by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2: 6 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 4: 4 - 7 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 7 - 10 - 1
Race 6: 6 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 7: 1 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 8: 5 - 8 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 5 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 10: 10 - 3 - 2 - 4
RACE 3: COOL LAOBAN (#3)
Midnight Worker is probably the horse to beat as he gets back on turf in this allowance optional claimer. His lone prior grass start came against stakes foes in the Grade 3 Futurity, and he acquitted himself well, running on mildly for fourth. That form was flattered when Slipstream returned to run decently in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, though some others have not come back to run as well out of that race. He makes plenty of sense, but there are others to consider at better prices. Pure Panic has a right to do better after a perplexingly poor performance in the Atlantic Beach last time. He did stumble at the start, but that was a speed-dominated race in which a couple of notable players didn’t show up. I won’t be surprised if he rebounds here. Yet I want to go in a different direction with the New York-bred Cool Laoban. This horse clearly needed a start in his debut when he chased the pace and faded. He was more professional next time out when he kindly rated off the pace and ran down a solid field going this distance. I don’t care about the dirt experiment last time, and now he’s getting back on the right surface. He could also get somewhat ignored due to the recent trainer switch to Chris Englehart, whose horses tend to not get bet that strongly on the turf.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,6,7
RACE 4: VIOLENT VIXEN (#4)
I’m not a big fan of the likely favorites in this race. Heels Together may look appealing at first glance, but she’s a little hard to trust off the long layoff. Christophe Clement is just 5 for 38 (13%, $0.58 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more on dirt over 5 years. I’m also not convinced that this horse is necessarily very good. She got a decent trip in her debut and just stayed on mildly against a mediocre field. She was supposed to do better at Tampa last when facing a pretty weak group. If she’s a short price I want others. I also don’t see why I’m supposed to love the Chad Brown / Klaravich Stables entry. Default Protection is probably the stronger runner as a half-sister to solid sprinter Square Shooter. However, it’s taken her an awfully long time to get to the races and Chad is often overbet with these types. Among the firsters I’m more interested in Our Jessica. Her stakes-placed dam Cody Samora debuted as a 3-year-old and won that race by over 16 lengths before going on to a nice career. Her only foal to race is debut winner Giant Stella. David Donk doesn’t have great numbers with firsters, but it’s pretty interesting that he’s running this New York-bred against open company. And that Nov. 3 bullet workout from the gate jumps off the page. I’m using her, but my top pick is Violent Vixen. I want a horse with experience and she seems like as good an option as any. It’s taken her a little while to come around, but I think she’s proving that dirt sprinting may be what she’s wanted to do all along. She showed improved speed last time out and did well to put away favored Lady Valentine before getting run down by a firster. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the best number in this field. She probably won’t get the lead from Madame Rose, but she should get first run on that overmatched rival, and she also figures to be a square price.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,7
RACE 5: EVIDENCE BASED (#4)
I’m not thrilled with the horses coming out of the Nov. 11 race at this level. I suppose Perhaps Tonight is the one you want from that affair as she closed for second after a wide trip. However, that race was won by a horse coming out inferior maiden affairs and I’m just skeptical of the quality of that field. I prefer a couple of others. The intriguing new face is Empty Nest, who ships in from Laurel for trainer Brittany Russell. She was a very impressive maiden winner two back when she dominated $16k claimers by over 10 lengths. She was understandably bet down to favoritism in an optional claiming off that performance but she couldn’t repeat the effort with a different pace scenario. They really pushed the early tempo in that Oct. 24 affair, as all the speeds collapsed in a race dominated by closers. She’s better than that, and I think she can rebound here with a more favorable setup. The problem is that there is other speed signed on once again, and she may just be a horse who needs to have things go her way. I instead sided with a closer. Evidence Based is getting needed class relief after facing nothing but starter allowance company since she broke her maiden. While it doesn’t seem like she’s improved since the trainer switch to Jorge Abreu, she’s run better than it appears in her last two starts. She was never inside two back at Saratoga against a much tougher field than this. And then last time the pace never developed and she was never in a position to make an impact rated at the back of the pack. The pace has to be quicker this time and she figures to be a decent price off her string of poor results even as she drops in class.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,7,10,11
