among the weakest open N1X allowance events that you’ll see contested on the NYRA circuit, so I want to approach it with an open mind. I suppose Eloquent Speaker is one of the horses to beat as she wheels back in 6 days off the claim for Natalia Lynch. She got back on track with one of her better efforts off the layoff last time, but I don’t fully trust her to repeat that performance as she returns on short rest. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows Bastet on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, but it’s pretty hard to endorse her winning at this level even off an improved effort for Ed Barker last time. She’s just a little cheap and has never been that reliable. Jades Gelly would be a perfect fit for this race off her dirt efforts at Saratoga this summer. She’s gone the wrong way recently but perhaps she’s just been looking to get back on the main track. I think she’s most interesting of the logical players, but I want to get more creative. Firing Carol may be tough for some to endorse given her trainer’s winless record on the year and the fact that she’s ridden by a low-percentage jockey. However, she’s run some of the best speed figures in the field, and she’s one of the only horses in this race with experience against legitimate allowance company. She faced some very good horses in Caramel Swirl, Glass Ceiling, and Goodnight Olive in her recent starts at this level. She didn’t get particularly close to any of those foes, but she did run well enough to pick up minor awards on a few occasions. Her last couple of races look poor, but she doesn’t want 9 furlongs against Grade 3 company and last time she got caught in traffic and kickback when making her run. She figures to be a square price and she can certainly win this with her good efforts.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,3,4,5