by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 6 - 1A - 3
Race 2: 8 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 3: 1 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 4: 5 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 5: 1 - 2 - 5 - 3
Race 6: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 7: 1 - 2 - 5 - 6
Race 8: 4 - 7 - 8 - 3
RACE 2: TIFFANY’S VISION (#8)
There really is not much separation between the top contenders and the fringe players in this race. Horses such as Gypso Jo and Burkey’s Babe are probably going to get sent off at short prices here, but it’s not as if they’ve done that much to justify such support. Gypso Jo was inexplicably bet down to favoritism last time and did little running, while Burkey’s Babe is coming off an awful performance at a short price. I think this is the kind of race where it’s wise to get a little more creative, so I’m taking a shot with Tiffany’s Vision. I’ll be the first to admit that Tiffany’s Vision is not much of a runner, but her most recent effort suggests that she just might be good enough to beat this field. In that Jan. 19 race, Tiffany’s Vision was squeezed back right after the start and Kendrick Carmouche guided her to the rail to make up some ground. Coming to the top of the stretch, I thought that Carmouche got a little unlucky. He was clearly trying to steer her off the inside with a left-handed whip, but the runner outside of her kept her in, causing Tiffany’s Vision to steady behind a tiring runner. From there, she had to angle out to the center of the track, and she finished up decently under mild urging late. I know that was not the toughest field, but she’s almost certainly facing an even softer group today.
Win/Place: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,4,5,6
RACE 5: NOMINAL DOLLARS (#1)
If Iron Power runs back to his prior form, he’s almost certainly going to win this race. Obviously, he’s been campaigned primarily on the turf in recent starts, but his dirt form is solid enough. Furthermore, he faced much tougher fields in those dirt efforts and this is the first time that he’s dropping down into a claiming race on the main track. Yet that’s the major negative. This is quite the class drop down to $10,000 for a horse that was claimed for $25,000 two months ago. Antonio Arriaga has had some success at this meet, but he’s done well moving horses up in class. I think this drop is a very negative sign, and I’m trying to beat him. The obvious alternative is Nominal Dollars, and I view him as a very likely winner of this race. I know that he disappointed as the favorite last time, but that was a tougher spot and he was completely against the profile of the track that day. The surface on Jan. 26 was favoring runners that ran on the rail, and Nominal Dollars was three-wide throughout. Furthermore, I’m not sure that 10 furlongs is really within his wheelhouse, and this turnback to a mile should suit him. The one concern is his lack of early speed, so Dylan Davis will have to try to keep him a bit closer to the pace.
Win: 1
Exacta: 1 with 2,3,5
RACE 6: SHADOW RIDER (#2)
I suppose Borsa Vento will go favored here off his blowout win against weaker company last time. However, that was his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez, who has done sensational work with that move at this meet. Now he transitions to another top barn with Linda Rice, but he’s moving up in class significantly and I don’t fully trust him to run back to that prior effort. You could say similar things about California Swing, who also ran a career-best race against cheaper last time. Yet at least he’s making what appears to be a positive trainer switch to Mike Maker, and he actually ran a bit better than it appears in his two starts prior to that win. I think he’s dangerous, but my top pick is Shadow Rider. If this horse runs back to any of his efforts during October and November, he’s going to be a major factor in this race. So what happened last time? The main track on Dec. 16 was favoring runners that saved ground, which helped rail-skimming Alaapatique finish second that day. Shadow Rider was hung out extremely wide for the entire trip, racing 4 to 5 paths off the rail all the way around the far turn and into the lane. Furthermore, it’s possible that he was just a little burned out after racing 5 times in just a 73-day span. Now he returns off a minor break, and he’s run well off similar freshenings in the past. I think we’re going to see him return to form here, and the price should be fair.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,6,7
RACE 7: HARLAN PUNCH (#1)
If Pioneer Spirit repeats his muddy track win of Jan. 13, he is going to be awfully tough for this field to handle. He’s steadily been improving ever since he was claimed by Brad Cox back in October, and that most recent run was his best effort yet. That said, he was able to set a very slow pace last time (indicated by blue color-coding in TimeformUS PPs) in a race where there was just no other speed signed on. This time, he figures to face some early pressure from Fox Rules, and potentially even Classy Class. I think he’s dangerous, but there are other runners with talent in this spot. My top pick is Harlan Punch. This gelding has been in fantastic form for David Jacobson recently, and his performance in the Jazil last time out was not quite as bad as it seems. He finished last of four that day, but he broke slowly and was racing 2 to 3 wide thereafter on a day when you wanted to be on the rail. A one-turn mile is clearly a much better distance for him and he figures to work out a great stalking trip.
Win: 1
Trifecta: 1 with 2,5 with ALL