by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 3 - 5
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 3
Race 3:   6 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 4 - 1 - 5
Race 5:   3 - 5 - 2 - 7
Race 6:   6 - 3 - 2 - 1A
Race 7:   2 - 1 - 3 - 8
Race 8:   9 - 1 - 5 - 3

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: SUNSHINE GAL (#6)
Lady Moyne is clearly the horse to beat based on her effort just 13 days ago, when she was a late-running second at this level. Racing with Lasix for the first time, she improved significantly on her debut, where she raced wide against a rail bias. She has a right to win this race, but she’s going to be a very short price off that performance, and I think others have more room for improvement. I’m especially interested in the pair coming out of the Jan. 19 maiden race won by Puffery. Scorpion Bowl finished ahead of Sunshine Gal that day, but it’s the Charlton Baker second-time starter who interests me most. Sunshine Gal ran like a horse who needed her debut. She was off a step slowly, and Kendrick Carmouche just never could seem to get her into position thereafter. He tried to get her to advance between horses leaving the backstretch but was forced to tap on the brakes as that hole closed up. From there, he had to wait until the stretch to make his move, and this filly responded willingly once steered into the clear. She’s bred to be a decent horse, and I think we’ll see a more professional performance in her second start.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,3,4

 

RACE 4: PUFFERY (#2)
The two fillies coming off dominant maiden victories figure to vie for favoritism. Split Time easily defeated an overmatched group in her second start, and did so at today’s one-mile distance. That experience gives her an advantage, but she still will have to overcome some gate issues to be successful here. While it’s not noted in her running lines, she actually broke one to two lengths slowly in each of her two starts. If she makes that same error while breaking from the rail, she may give away valuable early position to her two key rivals. I prefer Puffery, who stretches out in distance. I loved the way this filly won her maiden last time, powering away from the field in the final furlong while earning a field-best 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She gives the impression that she should have no trouble stretching out in distance, and she certainly is bred to do so as a daughter of Flatter. Today, she should work out a good stalking trip sitting just off Cryinthemoonlight, who drops out of stakes company. While Split Time and Puffery should generate more play, I would not discount this daughter of Street Cry. She beat Split Time in her maiden win two back and may be able to control the pace on the front end.

Win: 2
Trifecta: 2 with 1,4 with 1,4,5

 

RACE 7: ANDESINE (#2)
Palladian Bridge seems like a deserving favorite here. She defeated a couple of today’s rivals two back and then ran a strong second behind the accomplished filly Quezon when stepped up to stakes company. A repeat of either of those performances makes her a likely winner of this race. However, she is facing some worthy rivals. Silly Sister should attract some support as she returns from a lengthy layoff for Linda Rice. Sandy Belle has been in fantastic form for Rich Schosberg but must step up in class to face the toughest field of her life. I’ll use them defensively, but I’m more interested in horses coming out of the eighth race on Jan. 25. That event was won by Startwithsilver, who ran down the entire field with a fantastic finish. She was able to make such an effective late move because the early pace was relatively fast. The horse setting those early fractions was Zealous Scholar. I think she’s dangerous once again since she’s faster than pace rival Sandy Belle. However, she usually comes to a stop at the end of her races and may not be able to hang on. The horse I want to bet out of that race is Andesine. This mare has improved significantly in recent starts. She indicated that she had turned a corner with an impressive claiming win two back, and her last effort was just as good. Considering that she’s typically a closer, she was actually very close to that quick early pace set by Zealous Scholar. She had to briefly wait for room coming around the far turn and kicked strongly once clear in the stretch. If she shows that same tactical speed again here, she should sit a perfect trip.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,8
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3,8 with 1,3,7,8