PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 5 - 1
Race 2:   6 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4:   1 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 6:   4 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 7:   6 - 9 - 11 - 5
Race 8:   1 - 8 - 9 - 7

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: GYPSY JO (#6)
Spiral Bound will go off as the favorite in this race, merely because she’s a second-time starter trained by Linda Rice. Indeed, the Rice barn has fantastic numbers with second-time-starting maidens. However, Spiral Bound was not facing a particularly accomplished field in her debut, and she did not put forth much of an effort. She can win this if she steps forward like so many Rice horses do, but I don’t think she’s a very good bet as the favorite. I’m also not enamored with the runners that have been toiling away at this $25,000 level for multiple starts, so I’ll instead try another new face. Gyspy Jo makes her first start against maiden claiming company after four races at the special weight level. She didn’t handle a sloppy track in her debut, but her second start back in July suggests that she might have a chance here. That day, she got involved in a three-way duel through solid early fractions before fading, while beaten by runners that are clearly her superiors. This time there is not much early speed signed on, so she could find herself controlling affairs on the front end. She obviously needs to run a faster dirt race than she’s ever run before, but sometimes these cheaper horses can get brave up front if left alone on the lead. It certainly doesn’t hurt to have leading rider Irad Ortiz aboard.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4

RACE 7: H MAN (#6)
This is easily the most intriguing race on the Friday card, as it is full of viable contenders – all of whom seemingly have significant questions to answer. The likely favorite is Ransom Note, who goes out for the ever-dangerous Linda Rice barn. While he was beaten by a few of today’s rivals last time, it was his first start in six months. Rice has good statistics with horses making their second start off a layoff, and Ransom Note worked out a mildly uncomfortable trip racing down inside through the second half of the race. This time, he figures to show more speed. I’ll use him, but I don’t think he’s necessarily a great wager as the favorite. Proletariat is another logical runner to consider, but he is difficult to trust as he makes his first start since getting vanned off when last seen in March. I would rather take a different horse coming off an extended layoff: H Man, who went off form earlier this year and has been on the shelf since a dull performance at Saratoga in July. However, he was claimed back just prior to that race by Jeremiah Englehart, for whom he had produced some of his best efforts. After giving him that one Spa start, Englehart put him away, presumably to get his form turned around. It’s a pattern that has worked for this barn. Over the past five years, Englehart is 7 for 14 (50 percent, $4.53 ROI) second off the claim in dirt sprints with horses coming off layoffs of 50 days or more – and a number of runners in that sample were laid up for much longer than 50 days. When H Man is in form, he’s certainly capable of winning races at this level. Furthermore, his early speed should give him an advantage in a race where the other pace players may be lacking quality.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,5,9,11