by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 8
Race 2: 3 - 10 - 7 - 5
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 5 - 1A
Race 4: 9 - 6 - 1 - 2
Race 5: 6 - 12 - 3 - 8
Race 6: 9 - 4 - 1 - 7
Race 7: 1/1A - 4 - 10 - 9
Race 8: 9 - 2 - 4 - 14
Race 9: 1 - 7 - 4 - 11
RACE 4: MR PHIL (#9)
This is an odd race in that most of the major contenders appear to be either off form or switching surfaces. I suppose a horse like Jake Rocks has to be considered a player based solely on his performance at Saratoga two back. He nearly got up to win that day, but he was facing a field of turf horses and didn’t earn a particularly compelling speed figure. Furthermore, his prior dirt form is hardly consistent and he appears to prefer turf. Ye I still trust him more than another surface switch, Sneakiness, who just appears to have lost his form since returning from a layoff. Perhaps Stanhope is a little interesting getting back to dirt. His only prior start on this surface came in his career debut and it was a solid effort behind a subsequent stakes winner. I’m using him, but I’m worried about the presence of other speed. I want to look for better value, and perhaps the best price of all will be Mr Phil. He, too, was considerably off form when last seen. Yet he was facing tougher company in most of those summer starts, particularly when he returned at Belmont and last time at Parx. The winner of that most recent start in August was in the midst of quite a run at the time, and a number of horses who were well-beaten that day have returned to run improved speed figures in subsequent starts. Furthermore, Mr Phil showed a real affinity for this Aqueduct surface when he ran here last year.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,6
RACE 5: A LIFE THAT’S GOOD (#6)
The horse to beat in this full field of maiden special weight runners is probably Bustinmygroove, who makes her second career start for Danny Gargan. She took quite a bit of money in her debut to be bet down to 7-2, and she showed some signs of ability. She had good tactical speed, but found herself in a somewhat uncomfortable spot rating inside and behind the leader on the far turn. Manny Franco attempted to angle her off the rail in upper stretch, but she took a couple of very awkward strides as she appeared to get tangled and lose momentum. It’s taken her two months to get back to the races, but she comes in with a series of solid workouts and must be respected. Yet I prefer another filly with experience. A Life That’s Good switches surfaces after making her career debut on turf in late October. She flashed good early speed, leading through the opening stages before fading in the stretch at 7 furlongs. The pace of that race was pretty honest, and a number of horses, including those involved in the pace, have come back out of that heat to improve their speed figures next time. This filly has an additional hurdle to overcome as she tries dirt, but this is the surface that she’s bred to handle. Her dam was a 15-time turf winner, and her only sibling to race is the dirt stakes winner I Still Miss You. Jeremiah Englehart is a decent 5-for-19 (26%, $1.76 ROI) with second time starting maidens going from turf to dirt sprints over the past 5 years. She’s my top pick, but I’d also use some of the firsters with her. Hip Number One looked pretty good in her Fasig-Tipton workout and is a half-sister to some decent dirt runners, while Gracefully Wild also worked very well at her 2-year-old sale and goes out for a barn that is capable with youngsters.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,8,11,12
RACE 8: SAN JUAN DIEGO (#9)
This race becomes even more confusing after the scratch of vulnerable favorite Vineyard Sound. Wegotoldyougotsold is the obvious alternative, but I have some questions about him as well. He’s not the most consistent sort, but at least he’s likely to get back on another wet track, which he won over last time. He’s a viable contender, but he could face a tough pace situation breaking from the rail. There’s a lot of speed signed on and the TimeformUS Pace Projector that three others in this field are quicker than him early. Once we get past the favorites, I think we can get a little more creative, and I want a closer. The horse that interests me most at a price is San Juan Diego. I know he ran poorly when he returned to Aqueduct last time, but he was facing a slightly tougher field of New York-breds than day. He also didn’t get the most comfortable trip, continually getting shuffled back behind a moderate pace. He had previously run well at Aqueduct last winter and his recent Finger Lakes form stands up fairly well against the rest of these, assuming the favorite regresses. I acknowledge that he’s not a likely winner, but I expect him to outrun his odds.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 2,4,14
RACE 9: MAKE IT IN NY (#1)
The likely short prices in this maiden claiming finale don’t do much for me. Another Shot looks pretty logical at first glance. Yet this colt hasn’t really run any faster than some others sprinting and it’s not clear that added distance is supposed to help him based on his pedigree. Among the favorites, Wicked Easy is slightly more appealing. He began his career on turf, and didn’t run that badly either time while never threatening. He was sent off as the favorite when switched to the dirt at Finger Lakes and rallied steadily after a slow start. All of his siblings, including stakes winner More Mischief, have been best on dirt, so perhaps this is where his future lies. I’ll use him, but I prefer a couple of others. Mindfreak strikes me as one that should take a step forward on the class drop. He had no chance to close into a moderate pace going 6 furlongs on turf in his debut, and last time he found himself in a pretty salty maiden event for the level, as winner Work Out earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Furthermore, fifth-place finisher Re Created (beaten 27 lengths) returned to win here last weekend with a 76. Mike Maker is 14 for 42 (33%, $2.36 ROI) with 2-year-olds going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming races on dirt over the past 5 years. He’s a major part of my play, but the horse that intrigues me most is Make It In Ny. That 35-length debut defeat looks dismal, even for this field, but there may be reasons to give him a closer look. He was very sluggish early in that debut, immediately losing contact with the field. Junior Alvarado applied some token early pressure and then just sat there, appearing to ease the horse. Yet at about the three-sixteenths pole, Junior shook him up and asked him for run, and the horse suddenly took off. Trakus indicates he ran his final sixteenth in 5.80 seconds (the equivalent of a 23.2 quarter). The fact that he put in no effort for the first part of the race contributed to that fast final split, but this horse may possess more ability than the result indicates. Now he drops in class against a weak field, and returns as a new gelding.
Win/Place: 1
Exacta Box: 1,4,7
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 9,10,11