by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 7 - 6 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 7 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 5: 1 - 5 - 3 - 8
Race 6: 6 - 3 - 7
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 2 - 10
RACE 2: INTO A HOT SPOT (#4)
The two Brian Lynch runners figure to attract their fair share of support in this relatively weak maiden special weight event. I suppose Iona Mobe is the horse to beat after setting the pace and fading going six furlongs on Jan. 10. That effort was certainly an improvement on his December return, and he should be formidable here if he’s able to shake loose on the front end. However, I am greatly concerned about him getting the extra furlong of this race given the way he shut down at the end of his last start. I have much greater confidence in his stablemate Into a Hot Spot seeing out this seven-furlong distance. This colt seemed to lose focus on the far turn last time, as he backed up to last despite being vigorously encouraged by Mike Luzzi. He entered the stretch about eight lengths behind the leader, looking destined to finish at the back of the pack. However, whereas Ione Mobe shortened stride in the final eighth, Into a Hot Spot found a second wind, rallying strongly through the final yards to nearly pass his stablemate for third right at the wire. The horses were dealing with some very windy conditions that day, which prompted the remainder of the card to be canceled. Lynch now adds blinkers to Into a Hot Spot’s equipment, and he should be formidable if he can run a complete race this time. I prefer these experienced runners to Sam and Jax, who makes his debut nearly two years after selling for $300,000 at the 2017 OBS April sale for 2-year-olds in training. He looked fairly quick working 21 1/5 seconds back then, but it’s never a good sign when it takes horses so long to make it to the races.
Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,6,7
RACE 4: FILIBUSTIN (#5)
Hay Field is obviously the horse to beat as she returns from a brief layoff. Since getting claimed by her current connections last February, this mare has won five of her last seven starts, with her only off-the-board finish coming most recently in the Empire Distaff Handicap. She was facing a particularly tough field that day and was asked to travel a distance that is clearly farther than her best trip. This turnback to six furlongs makes plenty of sense, and she’s already won at today’s optional-claiming level. The major concern is the layoff since horses like this don’t always get back to their better races. It’s also worth pointing out that she may not receive the right setup this time. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and Hay Field is a confirmed closer. I’m very interested in Filibustin, who is predicted to lead this field through the early stages. It appears that this mare was a private purchase after her excellent fourth-place finish in last October’s Iroquois. This New York-bred has been given very few opportunities to run against statebreds since she was a 2-year-old, but she clearly responded well to the return to those ranks last time out. Horses like Highway Star and Satisfy are legitimate stakes performers, and Filibustin ran very competitively against them given the honest pace that she contested. She put away the fellow longshot whom she dueled with through the early stages and gamely battled on in the lane despite getting squeezed out at the eighth pole. A repeat of her 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure in that race would make her formidable here. I agree with the Pace Projector that she is faster than rivals Estilo Femenino and Short Kakes, and six furlongs is the perfect distance.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with 2,3,4
RACE 7: CLASSIC CZAR (#3)
Family Biz has to be considered the most likely winner of this race after picking up some black type in the Jerome last month. While he ran another strong speed figure that day, I wasn’t enamored with the optics of his performance. He got a very good trip, sitting up close in behind the speeds, and just had no serious kick in the lane. It looked like he was going to finish fifth at the eighth pole, but he was able to rally into third as others shortened stride in deep stretch. He is obviously the horse to beat, but I’m not convinced that a mile is truly his best distance. That said, I strongly prefer him to some others who are likely to attract support. Stone Breaker was visually impressive in beating maiden claiming company last time, but the TimeformUS Speed Figure suggests he’s not quite in the same class as Family Biz, and I have no confidence that he will improve with added distance. The same goes for Clench, who faded late going seven furlongs against a legitimately tough stakes field at Laurel. It’s possible that he’s improving for Jason Servis, but I get the sense that he’s really more of a sprinter. The only alternative to the favorite who I want is Classic Czar. I was intrigued by this shipper last time, when he stumbled badly at the start and dropped Jose Lezcano as the even-money favorite. One of the reasons he was so well supported that day is the strong performance by the Steve Asmussen barn at this meet, and that success has only continued since then. Distance is a question for this runner as well, but I thought he stayed on decently going a mile two back. We’ve already seen another Asmussen runner exit that race to win when shipped to New York. Classic Czar may get somewhat overlooked this time, and he still has more upside than most of his rivals.
Win: 3
Exacta Box: 3,4