RACE 6: BIG BEAN CHRISTINE (#6)
Candy Light is probably the horse to beat off a near miss in her debut at Laurel. It’s unclear how strong that field was, but she did close nicely to get up for second, as it’s not like that race was completely falling apart at the end. However, she’s almost certainly meeting a better field here, and she’s going to be favored off that appealing running line with Jose Ortiz climbing aboard. Martini’s Amica actually might have run a better turf race in her last start despite finishing fourth. That Aqueduct maiden event looked like a pretty strong affair and this filly put in a nice late run in a speed-dominated race. She won’t be anything near that 76-1 she was last time, but she just makes a ton of sense off that last performance. That said, I want to go for a bigger price with a first time turfer. Big Bean Christine is a New York-bred facing open company here, but it’s not as if this is the toughest maiden event you’ll see at this level. She also comes out of what might be a pretty strong state-bred affair when she debuted here on Nov. 12. She showed some decent early speed that day but was also chasing towards the inside on a day when you didn’t want to be on the rail. She’s bred to excel on turf as a daughter of 15% turf sprint sire Point of Entry out of dam who has produced turf graded stakes winner Hangover Kid. She’ll be a square price due to the connections, but I think she might have the ability to contend here if she shows the expected improvement with the surface switch.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,4,5,7,11
RACE 7: STEAM ENGINE (#1)
Gold Panda is the horse to beat as he takes another crack at this N2X allowance condition for New York-breds. However, it is somewhat troubling that he lost as the 1-2 favorite last time in a 5-horse field that looked like his race to lose. I know his connections have said that he wasn’t comfortable racing on the lead, but that seems like a poor excuse considering that he got away with slow early fractions. Apparently the plan is to take him off the pace here, and they will probably have to do so with other speed in the field. He was very good over the summer at Saratoga, but I have some doubts about whether he can get back to that form at a short price. I still prefer him to Big Bobby, who was second best to this horse two back and wasn’t that impressive despite winning against inferior company last time. While there are a few speeds signed on, I’m skeptical that this pace will be that fast. Gold Panda is expected to rate, and I can’t imagine that the connections of Winners Laugh will be that aggressive off the layoff. That could leave Steam Engine in a controlling position. This gelding is naturally quickest of the group anyway, and he showed that he still has some run in his legs two back at Monmouth. He regressed at this level last time at Belmont, but that may have been a stronger race than the speed figures indicate. I like the claim by Linda Rice, and now he’s getting back to Aqueduct where he’s run some of his best races. He could get somewhat ignored in the face of a few lightly raced rivals but he’s as good as anyone in this field on his best day.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 4,5,6,7
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 4,5,6
RACE 9: VETTORI KIN (#5)
This $25k claimer is a wide open affair and it features a few runners with back class. The most notable dropdown in the field is Summer to Remember, who figures to vie for favoritism as he drops in for the lowest claiming tag of his career. He’s faced much better horses in his recent starts and he didn’t get the most clever ride last time. He was sent forward as if he was going to secure the lead, but then he was taken in hand when another rival ranged up outside and he ended up getting too keen in behind horses. I won’t be surprised if he rebounds here, but I didn’t want to settle for a short price in this field. Jack the Cat and Outrageous Bet both make sense after completing an exacta at this level back in September. Jack the Cat tried optional claimers after that whereas Outrageous Bet ran well against tougher claimers before failing to deliver on the turnback last time. Both should get favorable pace setups here, but I slightly prefer Jack the Cat due to his prior success at Aqueduct. I want to get more creative with a horse who may just be in solid form right now. Vettori Kin finished behind those two aforementioned rivals at this level back in September. He clearly wasn’t doing well for a period of months this summer, so it’s understandable that Rob Atras dropped him into some cheap races at the Meadowlands recently. Yet he actually faced some decent fields there, and he was best on both occasions. He should have won two back when he got fouled in mid-stretch, and last time he made a strong late bid to get up over Boru, who returned to just miss in a tougher spot at Aqueduct next time. I don’t mind him moving back up in class now given his strong prior form. If Rob Atras has him heading back in the right direction he’s a major player here at a decent price.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,7,12