by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 1 - 4
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 3 - 1/1A
Race 4: 8 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 5: 4 - 6 - 2 - 7
Race 6: 4 - 2 - 6 - 7
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 8: 2 - 5 - 6 - 8
RACE 2: RIBBONITE (#3)
Some might be tempted to take a stand against Ribbonite as she drops to the lowest level of her career following a poor effort. However, she had a valid excuse last time. While it’s not noted in the chart comments, Reylu Gutierrez actually lost his irons on Ribbonite coming out of the gate and didn’t get back in the stirrups until the field had traveled nearly a quarter-mile. That early trouble obviously cost her any chance of getting to the front, which is where she needs to be to have her best chance. This time, she figures to show her customary early speed, and I believe she’s quick enough to hold her position inside of pace rival Elizabeth Nicole. There are still some reasons to be wary of Ribbonite since she’s been dealing with a series of layoffs, but assuming she gets the right trip, she’s supposed to prove faster than these rivals. Her two main rivals Not About the Nail and Arewehavingfunyet have scratched.
Win: 3
Exacta: 3 with 1
RACE 6: RO BEAR (#4)
H Man has to be considered the horse to beat as he makes his first start off the claim for Jason Servis. He is especially dangerous in these situations, and it’s probably a good sign that he’s moving this runner up in class in his first start for the new barn. H Man would not have to improve much, if at all, on his runner-up finish behind the Servis-trained Planet Trailblazer last time. He carved out legitimate early fractions that day and just succumbed to the winner while well clear of the rest of the field. I’m hardly against him, but these low-level claimers are not that reliable, and I don’t want to accept a very short price on anyone. Some may consider Sparty Boy as an alternative, but I find him difficult to recommend off his recent form. This horse exploded with an 11-length triumph in very fast time in his first start for the Rudy Rodriguez barn, but it’s been downhill since then. He showed some signs of life when back on a wet track at Parx two back, but his most recent performance at Aqueduct was quite dull. Instead, I want to take a shot with Ro Bear. These low-profile connections rarely take a ton of money, but this horse should probably be among the favorites based solely on his recent efforts. He easily won while defeating today’s rival Halloween Harrow the last time that he raced in a straight claiming event. Since then, he’s faced tougher optional-claiming and allowance foes, yet he has not disgraced himself in any of those performances. He had little chance chasing the very fast Charlie McCoy two back, but he nevertheless stayed on well to finish just a length behind the runner-up. And then last time, he took advantage of a good trip while finishing just behind Papa Shot and Horoscope, both of whom would be heavy favorites in a race like this. A one-turn mile is his best distance, and Harry Hernandez seems to ride him well.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,5,6,7
RACE 7: MILLS (#6)
With the scratch of Ironclad, Langdarma will fly the flag for the Mertkan Kantarmaci barn. This trainer has had success with a small group of family-owned runners at this meet, and now he’s branching out to train for capable claiming owner Robert Amendola. Langdarma is making his first start off the claim for new barn and would likely win this race if he were merely to repeat his most recent effort. However, I have some reservations. Yet he just does not appear to be a winning type, having blown clear leads in the stretch of his last three starts. I'm also somewhat concerned about him stretching back ou to 1 1/8 miles after he readily surrendered with no apparent excuse two back. I want to take a shot against him and there are a number of viable alternatives. I would have strongly considered Uncle Sigh, but he seems more likely to show up in a race on Saturday. Roaming Union makes some sense as he drops in for a tag for the first time. Kelly Breen is just running this 4-year-old where he belongs after he’s failed in a series of tougher spots. His speed figures suggest that he may be a cut below the two favorites, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him jump up with a faster effort if he is able to secure an easy lead. My top pick is Mills. Like Langdarma, this horse is not exactly a winning type. However, Mills has been in reasonably strong form for Dave Canizzo, and I like the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles for him. He’s always been quite versatile, but longer distances typically play to his strengths. If the aforementioned runners hook up at all on the front end, he will be closing late, and I believe he can use his stamina to outstay them.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with 1,5,7,8
RACE 8: BUSS THE BELL (#2)
There’s no clear favorite in this wide-open finale. I made La Maquina Gris the slight choice on the morning line with very little confidence. He’s taking a significant drop in class after getting his head handed to him in two straight starts for Gary Contessa. Those taking an optimistic view of him might point out that he’s had to contend with muddy and sloppy tracks in his last two starts, and he is likely to encounter fast going on Friday. However, he needs to completely turn around his form. Infield Is In is not exactly a winning type, but he might be the most reliable alternative. He’s steadily been improving in recent starts and he certainly fits at this level. I won’t hold his fifth place finish on Jan. 13 against him, since that was a much tougher field than the one he meets today. I want to look outside of the box in this race, so I’m taking a shot with longshot Buss the Bell. Despite the fact that he goes out for the Randi Persaud barn and is ridden by low-percentage Dalton Brown, this gelding arguably ran the best last race of any horse in this field. His recent speed figures stack up very well with the aforementioned runners, and his last effort on Feb. 2 may actually be better than it appears. I thought the main track at Aqueduct was starting to tilt towards the rail late in the day on that card, as most of the horses that did well in that 10th race spent a significant amount of time inside. Buss the Bell was the only horse to mount a serious challenge while racing wide, and he actually held on quite well to be third considering that taxing trip. If he runs as well this time, I think he’s got a real shot to win this at a square price.
Win/Place: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,6,7,8