PICKS

Races 2, 3, and 8 are off the turf. Race 9 picks are still for turf.

Race 1:   6 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2:   5 - 8 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 3 - 10
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 5:   10 - 12 - 2 - 9
Race 6:   11 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 7:   3 - 2 - 9 - 1
Race 8:   15 - 13 - 6 - 12
Race 9:   10 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 10:   12 - 13 - 7 - 11

PLAYS

RACE 6: SANDY LANE (#11)
This is one of the most perplexing races of the day as the favorites don’t look particularly trustworthy and there really isn’t anyone that you can totally count out. (That’s why I’ve picked one of the longest shots on the board, but I’ll get to him shortly.) The Rudy Rodriguez entry figures to take plenty action for no other reason than the fact that you’re getting two for the price of one. Both Shalako and Harv Won’t Tap are contenders in their own right, but neither one looks all that formidable here. I prefer Shalako of the pair since at least he’s coming off a solid effort at the distance. He’ll be in the mix if he merely repeats that performance, but it’s not as if Rudy got him back to his best form off the trainer switch and he’s struggled with consistency lately. Harv Won’t Tap seems a bit more dubious, as his form has completely fallen apart lately. The most inscrutable runner in this might be Tour de Force, who would probably win this race by about 10 lengths if he showed up with his top effort. However, he was claimed away from Rudy by Dave Cannizzo during the summer and his one start for this new barn was an utter disaster. Now he’s dropping down to a claiming level that is one-quarter of the amount he was claimed for in August, so alarm bells are ringing and red flags are being raised. I just can’t take a horse like this, but of course he can win. I wouldn’t completely discount others with back class, like Gypsum Johnny or Purimeter or Big Thicket, but none of them get the pulse racing. So, as mentioned at the top, I want to get a bit more creative. My top pick is Sandy Lane, who will be a massive price due to the low-percentage connections. However, you can’t deny that this trainer has turned around his form since the summer. His return effort in October wasn’t bad at all, and he might have finished closer with a stronger ride. Then last time, he was never going to be a threat to Data Driven, but he nearly got up for second at this level with a 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That number puts him squarely in the mix if he can repeat it, and now he’s stretching out to what is arguably his best distance. He’s hardly the most likely winner, but I think he has more going for him than other contenders who figure to be in a similar price range on the tote board.

Win/Place: 11
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,3,5,6,7

RACE 7: FAIR LASSIE (#3)
The lightly raced Gilda Marie may go favored here, but she definitely comes with some flaws. She’s been seen just once since the summer of 2018, but at least that one appearance resulted in a victory. The word was out that day at Saratoga, as she was astoundingly bet down to 2-1 off some pretty dubious prior form. She’s clearly best on dirt, but she needed a long time to recover from that last effort and I have some concerns that she might not run back to that performance as she returns from layoff. One of her main rivals is Sweet Meadow Mist, but this deep closer’s running style tends to work against her. She’s failed to catch much pace to close into in her recent starts, and it’s unclear how much more speed she’ll get in front of her here. Finger Lakes shipper Eye’s On You comes in with the most robust résumé, having finished in the exacta in 18 of 26 career starts. That last out-out TimeformUS Speed Figure 97 makes her a player and it’s not like she was beaten by some slouch, as Victorias Fire is a 14-time winner. However, Eye’s On You’s prior efforts aren’t quite so strong and it’s often difficult for these Finger Lakes runners to transfer their form to NYRA. I’m intrigued by a bigger price. Fair Lassie has been something of a Jekyll and Hyde sort, winning one day and putting in a totally uncompetitive effort the next. She ran well enough to compete here when winning over a fast track back in June, and the filly she defeated, Mary’s Girl, has since won at this level. While Fair Lassie fell apart when meeting tougher starter allowance foes at Saratoga, she was notably hindered by racing on an extremely dead rail on July 26. It’s taken her a while to get back to the races, but at least there’s no scary drop in class.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,5,7,9
Trifecta: 3 with 2,9 with 1,2,4,5,7,9

RACE 9: PIXELATE (#10)
If this race remains on the grass, I’m not trying to beat the likely favorite Pixelate. This Godolphin homebred had shown some hints of quality in his first few starts at Arlington, but he took a massive step forward shipping to New York for his stakes debut last time. Dismissed at 35-1 odds in that Awad Stakes, he launched a furious stretch rally to pass nearly the entire field and galloped out very strongly. He’s not supposed to have any issue stretching out slightly off that and he’s gone two turns successfully. He should get some pace to close into this time with Mo Ready, Old Chestnut, and Ashraaq in this field, and a little give in the ground doesn’t figure to hinder him. Some might be reluctant to heavily endorse a horse who is going to be a fraction of the price he was last time, but he’s simply the horse to beat and is probably deserving of any support he attracts. I just trust him more than his main rival Homeland, who attempts to move up off a New York-bred maiden victory. He’s going to have to run faster in his second start, but he’s bred to be a nice runner as a $500,000 yearling who is a half-brother to Breeders’ Cup winner Bar of Gold. However, it’s worth noting that he worked out an absolutely perfect trip to break his maiden on debut and others have simply run faster at this point. If I was going to use another runner, I would throw in Mo Ready underneath, since he may just appreciate more ground than he got his in his return last time. His August maiden victory at Saratoga has looked pretty strong in retrospect and it’s possible that Pletcher was just using that last race as a prep.

Win: 10
Exacta: 10 with 1,3,6
Trifecta: 10 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,6