by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   1 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 2:   5 - 2 - 3 - 7
Race 3:   1 - 7 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   1 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 4 - 8 - 6
Race 6:   8 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 7:   5 - 9 - 7 - 4
Race 8:   8 - 11 - 12 - 1

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

 
RACE 1: DISTURBED (#1)

Likely favorite Sounds Spooky (#2), the lone New York-bred in this open company field, has been steadily dropping down the class ladder. He showed some mild improvement when he first dropped in for a tag two back. He then wasn’t quite as effective last time when just one-paced through the late stages, but nevertheless earned a competitive 74 TimeformUS Speed Figure. That form was flattered when the second, third, and fourth finishers from that race returned to finish third, second, and first, respectively, in another $40k maiden claimer here last week. That form suggests he should be pretty tough on this field as he drops down in class. His main rivals appear to be Stormandy (#3) and Steady Progress (#6), but both have to show more to compete with the favorite, and it’s not as if either one figure to be much of a price. I’d rather go for a runner who I think will offer better value. Disturbed (#1) has been outrun from the outset in each start so far, and has been unable to make an impact thereafter. Yet he did pass some tired rivals in the late stages last time, only finishing a length behind the aforementioned Steady Progress. He’s taking the biggest drop of anyone in this field, as James Ryerson lowers the class level and adds blinkers. This gelding does stay on at the end of his races, so the mile suits him. He also picks up Dylan Davis and appears to have finally landed in a spot where he might be able to get involved at a decent price.

WIN: #1 Disturbed, at 4-1 or greater
 

RACE 2: MARIAH’S FORTUNE (#5)

This $20k claimer looks fairly wide open, as none of the short prices stands on solid ground. Blue Paynt (#3) may be the default public choice as she drops down in class out of a series of tougher races. She ran well in her first couple of starts on this circuit late last year for Mertkan Kantarmaci, but she’s since gone the wrong way. I generally want to be skeptical of horses like this, who seem to be dropping out of necessity rather than intention to win. The good news is that she is getting the chance to stretch back out in distance, as she seems more comfortable at this one-mile trip. There are other class droppers to consider, but most of them aren’t in great form. Vallarand (#2) at least seems like she belongs at this level after winning a $25k conditioned claimer two starts ago. They got a little too ambitious off the claim with her last time, as she wasn’t competitive with a tougher starter allowance field. She’s running back on short rest, but is now in a more realistic spot. My top pick is Mariah’s Fortune (#5). She’s another who has competed cheaply before and may have just been placed over head in some recent starts. She had little chance in an open N1X race when last seen on this circuit in October. Since then she’s competed twice at Parx, where Rudy Rodriguez doesn’t have much success. She ran fine two back but then was never involved last time while riding the rail on a day when that might not have been the best place to be. She’s now placed at an appropriate level, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that she’s quick enough to make the early lead. Rudy Rodriguez is 13 for 52 (25%, $2.46 ROI) with horses going from allowance to claiming races on dirt at Aqueduct over 5 years.

WIN: #5 Mariah's Fortune, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2
 

RACE 3: OLYMPIC DREAMS (#1)

Among those with experience, Refuah (#7) is clearly the one to beat. However, this 10-start maiden is a little tough to trust after having settled for minor awards in all of his recent starts. He’s finished second or third in his last 7 races. Last time he actually went favored and was in position to win at the quarter pole before deferring to the eventual winner. He’s the one to beat, but he’s hard to take on top. Among his main rivals are a pair of first time starters. The one that figures to take money is Spirit of St Louis (#3), a 4-year-old gelding going out for Chad Brown. He’s very well-bred, being a full-brother to G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint winner Bar of Gold. It’s clearly taken him a while to get to the races, and Chad Brown is 4 for 12 (33%, $1.10 ROI) with 4-year-old and older first time starters on dirt over 5 years, with all of the winners being odds-on favorites. He makes sense, but I didn’t want to take a short price on him either. Squid Gamer (#6), the other first time starter, is a little interesting. He sports some decent workouts and is bred to go this far, being a half-brother to allowance types Klickitat and Evaluator. Yet I preferred some experienced rivals with upside. I considered Tie Breaker (#5), who switches into the capable barn of David Duggan for the first time. I wish he had done some more running in his prior starts, but he is bred to stretch out. My top pick is Olympic Dreams (#1). This horse barely lifted on a hoof in his turf debut last year, but he’s not even bred for that surface. He seems like one that’s taken a while to mature, but he did show some signs of life off the layoff switching to dirt last time for Pat Quick. Though he finished behind a few rivals he meets again here, he got a very wide trip and traveled well into the race before tiring late. He didn’t look totally fit for that return and may have more to offer here with a start under his belt. It’s also a good sign that Dylan Davis keeps the mount for a barn that doesn’t always use high profile riders.

