by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 4 - 7
Race 2: 7 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 9 - 1
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 4 - 5
Race 6: 3 - 9 - 5 - 7
Race 7: 11 - 1/1A - 9 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 7 - 4 - 2
Race 9: 7 - 2 - 8 - 3
RACE 2: NO DISTORTION (#7)
This bottom-level claiming race features a number of horses at short prices who are difficult to trust. One of those is Alright Alright, who may end up going off as the favorite based on his win at this level last month. He ran well to close down the heavy favorite Big Guy Ian, and was subsequently flattered when that runner returned to win with an improved speed figure next time out. Alright Alright, like many of his competitors, has back form that would easily beat this field, but it’s unclear what sort of performance we’ll get from him. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will have a significant advantage given the lack of speed in this race. Those dynamics could work against Saratoga Heater, who also figures to attract some support. He’s faced tougher company in all of his starts for Rudy Rodriguez, but he’s failed to win any of those races and now returns from a lengthy layoff. Over the past five years, Rudy is just 2 for 32 (6 percent, $0.57 ROI) off layoffs of 100 to 200 days in dirt sprints. The best alternative to Alright Alright is probably No Distortion, who figures to work out a good trip stalking just outside the likely pacesetter. This horse has been in some strong barns during his career, but he’s held his form well ever since the claim by new trainer Dermot Magner. He’s never loved wet tracks, so I can excuse his effort two back over a sealed surface. I thought he actually ran fairly well last time, returning on just eight days’ rest to register a distance second-place finish in a very fast race at this level. A mile is just a bit too far for him at this stage of his career, so I like this turnback to 6 furlongs.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,3,5,6
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 3,5,6
RACE 3: PRINCESS MIKAYAH (#5)
Tequila Sunday found the right field last time as she destroyed a group of maidens by nearly seven lengths as the odds-on favorite. While she didn’t earn a particularly impressive speed figure for that performance, she has plenty of prior numbers on the dirt that would make her formidable again, even as she steps up against winners. Furthermore, she broke her maiden over a wet track, which she has never cared for, so it’s conceivable that she could run faster getting back on a fast surface. I think she’s very much the horse to beat, primarily because I’m not enamored with her two main rivals. Laura’s Patriot is going to take money based on her superior turf speed figures, but she’s never run particularly well on dirt and may not possess the stamina to get a mile on this surface. I think this is a spot where we can get a bit more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Princess Mikayah. Looking purely at speed figures, this filly is every bit as fast as Tequila Sunday and she’s going to be dismissed at a significantly higher price. She’s made four starts against winners, and I think she’s run reasonably well in a couple of those races. She put forth what was arguably the best performance of her career two back on Sept. 27, when she rushed up to chase the pace while racing wide on a day when you wanted to save as much ground as possible on the main track. Then last time she actually ran much better than it seems after getting shuffled out of position heading into the turn. She appeared hopelessly beaten at the top of the stretch but stayed on well to pass half the field in the lane. The stretch-out to a mile is a question mark, but I like this rider switch to Luis Reyes, who is easily the most accomplished jockey she’s had on her back in recent months.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,4,9
RACE 4: SEPTEMBER GURL (#2)
Morning line favorite Princess Pinky is expected to scratch in favor of a maiden race on Saturday, so I’m not going to discuss her. Given that filly’s absence, Abraxan is likely to inherit the favorite’s role. I don’t have anything particularly clever to say about this filly. She’s just run well in both of her career starts, and will probably break her maiden this time unless one of her rivals steps forward significantly. She faced a solid field in her debut despite that being an off the turf event, and she had the misfortune of running into a live first time starter last time out. Many will consider Diamond Princess to be her main rival, and there are definitely some things to like about this Linda Rice trainee. Her debut on dirt was not nearly as bad as it seems. She actually flipped in the paddock prior to that race and there was some brief speculation that she might be scratched. She ended up participating, but her performance was consistent with her pre-race antics. She was unfocused throughout and never seemed to have her mind on competing. That said, she still beat half the field and only finished 5 1/4 lengths behind Abraxan. She tried turf last time, since she’s bred for that surface, but she didn’t improve much so now she’s back on the main track. I think she definitely has a right to move forward, but her price will take a significant hit now that she’s the primary alternative. It was a first time starter that defeated Abraxan last time, and I think that could happen again. September Gurl is an intriguing new face in this group as she ships up from Parx to make her debut. Trainer Juan Carlos Guerrero doesn’t bring that many horses to NYRA, but he’s had success when he’s done so. Operating primarily as a claiming trainer, Guerrero hasn’t sent out many first time starters, winning with just one at a big price over the past 5 years. Notably, this filly was entered and scratched at Aqueduct about 3 weeks ago with Irad Ortiz named to ride her. He and his brother have gone south by this point, but I’m nevertheless going to take that as a sign that she’s live. This filly showed good speed in her OBS Sales workout in June, and she’s bred to be quick. Her dam ran on turf but showed some real talent sprinting in her brief career, and that dam is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning New York-bred sprinter Fingerpainter.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4
RACE 6: FLAT CALM (#3)
Cartwheel is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot off the strength of her two most recent efforts sprinting. She destroyed an overmatched field in an off-the-turf race at Saratoga in August and then followed that with a solid runner-up performance at this level last time. On the surface, those efforts look pretty appealing, as she earned speed figures that would make her formidable against this group. However, I thought she had a very favorable trip last time, as fellow speeds conceded the lead to her through moderate fractions. This time, she’s going to have to rally from off the pace and I haven’t seen her overcome adversity in her prior starts. I’m somewhat against her this time. Of the runners exiting that Oct. 14 race at this level, I actually prefer Noble Freud. She was unwisely rated that day despite appearing to be the controlling speed. This time, she draws an advantageous outside post position, and Manny Franco should send her to the front, especially after the scratch of main pace rival Ribbonite.Linda Rice has two entrants, both of whom are somewhat appealing. Shimmering Moon figures to be a bigger price, and she’s one that I would definitely use. Her trainer has solid numbers off trainer switches in dirt sprints and this mare has run races that would make her awfully tough in this spot. However, the layoff is a concern and her form prior to the break is of some concern. I’m more interested in Flat Calm, who cuts back in distance after trying a mile last time. She actually ran very well within the context of that race, as she made the first move into an honest pace that fell apart. She also proved that she’s able to rate successfully, and she will likely have to do that again in this spot. Prior to that most recent start, she had wired a field off the layoff in September, beating the much-improved Starlite Mission, who went on to place in a stakes. I think Flat Calm is quick enough to handle six furlongs and she’s unlikely to be favored given the presence of Cartwheel.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,7,9
Trifecta: 3 with 5,9 with 2,4,5,7,9