PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 1 - 2 - 3
Race 2:   5 - 3 - 1 - 2
Race 3:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 4:   4 - 6 - 2 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 5 - 1A - 7
Race 6:   1 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 7:   6 - 2 - 3
Race 8:   10 - 3 - 6 - 4

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 7: SEAHORSE D’ORO (#6)

Save Grace (#2) had shown some promise for her prior connections, impressively breaking her maiden against claimers at Keeneland before putting in a game effort last time at Churchill when stepped up against winners. She’s now moving up in class to the starter allowance level, but isn’t catching the toughest field. The major question for her is the stretch-out, since she’s never raced beyond 7 furlongs. She’s bred to go this far and gives the impression she should handle it. Yet Mike Maker is just 5 for 32 (16%, $1.24 ROI) first off the claim going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years. I’m not against her, but I didn’t want to default to a favorite with things to prove. Seahorse d’Oro (#6) figures to get overlooked as she ships in from Parx, even with this field scratching down to just four horses. She’s a little light on speed figures compared to the favorite, but she does appear to be heading in the right direction since getting claimed by Tyler Servis. She closed determinedly for third last time at a big price, beaten for the second time in a row by Princess Sophie, who was 5 for 9 at the time. This mare has run well on the circuit before and appears to building back up to another peak, on the heels of two improved workouts. Tyler Servis can win races on this circuit and usually sends live runners here. I also find it to be a good sign that she’s coming her to run in a protected spot, rather than offered up for a tag.

WIN: #6 Seahorse d'Oro, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 8: BABY MAN (#10)

I’m mildly skeptical of Glowsity (#1), who could vie for favoritism in this N1X allowance. She’s beat a fairly weak group of starter allowance foes last time in her first start on the circuit. She was a visually impressive winner by over 7 lengths, but she only earned a 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure, which makes just one of many contenders. I’m not sure she’s quite ready for this class test, though I am afraid of the connections. Among the favorites, I much prefer Spiked (#3). This filly may have found the 1 1/8 miles distance to be a bit too far for her last time. She took over in upper stretch and appeared to have the victory wrapped up before she got to drifting in the last furlong, which ultimately resulted in her disqualification. The slight turnback to a mile should suit her and she seems to be in strong form ever since John Terranova added blinkers two back. Suspended Campaign (#4) also makes some sense out of the Jan. 12 affair. She’s the one who got bumped by Spiked in deep stretch, forcing the inquiry. She wasn’t going to win that day, but she did seem to improve off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. The one-turn mile figures to help her, as she generally does her best work when some pace develops up front. Pharoah’s Heart (#6) is another who could be running late, but she has to prove she can handle added ground. She tried route distances twice in California as a younger horse with mixed results. She ran well to be second to Crystal Ball in a two-turn mile race, but she was the beaten favorite. Her recent form leaves something to be desired, but it is worth noting that she got a poor trip two back at Churchill. I won’t be shocked if she improves here, though I have some reservations about her overall upside. My top pick is Baby Man (#10). She was soundly beaten by Spiked and Suspended Campaign last time, but 9 furlongs has always been too far for her. I like her turning back, and she has run some speed figures that make her competitive here. She’s also drawn well outside of some of her main pace rivals. Yet the most appealing thing about her is that she’s making her first start off the claim for Tom Morley. This barn is 20 for 112 (18%, $2.69 ROI) first off the claim in general, and Morley is 8 for 25 (32%, $3.69 ROI) off the claim for Flying P Stable. Jose Gomez knows this filly well and the addition of blinkers suggests that the plan is to use her speed.

WIN: #10 Baby Man, at 5-1 or greater
USE: 3,4,6