PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 8 - 1A - 2
Race 6:   4 - 8 - 7 - 5
Race 7:   4 - 1 - 3 - 6
Race 8:   2 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 9:   3 - 8 - 4 - 2

FAIR VALUE PLAYS

(Fair Value: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. Wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)

RACE 1

There’s a case to be made for every runner in this competitive maiden field that opens the card. Both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown send out two runners each, and all appear to be contenders. Though, I do prefer the Brown duo among the logical favorites. Malarchuk (#2) is arguably the horse to beat based on his 98 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which he earned for a runner-up debut result behind Moonlight, who would go on to place in a stakes. I am a little concerned that he was entered for turf that day, but he has the kind of pedigree that could go either way with regard to surface. He finished with good interest and is bred to appreciate the distance. Brown’s other runner Reasoned Analysis (#1) should also appreciate stretching out following an educational debut. He was off slowly and lagged behind early before launching a sustained run through traffic that carried him into fourth behind a dominant winner. He then galloped out well past the wire. He’s supposed to appreciate more ground as a son of Upstart, who wins with 17% of his dirt route starters. It’s also interesting that Manny Franco lands here after riding both of these stablemates in their debuts. I’m a little less enamored with Todd Pletcher’s pair. Eliminate (#6) has taken plenty of money in both starts and figures to attract support again. I’m just not quite convinced that he really wants to go this far. Though he’s a son of Curlin, he has more of a sprint pedigree on the dam’s side, and he didn’t seem to finish off his race going this distance last time. Speed Runner (#3), on the other hand, is stretching out with some breeding to go longer. He’s a half-brother to Belmont Stakes third-place finisher Brilliant Speed. I just wish he had shown a bit more on debut in a relatively weak race for the level. That quartet figures to dominate the wagering, but I’m most interested in one of the bigger prices. Society Man (#5) is another horse stretching out in the second start of his career. He caught an extremely tough field on debut, in a loaded Saratoga maiden race won by Valentine Candy. That has been a productive affair, from which multiple horses have since won, improved their speed figures, and even placed in stakes events. Society Man was outrun early and raced greenly towards the back of the pack in a race he likely needed. Now he returns from a layoff as a new gelding for Danny Gargan, who is 13 for 47 (28%, $2.74 ROI) with maiden second time starters on dirt over 5 years, and 6 for 18 (33%, $3.70 ROI) with 2-year-olds within that sample. I love this runner’s pedigree to go longer, being sired by burgeoning stamina influence Good Magic, who gets 19% dirt route winners. The dam also won going this 9-furlong distance on dirt. He figures to be a square price, and I project improvement.

Fair Value:
#5 SOCIETY MAN, at 6-1 or greater

RACE 2

Chad Brown will only go with Union Bulldog (#2) of his uncoupled entry. The more obviously appealing of the two runners, he is now likely to be an overwhelming favorite. He ran pretty well on debut at the maiden special weight level. That race didn’t come up particularly fast, but a few horses have already returned from that event to improve their speed figures. Union Bulldog is also bred to handle added ground as a full-brother to multiple dirt route winner Mailman Money. Brown is 10 for 23 (43%, $2.59 ROI) with maiden special weight to maiden claiming dropdowns in dirt routes over 5 years. I just want to take a shot against him with a horse who also has upside and figures to offer better value. Allegrini (#5) was last across the wire while never a threat on debut in a race won by a more experienced foe in relatively fast time. Allegrini ran like a horse that would appreciate more ground, since he was off to a slow start and was running on until about mid-stretch when the rider eased up late. Vino Rosso is 5 for 31 (16%) with dirt route starters so far, and the dam has produced two route winners. Michelle Nevin has decent numbers with dropdowns, and this colt should do better with a little more ground against slightly softer company.

Fair Value:
#5 ALLEGRINI, at 3-1 or greater

RACE 5

The two horses to beat in this $14k conditioned claimer are Charger (#1A), who looks like the stronger half of the Rudy Rodriguez entry, and Big Save (#8), who finished just behind that rival when they met at this level last time. That was a pretty tough race for the condition, as winner Tommy Gun returned to win a tougher race in his next start. I thought Big Save ran the slightly better race on that occasion, considering that he had to overcome a wide post position and was hard used in the early stages to attain forward position. He showed the versatility to come from off the pace in his prior two starts, and Trevor McCarthy should try to give a more patient ride this time. Charger ran fine in that spot, and appears to have found his level after dropping out of slightly tougher races. He just hasn’t won in a very long time, and is hard to take at a short price, even for a barn that is doing well at the moment. My top pick is Mach One (#3), who returns from a layoff and drops in class. I’m not viewing the drop as a major negative, since he was claimed for just $16k by these connections and won two starts later He was always overmatched in those starter allowance races that he tried earlier this year, and he also wants no part of route distances. He’s finally getting back into a more realistic spot as he returns, and he’s reunited with Heman Harkie, who was aboard for his two best efforts last winter. He possesses the tactical speed to be forward and would benefit from an aggressive ride. Eddie Persaud isn’t a household name, but he has done well with limited opportunities in the past couple of years.

Fair Value:
#3 MACH ONE, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 9

I’m not thrilled with those who have already had chances at or around this maiden claiming level, and prefer horses dropping in class. Teresa (#8) seems like an option as she exits a decent effort against maiden special weight company. She did debut in the maiden claiming ranks, but was running on late, earning herself a shot against tougher foes. She actually improved with the rise in class, but just ran out of ground going 6 furlongs. And that’s a concern here, since she really lacks much early speed, and could be running on too late again. My top pick is Run Chata (#3), who is one of two Linda Rice trainees. It doesn’t look like she’s done much running in her 3 starts, but I think she’s a little better than it might appear. She was obviously overmatched facing much stronger company foes on debut at Fair Grounds at the start of the year. She subsequently made one start for Linda Rice this spring, where she was run off her feet by the swift Shaman Princess in a race that fell apart. She returned from another layoff last time with a performance that isn’t as bad as it looks. The rail was an advantage on Nov. 19, and she chased outside before Jose Ortiz seemed to give up on her around the turn. This is a more logical spot, and I don’t mind the switch back to Lezcano. She possesses the tactical speed to get forward, and I expect the drop to wake her up.

Fair Value:
#3 RUN CHATA, at 2-1 or greater