WIN: #1 Olympic Dreams, at 9-2 or greater
 

RACE 4: COMPLETE AGENDA (#1)

I’m not trying to beat Complete Agenda (#1), who just appears to have found the right field as he drops back down in class. I won’t fault him for losing to Curbstone the last time he was in for a tag back in December, as that rival returned to win again with a 113 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Complete Agenda subsequently beat a better field of starter allowance foes going this distance, making a sustained run from far back. Linda Rice then attempted to wheel him back in 7 days against a tougher field of open N1X rivals. The pace didn’t work out as well, as the race was dominated on the front end. Furthermore, he didn’t get a particularly savvy ride from apprentice Maddy Olver, as he got steadied leaving the backstretch when attempting to launch a rally before going wide on the turn. He’s better than that, and is now dropping down into a realistic spot. There isn’t a ton of pace signed on here, but horses like Irish Exit and Fromanothamutha figure to show some initiative early. The likely favorite’s main rival appears to be Doctor Love (#2). He was beaten by Complete Agenda in that Jan. 7 race, but ran nearly as well in defeat after contesting an honest pace. That was a pretty game effort, but I didn’t think he ran as well in his next start. He got a favorable pace setup in that Jan. 20 race but failed to capitalize, unable to sustain a rally in the late stages. He was perhaps negatively affected by staying inside in a race that featured an outside flow. He does get a rider upgrade to Manny Franco, and feels like the horse with the best chance of causing a minor upset.

WIN: #1 Complete Agenda, at 1-1 or greater
 

RACE 7: SECURITY CODE (#5)

Downtown Mischief (#9) will be difficult to beat if she runs as well as she did on debut last month. She broke alertly and attained good position stalking the pace before taking over when asked in upper stretch. She pulled away to a convincing victory, leaving significant gaps between the runners behind her. Her 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the best number in this field. However, she achieved that with the benefit of a slow pace, as the pace figures for her last race are color-coded blue in TimeformUS. This time she may have to adapt to a quicker early tempo with speeds like Lockbox, Pretty Miss Keens, and Vax drawn to her inside. Furthermore, Linda Rice is just 3 for 17 (18%, $0.78 ROI) with last-out debut winners making their second starts on dirt over the past 5 years. Her most accomplished rival is Midtown Lights (#7), who exits a lucrative runner-up finish in a $500k New York Stallion Series stakes last time. She actually ran pretty well that day, considering that she got shuffled out of position on the backstretch before launching a wide rally on the far turn. She couldn’t get to the winner Le Bons Temps, but that runner possesses some quality. She has the right running style for this race and looks like a legitimate threat. My top pick is another late runner, Security Code (#5), who figures to go off at a bigger price. Some may view her as a disappointment, as she hasn’t really delivered on the promise she showed in her first couple of starts at Saratoga last summer. However, she hasn’t had ideal trips in her last two races. She was making a good late rally two back at this level, but got ridden directly into traffic in upper stretch, which cost her place honors. Then last time she broke decently but lost position on the turn while racing off the inside against a strong rail bias. She actually finished up with some decent interesting to get up for third. She will appreciate any pace that develops up front and is better than her recent form indicates.

WIN: #5 Security Code, at 4-1 or greater