PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 2 - 6 - 3
Race 2:   2 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 3:   4 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 4:   6 - 4 - 8 - 1
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 7 - 2
Race 6:   3 - 8 - 1 - 9
Race 7:   2 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 8:   7 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 9:   1 - 7 - 3 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: EASY TO BLESS (#4)

This optional claimer is a real problem for me, because it’s full of horses that I don’t want to pick or bet. Mosienko (#5) is arguably the one to beat, but it’s fair to wonder if her enchanted run of success can continue into 2023. She completely turned her form around halfway through last season, as the lone runner for Dennis Lalman’s one-horse operation. Yet she failed to show up in the Iroquois and then wasn’t quite herself when unable to reel in two foes as the odds-on favorite last December. She’s returning from a brief freshening here with some questions to answer. I also don’t want to take a short price on Piece of My Heart (#2), who finally got back to the winner’s circle two back, but is usually content to settle for minor awards in her races. Secret Love (#1) is coming off a poor effort, though I suppose the sloppy track could have been her excuse. The others are bigger prices, and I took a long look at each of them. I put Easy to Bless (#4) on top, not because she’s the most likely winner, but due to the fact that she seems most likely to be an overlay in this race. She has plenty of prior form that would make her competitive against this field, but she’s struggled to find those good races in two starts since returning from a layoff. Poor starts have hampered her each time, so she needs to break better here. Yet the public figures to abandon her this time, despite that fact that she actually made middle moves before fading in each of those last two starts. I’m going to keep the faith one more time given the lack of appealing options among the shorter prices.

WIN: #4 Easy to Bless, at 8-1 or greater

RACE 5: MOVIE MOXY (#4)

My interest in this race wanes a bit after the scratch of Melting Snow, who I was against. Favoritism now figures to go to either Mia Bea Star (#3) or My Sweet Wife (#7). The former doesn’t win very often, but she typically shows up with a good effort and has been in solid form for Randi Persaud. My Sweet Wife hasn’t run as fast as those two, but she had been in solid form for Michelle Nevin. Yet, like the favorite, I thought she took advantage of some vulnerable fields and it’s not a guarantee that she’ll be as effective for a new barn. My top pick is Movie Moxy (#4). Her recent speed figures aren’t on par with the favorites, but there are reasons to suggest that she’s capable of turning things around here. Her last effort isn’t nearly as bad as it seems, since she threw her head at the start and left the gate lengths behind the field. She actually ran on pretty well for second considering that poor beginning, and almost surely would have won with a clean break. She was competing against weaker that day, but she’s now been claimed by Linda Rice, who confidently moves her up in class. Rice is 15 for 35 (43%, $2.49 ROI) first off the claim with horses going from sprints to routes on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years. The barn has also been sending out nothing but live runners lately, and the price figures to be fair.

WIN: #4 Movie Moxy, at 2-1 or greater

RACE 6: BIG ENGINE (#3)

The scratch of morning line favorite Sheriff Bianco (#4) is not a big surprise, as he would have been wheeling back in just 5 days. His main rival, and now the likely favorite, appears to be Nova Rags (#8), who make his fifth attempt to break through this level. Recently he's settled for second in similar spots, but he’s been beaten by good horses in each of those last two starts. He will also benefit from any pace that develops up front, and it seems likely the early tempo will be fast if the race holds together. A quick pace would also benefit Linda Rice’s remaining entrant Big Engine (#3). He finished 6 lengths behind Nova Rags when they met here in December, but he just got too far back in the early stages. He was also trained by Rudy Rodriguez then during a time when the barn was in a slump. Now he’s been claimed by Linda Rice, who is 19 for 47 (40%, $2.81 ROI) first off the claim at Aqueduct over the past 5 months. She has had success with this horse before, and he’s run speed figures in the past for Rice that would make him very competitive against this field. As long as the race isn’t torn apart by scratches, he’s supposed to get the right setup and should be a square price. The other horse that I want to use is Gagetown (#1), part of the Lynn Cash entry. He's a nice complement to his speedier stablemate, and he ran pretty well here two back when making an early move into a quick pace. He's comfortable rallying from further back in the pack, so he figures to sit the right trip.

WIN: #3 Big Engine, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 1,8

RACE 7: ALARM CLOCK (#2)

I suppose Hydra (#3) and Customerexperience (#7) could vie for favoritism in this $40k claiming event after they finished first and second, respectively, in a similar race back on Jan. 8. Hydra was a mildly surprising winner that day, getting back to her best form in her 7-year-old debut. She regressed a bit last time, but she was also overmatched against optional claiming foes. She’s back in the right kind of spot and makes sense. Customerexperience makes her first start off the claim for Jamie Begg and should be a major factor if she’s able to hold her form. She finished up strongly to get the job done two back over next-out winner Honey Money and just ran out of real estate last time. Yet her closing style does typically put her at the mercy of pace. I prefer a couple of alternatives. I think we could see a better effort for Sister Annie (#6) second off the Mertkan Kantarmaci claim. She was ambitiously placed last time and lost all chance at the start when she was badly sawed off between rivals, pushed back to last. She typically does her best running from the front end, so that kind of trip was never going to work out. Now she drops down to a more appropriate level and her speed should play well here. My top pick is Alarm Clock (#2). This filly has been an overachiever for low-profile connections ever since coming to this circuit late last year. She showed surprising improvement off the claim for Norman Follett in that 45-1 upset on November 17, but she’s held her form ever since then. She was hardly disgraced two back behind Customerexperience going a distance that may be too far for her. And last time she put in a game effort to finish third against males behind next-out winner O’Trouble. She’s drawn well inside and appears to fit at this class level.

WIN: #2 Alarm Clock, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 6

RACE 8: BOLD JOURNEY (#7)

You have to admire a horse like Warriors Revenge (#4), who has won 8 of his last 9 starts. He proved that he’s no Finger Lakes wonder when transferring that form to Aqueduct last time. Perhaps he didn’t care for the sealed track when he initially came to this circuit two back, but he looked like a different horse last time, finishing powerfully after stalking the pace. He was flattered when runner-up Writer's Regret came back to win last weekend with an 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He now moves up in class, but he fits well on speed figures and has the versatility to sit off the early leaders. Furthermore, Mark Hennig is 15 for 62 (24%, $3.00 ROI) with Windylea Farm horses at Aqueduct over 5 years. The one concern for him is that there is plenty of speed signed. Among the other pace players, More Graytful (#3) seems most intriguing. He would be tough for this field to handle if able to run back to the 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned at this level over a year ago on New Year's Day 2022. He was in great form for the Rob Atras barn back then, and he’s since gone the wrong way after a couple of claims. Yet it’s fair to say that he was overmatched at the open N2X level when he tried it twice for Michelle Giangiulio last year. He’s obviously had some issues, but is dropping to a realistic level and figures to be a fair price. My top pick is Bold Journey (#7). Some could argue that he’s been a bit of a disappointment overall, given the way he started his career last winter. However, it does feel like he’s starting to turn things around lately. He beat a weak field when he broke through the N1X condition back in November. Yet he was a commanding winner that day, and he’s actually stepped up his game since moving to this tougher level. He was simply beaten by some tough rivals in those last two starts, but did run on well after a poor start last time. He probably isn’t meeting as tough a field here, and it appears that Eric Cancel is a good fit for him with so much pace signed on.

WIN: #7 Bold Journey, at 3-1 or greater
USE: 3,4