by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 1 - 5 - 3
Race 3: 8 - 7 - 5 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 2 - 7 - 11
Race 5: 6 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 6: 10 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 7: 6 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 8: 7 - 6 - 1 - 5
Race 9: 1 - 3 - 5 - 10
RACE 1: SANDY BELLE (#1)
China Rider is likely to go off as a decisive favorite in what is an otherwise confusing race. This filly is clearly more of a turf horse, but she did run some respectable dirt races for her prior connections. Yet none of that really matters now, since she’s been claimed by Jason Servis, who has a stellar record in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 14 for 42 (33 percent, $3.06 ROI) first off the claim in dirt sprints at NYRA. The biggest problem for China Rider is probably her running style. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, with her trailing the field in the early going. That’s definitely cause for concern, but Jason Servis does have a knack for getting these horses to be forwardly placed off the claim. I’m using her prominently, but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet. My top selection is Sandy Belle. The Pace Projector doesn’t show her leading the field early, but that’s primarily based on her last two efforts, where she failed to make it to the front. One of those was on turf, and she had some trouble at the star the time before that, so I can excuse her for those performances. I like the claim by John Toscano, who has been having a relatively strong Aqueduct meet compared to the rest of his year. Sandy Belle has definitely been inconsistent in recent starts, but she showed a real affinity for Aqueduct’s main track last year. Furthermore, she’s not hindered by a little moisture in the track, and there is heavy rain predicted into Friday’s card. If Reylu Gutierrez can hustle her to the lead from the inside, I believe she will have a big chance to pull off the upset. The other horse that I would want to use prominently in exotics is Three Illusions. She’s run a number of competitive speed figures and has faced marginally tougher company in most of her recent starts.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,6,7
RACE 3: SIMONA (#8)
I found this race to be extremely confusing, with no clear-cut favorite. I suppose Solitary Gem is the horse to beat, since she has the fastest speed figures. Her performance at this level on Oct. 19 at Belmont would certainly beat this field, but I have some doubts that she can get back to such an effort. She received a very favorable trip riding a strong rail bias that day, and her subsequent disappointment last month does not inspire confidence. Malarkey was in a difficult spot going a distance that is too far for her last time, so I’m willing to excuse that effort. She actually finished ahead of Solitary Gem when second at this level two back, and her early speed could make her dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the front-runners, and this A. C. Avila trainee should work out a good trip stalking just outside of Speed Khaleesi. I don’t fully trust either of these potential short prices, so I’m taking a shot with Simona. She’s hard to recommend off her recent form, but I think there’s a chance that she can rebound this time. While she was facing straight 3-year-olds last time, that was actually a tougher spot than this one, and I thought she ran a bit better than the finishing position might suggest. She was hustled up to contest the pace inside, never got a breather, and faded late in a race that was dominated by horses making outside moves. That performance was a marked improvement over her prior efforts for James Ryerson, and I think there’s a chance that she can improve again for the new barn. I found an interesting stat for Rudy Rodriguez that applies to this filly: Over the past five years, his barn is 15 for 68 (22 percent, $3.21 ROI) second off the claim on the dirt with horses that were out of the money in their first start off the claim. That tells me that he typically spots these runners appropriately when they run back. At a bigger price, Mazmania is a longshot that I want throw in underneath. She doesn't figure to get enough pace to close into to actually win the race, but she likes a wet track and could pick up a piece.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 3,4,5,7
Trifecta: 8 with 5,7 with 3,4,5,7
RACE 6: ACCABONAC HARBOR (#10)
There is not much form to analyze in this wide-open maiden claiming race. I suppose that Joansburntbiscuit has a right to contend off her Finger Lakes speed figures, but I don’t think she was facing fields of any real quality. Furthermore, six furlongs may be stretching her to the limit after she’s faded going shorter. Some may perceive this as a drop in class, but I believe it’s more of a lateral move. Beyond her, there just isn’t much to like about those with dirt experience. I suppose Call It a Truce could contend if she ever gets back to her debut, but her wet track performances have been abysmal. This seems like the right race for a first-time starter, and I definitely want to use Dontcallmefrancis in some capacity. This filly really has more of a turf pedigree, but Gary Gullo has strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 31 (26 percent, $4.20 ROI) with maiden-claiming first-time starters in dirt sprints. She will be on my tickets, but my top pick is Accabonac Harbor. This filly began her career on turf at Saratoga, but her connections may have just been giving her a race, since she’s really not bred for grass. It’s taken some time for her to get back to the races, but I think she’s returning at the right level and Chris Englehart has fantastic stats with this move. Over the past five years, he is 7 for 14 (50 percent, $5.00 ROI) with maidens switching from turf to dirt sprints at NYRA. Dylan Davis just has to hustle this filly out of the gate and hope to outrun the speeds to their inside.
Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 4,7,8
RACE 7: FLED (#6)
I suppose Javelin is the horse to beat given his overall consistency and a string of speed figures that would win most races at this level. However, he hasn’t been seen in over 6 months and he’s now dropping down to the lowest level of his career. His two prior starts off shorter layoffs have been lackluster, but he may be aided by the prospect of a sloppy track, given that his best performances have come on wet surfaces. I have to use him, but he’s difficult to trust. Can’tweallgetalong is another runner that merits serious consideration, but I can’t shake the feeling that he was a proverbial “last time was the time” horse. He was dismissed at a ludicrous 15-1 last time in a race where he seemed like a perfectly logical contender. The pace never materialized that day, and he was able to wire the field. He’s another that won’t mind a little moisture in the surface, but I feel that even his best effort may not be quite good enough to beat this field. I want to get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Fled. This horse did not garner much respect in an off-the-turf race in November, but he actually did fairly well to be second behind runaway winner Fuel the Bern. That runner returned to win Thursday with an improved effort, and I think there’s evidence to suggest that Nov. 17 race they exist was stronger than it appeared at first glance. A wet track is definitely no issue for this horse, since he’s made far more starts on off tracks than fast tracks in his career. Trainer Miguel Vera doesn’t send many horses to NYRA, but he’s had some success here. Furthermore, he does very well with his dropdowns, winning with 6 of 18 horses dropping in claiming price by 50% or more over the past 5 years ($2.48 ROI). The Pace Projector is predicting that Fled will work out a favorable stalking trip in a race predicted to favor the front-runners, and he should be a square price once again.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,5
RACE 8: SIR BALLANTINE (#7)
It will be interesting to see how the public bets this race, with contenders coming in from so many different directions. I suppose the horse to beat is Tommy T, since he has earned superior speed figures to many of his rivals. This Shackleford gelding has been solid in every start of his career and figures to show up with yet another good effort. I’ve sometimes been wary of him since he’s needed so much time between starts, so it’s probably a good sign that he’s now putting races back to back. The major question for him is the distance, since he’s never gone farther than 7 furlongs. That said, the pace could be in his favor, since the Pace Projector is predicting that he should be able to secure a clear early lead. I’m using him, but I prefer others at slightly better prices. Title Ready is one that must be included after his solid effort in the Grade 3 Discovery last time. That was a very small field, but he did finish ahead of Belmont Stakes runner-up Gronkowski. He earned a competitive speed figure for the performance, but I never thought he was a real threat to the geared-down winner that day. Furthermore, I get the feeling that he’s probably better around two turns. Thebigfundamental is a wild card in this field. Todd Pletcher has fantastic numbers off layoffs in dirt routes, but his recent record with bringing back older horses like this is cause for concern. I’m leaving him out. My top pick is Sir Ballantine. I’m not sure that he’s going to get as much pace to close into as last time, but he does possess the ability to sit a bit closer to the pace if need be. They tried stretching him out over the summer, but he’s proven to be best going a mile around one turn. I thought he made a good late run at the improving Plainsman last time, and Danny Gargan’s runners have been firing on all cylinders lately.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 7 with 1,6 with 1,5,6,8