by TimeformUS Analyst David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 1 - 5 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 2 - 5 - 6 - 1
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 5: 3 - 1 - 5 - 8
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 10 - 6 - 7
Race 8: 5 - 2B - 9 - 3
Race 9: 4 - 3 - 6 - 9
RACE 2: STEVE’S IMAGE (#1)
The horse to beat is Mighty Zealous, who is one of two horses racing first off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. Unlike his less-fancied stablemate Bluegrass Prevails, Mighty Zealous has already been running speed figures that would win races at this level while in lower-percentage barns. If he improves at all for Rudy, he’ll be awfully tough for this field to handle. He will be a short price, and legitimately so. I’ll use him prominently, but I want to bet on a horse that figures to offer better value. Steve’s Image is an interesting contender, because he’s a bit of a wild card. He comes into this having run the fastest last-out speed figure in the field (87 Beyer and 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure). The problem is that he did so at Finger Lakes in a 5 1/2-furlong race. While I think it’s right to be a little skeptical about whether he can repeat that effort going longer at NYRA, I do think that was a valid number. It’s right in line with what the horses behind him were running, and he was visually impressive that day, powering away through the stretch. This is a horse who has occasionally run competitive numbers in the past, so it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise that he could get back to those races for Charlton Baker, who knows how to keep good horses in form. Over the past five years, he is 22 for 98 (22 percent, $2.84 ROI) in dirt sprints at NYRA with last-out winners. I get the sense that Baker claimed a horse with issues, took him to Finger Lakes to get him back on track, and is now returning him to the NYRA circuit in the best form of his career. Furthermore, there isn’t much early speed in this field, and the Pace Projector is predicting that Steve’s Image will be clearly in front early in a situation favoring the leader.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,5 with 1,5 with ALL
RACE 3: BOMBSHELL (#2)
The two fillies likely to attract the most attention are posted towards the outside in this six-runner field. Dawn the Destroyer and Friend of Liberty figure to vie for favoritism, but both must prove that they can reproduce their best form over fast tracks. Dawn the Destroyer encountered three sloppy tracks in a row when achieving the highlights on her resume, while Friend of Liberty reached a career-best speed figure when also encountering a sloppy track last time. I think you have to use both of these fillies, but the lingering questions lead me to look elsewhere for value. I’m interested in Bombshell on the turnback in distance. I think it’s fair to question how far this filly really wants to go, as she doesn’t seem to get better as the distances get longer. Her sprint efforts, especially those at 6 1/2 or 7 furlongs, are actually quite good. She stumbled badly at the start when she went this distance three back in the Shine Again at Laurel, and still rallied well for fourth while earning the best speed figure of her career. Last time at Parx, she was the only horse to make an effective late run from the back of the pack despite going extremely wide. I think she’s coming into this race in solid form, and I find her to be more trustworthy than some shorter prices.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,5,6
RACE 5: PAID ADMISSION (#3)
Point Hope was installed as the morning-line favorite off the strength of his win over $12,500 claimers last time. The problem is that it’s been nearly two months since that victory, and he was coming off a three-month layoff prior to that race. What has been keeping him off the racetrack since the summer, and can we expect another strong effort given his lack of recent form? I’m a bit skeptical, and I instead prefer two runners coming out of a different race. Praetereo and Paid Admission raced against each other last time, and are both taking slight drops in class as they return here. The main track at Aqueduct was strongly favoring front-runners on Nov. 16, so both of these horses were badly compromised by their trips. Praetereo now switches into the barn of Rudy Rodriguez, so he’s likely to attract some attention here, but I actually prefer Paid Admission at a more attractive price. At first glance it might seem like he regressed for Ray Handal last time, but he actually ran quite well closing into the speed bias. Prior to that, he had been in great form, and he seems to do his best running at this one-turn mile distance. If speeds Bluegrass Singer and Nonna’s Boy hook up in the early going, he should get a fair pace to close into.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5,8
RACE 8: BOLITA BOYZ (#5)
This remains the most intriguing race on the card, even after expected scratches (parts of both entries, Harlan Punch and Helooksthepart, are entered back on Saturday). The most interesting horse in this race is the 3-year-old Local Hero, who returns from the layoff and drops in class after racing against some of the best horses in his age group through the spring and summer. I have mixed feelings about this horse. On one hand, I’ve always thought that he deserved a chance to try his hand at sprinting given his ample early speed. However, it bothers me that his last couple of efforts in May and June were so dull. Furthermore, he’s going to be the favorite in all likelihood, despite the fact that he would need to run the fastest race of his career to beat this field. Another difficult horse to assess is Pete’s Play Call. If he repeats his last effort on Nov. 26, his first off a three-month layoff, the other horses in this field are probably running for second. He grudgingly fought the talented Favorable Outcome to the wire that day, earning a career- best speed figure. However, now he must cut back to six furlongs, and it’s not as if he had run nearly that well at any other point in his career. He’s only 4, so it’s possible that he’s just now improving. Nevertheless, I want to see it again. There is speed in this race, and the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, due to an expected early duel between Phi Beta Express and Still Krz. I’m hoping some pace develops, because I’m most interested in Bolita Boyz. I know this horse looks a little cheaper than some of the others in here, but I think we can reasonably expect improvement. He’s been compromised by slow paces in a few of his recent efforts. He didn’t get the best trip when beaten by today’s rival Very Very Stella three back, and then regressed off the claim by David Donk last time. Now he moves into the barn of Rudy Rodriguez, who has fantastic numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 12 for 26 (46 percent, $3.73 ROI) first off the claim on the dirt with horses running back for claiming tags of $40,000 or greater. Basically, when Rudy gets an expensive claim into his barn, they typically deliver.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,9,10
RACE 9: LUTHERAN RAGS (#4)
Forward Motion has a lot going for him in this race. He’s trained by Linda Rice and ridden by Irad Ortiz, who have combined to win races in bunches over the past several weeks. Linda Rice has fantastic numbers with her second-time starting maidens switching from turf to dirt, winning with 13 of 35 (37 percent) such runners over the past five years ($3.58 ROI). His debut was solid, albeit at six furlongs on grass, and he finished up like a horse that should appreciate the stretch-out in distance. That said, he’s going to be an awfully short price considering that he’s trying a new surface for the first time. I’m inclined to try and beat him with one of the alternatives, and the runner that interests me most is Lutheran Rags. This horse has never gone farther than six furlongs, but there’s reasonable evidence to suggest he can stretch out. He’s by Union Rags and is out of a dam that produced 6-time route winner Lutheran Miss. He steps up in class, but his last race against maiden claiming company is better than it seems. He was steadied out of position when in tight quarters on the backstretch, and then again encountered traffic when attempting to rally in the lane. He was still running on well late despite that trouble, and his prior effort suggests he may have more to offer.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,6,9