by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 2:   4 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 3 - 5 - 4
Race 4:   6 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 5:   7 - 6 - 8 - 4
Race 6:   2 - 4 - 5 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 6 - 1
Race 8:   4 - 6 - 1 - 8

TOP PLAYS

RACE 2: SUMMER READING (#4)
Summer Reading figures to go off as a slight favorite and certainly seems like the most likely winner. There is not much early speed signed on, and she is clearly fast enough to contest the early pace along with Anydayismyday. Indeed, the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that favors runners on or near the lead. Among those with recent dirt form, her chief rival is Friend of Liberty, but I’m concerned that she’s just not quite as talented as Summer Reading. Friend of Liberty earned a career-best speed figure in the slop three back, but horses have not exactly come back out of that race to validate the high number. Over another wet track at Laurel last time, she couldn’t get the job done as the 6-5 favorite. The other runner likely to attract support is more of a wild card. Not Taken has not started on dirt since early 2017, and she has never run fast enough to compete with Summer Reading on this surface. However, she has improved significantly in her recent turf races, which suggests that it’s possible she may just be a more talented horse overall now. I find it interesting that John Terranova kept her training through the winter, and she has logged some quick workouts for this comeback. For what it’s worth, her pedigree indicates that she’s always been cut out to handle dirt since she’s a half-sister to dirt stakes winner Spelling Again and local dirt winner Flash Trading.

Win: 4
Trifecta: 4 with 3,5 with 1,2,3,5

 

RACE 3: HARKNESS (#1)
This race centers around Reckless Humor, who attempts to win her fourth race in a row for Rudy Rodriguez while stepping up to face one of the toughest fields she’s ever met. Her recent win over this track was visually impressive, but she was aided by spending the majority of that race on a strong rail. Nevertheless, today’s rival Christmas Sky also was aided by the rail in that race, and Reckless Humor still defeated her by more than four lengths. Make no mistake that this Rodriguez trainee is the horse to beat, but she could be an underlay. Generally, I’m not inclined to pick horses like Harkness. Based on her lifetime record, she doesn’t have much will to win races, having tallied six second-place finishes in 13 starts. On the other hand, in a race where so many rivals are moving up in class, she has arguably been keeping the best company. She disappointed as one of the choices in the wagering last time, but I thought she had some subtle difficulties that day. She was shuffled back at the start and forced to make an early move into contention in the first quarter-mile. From there, she chased wide on the turn and had a right to flatten out late. The one-mile distance is a bit of a question for her, but she did handle route distances earlier in her career. In a race with limited options, she’s one whom I can allow myself to endorse.

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5

 

RACE 6: SAND CITY (#2)
I suppose Angel Food will go off as the slight favorite here as she drops in for a tag for the first time. She ran a competitive speed figure in her debut, but she was chasing a relatively moderate pace that day. Since then, she hasn’t been able to deal with the tougher competition at the N1X allowance level. This drop in class will help her, but there is real speed for her to deal with in this race, so she may have to stalk in the early stages. I prefer one of her pace rivals. Sand City ran very well in her first start off the claim for Antonio Arriaga, but her last start is puzzling. Jan. 26 was a day that favored horses on the rail, and Sandy City was three wide throughout. However, she never appeared to get involved in the pace, as she usually does, and her rider made almost no effort to motivate her at any point. Given that non-effort, I suppose it’s a good sign that she’s running back without any layoff. This drop in class is significant, but they’re just bringing her back to the level at which they claimed her three back. I like the rider switch to Manny Franco, and she’s clearly talented enough to win this.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5

 

RACE 7: CLUTCH CARGO (#2)
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, which will not help morning-line favorite Becker’s Galaxy. This horse registered a blowout victory for Rudy Rodriguez last time going nine furlongs, but he faces a different set of circumstances here. Last time, he was allowed to control the pace as the lone speed, and now he has to tangle with stretching-out sprinters Global Positioning and Mighty Zealous. I prefer the closers in this spot, and the one I want to bet is Clutch Cargo. He’s running back on just six days’ rest after failing to make an impact in the Haynesfield Stakes last Saturday. While he did not run particularly well in that race, it did seem like horses were having trouble closing all day, and the winner wired the field at a huge price. There is rain in the forecast for later this week, and a wet track would obviously move this runner up, as he ran the race of his life in beating Blewitt over a sloppy, sealed track two back.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,6,7