by David Aragona
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Race 1: 4 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 1 - 7 - 3
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 3 - 7 - 4 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 6 - 7 - 9 - 1
RACE 1: RUCKSACK (#4)
If all the entrants in this maiden race replicate their recent form, Zealous is going to win by a wide margin. Not only has he run significantly faster speed figures than his competitors, he has done so while chasing home some fairly talented runners. Business Cycle, Yamano Maker, and Hero’s Welcome are all better than your average maiden special weight winners and would be odds-on to defeat this below-par field. So, is it just that easy? Perhaps it is, but I’m not inclined to swallow a very short price – perhaps even-money or lower – on a horse who has finished second in four consecutive starts. Horses like Zealous are not the kinds of heavy favorite on which savvy horseplayers should rely. So, who are the alternatives? Mutaraabit is an obvious contender off his Mid-Atlantic form, but there are some things I don’t like. He may have needed his return effort on Dec. 18, but he still underperformed against a field that was unquestionably weaker than this one. Since then, he’s been a vet scratch on Jan. 29. Furthermore, trainer Michael Pino has not won a race on the NYRA circuit since July 2016. I would instead give a second look to a couple of horses who finished behind Zealous on Dec. 28. While it’s unclear if the rail was actually dead that day, most riders did avoid racing inside over that sloppy surface. The two horses who spent the most time close to the rail in that race were Rucksack and Replicator, who both came up empty in the lane. Replicator will get bet merely due to his connections, but Rucksack may fall through the cracks off his dismal recent effort. Before that debacle, this horse had earned the second-fastest set of speed figures of any runner in this race. I think it’s a good sign that Ray Handal is keeping him at the special weight level rather than dropping back down to maiden-claiming company. If the main track is again tilted toward inside runners, as it has been for the past week, Rucksack may fall into the perfect trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6
RACE 3: DIRTY BIRD (#1)
Despite attracting just five participants, this race is a pretty difficult handicapping puzzle. While all of the runners merit consideration, I’m somewhat skeptical of the likely favorite, Ma Meatloaf. She is the most experienced entrant, has kept the strongest company, and has run the fastest speed figures. However, the stretch-out to a mile is of great concern. She’s done her best work at shorter distances, and her lone attempt at seven furlongs – albeit against stakes company – did not help to allay my concerns. You have to use her defensively, but I’m somewhat against her at a short price. I actually prefer Jeremiah Englehart’s other entrant, Dirty Bird. This filly’s first couple of starts at six furlongs came up very slow on the speed-figure scale, but I think she had some excuses. She was facing a stakes-quality runner when she debuted behind Forgotten Hero in early November, and then she had a rough trip when first dropped in for a tag later that month. Some may write off her easy maiden win as a product of the sloppy track, but I thought she ran legitimately well that day, making an early move to the lead and winning with authority over a large field. She finished last against optional-claiming company in her next start, but that effort actually served to validate her maiden win since she was able to keep in touch with classier fillies and earned the best speed figure of her career. I’m not all that concerned about the distance for her, which is more than I can say about the other runners in this race. I also think it’s important to note that Jeremiah Englehart has outstanding numbers in this situation. Over the past 5 years, he is 32 for 57 (56 percent, $2.96 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more and running back in less than 30 days on the dirt. Dirty Bird is my selection, but I could also include fillies like Saratoga Style, who was against the rail bias last time, and Bee’snbee’s, who may be improving at the right time.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 4: BIZNESS BEAUTY (#3)
This race is fairly light on form, so the Danny Gargan-trained entry of Phil’s Babe and Avalina may end up going off as the favored entity. Avalina seems like the one that is well-meant, since leading rider Manny Franco is named to ride. While there’s no significant class in the most recent generation of her female family, her dam traces back to some strong bloodlines. Her third dam No Class – pun not intended – is the direct ancestress of champions Dance Smartly, Sky Classic, Regal Classic, and Smart Strike. Therefore, it’s probably not a good sign that she sold for just $15,000 as a yearling and is debuting for a $30,000 tag. Rather than settling on the entry, I’d prefer to search for some hidden clues among those with experience. Big Brown Cat figures to be dangerous due to her speed going this distance. However, she’s failed to hang on two straight starts a this level, fading in the last furlong each time. It’s not as if she can be expected to shake lookse up from this time given the presence of It’s a Shaw Thing and Controllingthegold, who both have flashed high speed in the first quarters of their races. While it can be dangerous to accept closers in races at this abbreviated distance, I’m hoping there’s enough pace to set up the late run of Bizness Beauty. In my estimation, she’s just the classiest member of this field, having put forth respectable efforts against tougher $50,000 open maiden claimers. I thought she put forth a strong late rally prior to the layoff on Sep. 20, and her return on Feb. 9 was not quite as bad as it seems. She was last of four, but she was also racing wide over a rail-biased track in a maiden special weight. Contessa was probably using that race as a tightener, and now she returns a mere 6 days later at the appropriate class level. If she takes any kind of step forward in her second start off the layoff, I think she’ll be difficult to hold off late.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 7: CRIMSON FROST (#5)
While it’s not really my style to recommend likely favorites, I just feel that Crimson Frost has found the right spot and is a very likely winner. She’s coming off a couple of disappointing third-place finishes, but I believe she had legitimate excuses in both of those performances. She’s just not a sprinter, so I can forgive her for failing to get involved going 6 1/2 furlongs two back. Then last time, she was at the opposite end of the spectrum, as 1 1/8 miles is a bit beyond her range of ideal distances. Furthermore, she seems to give the best response when she closes outside in the stretch, and Junior Alvarado got her stuck inside behind tiring rivals from the three-eighths pole until deep stretch. This time, she’s back at her best distance, and she figures to work out a perfect trip, sitting a few lengths off a number of speedier rivals. Some may consider Jump Ruler, who is probably the biggest threat to the favorite. However, Crimson Frost easily defeated Jump Ruler when they last met going this distance on Dec. 7. Jump Ruler earned a formidable speed figure in her following start, but she was aided by a favorable pace scenario. I’m totally against the other horse who is likely to attract support, Face It. In my opinion, she was exposed last time out at Laurel when she actually faced horses of quality. While she earned respectable speed figures in her wins at Aqueduct, those victories came over vastly inferior foes. I think she’ll have a tough time putting away the other speeds in this spot, which should help set things up for Crimson Frost’s late run.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,6