by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 7 - 9 - 1
Race 2: 1 - 3 - 4 - 2
Race 3: 2 - 1A - 3 - 5
Race 4: 1 - 4 - 7 - 8
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 4 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 6 - 7 - 3
Race 7: 2 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 8: 9 - 5 - 8 - 6
Race 9: 4 - 1 - 9 - 3
RACE 1: C. B LOVES A FIGHT (#3)
Necromancer is the horse to beat as he drops down to the lowest maiden claiming level of his career. He was sent off favored at the $40k level last time and ran like a horse who wanted no part of a mile. He was in contention until upper stretch before noticeably shortening stride through the lane. His performance was also negatively affected by a strong rail bias on Jan. 16, as he was traveling 3-wide for his entire trip. I like the cutback, but I’m concerned that he’s a horse who just never runs through the wire. He appears to lack some fight so I’m reticent to take a short price even at this lower level. I have similar feelings about Dr. Levy, but he may at least offer better value going out for the low-profile Leah Gyarmati barn. He showed ability in his debut but has run poorly in two subsequent starts at route distances. The turnback should help, but he’s not particularly trustworthy either. This has the look of a potentially bad race, so I’m going for a bigger price. C. B Loves a Fight hasn’t shown much in his two prior starts, which came just 8 days apart last year. However, he was facing a tougher field when he made his debut sprinting on Dec. 10. He actually was making up some ground through the stretch that day before flattening out. Then last time he just didn’t handle the mile in a race won in dominant fashion, and he was basically eased late. This full-brother to sprinter New York Banker should appreciate the cutback, and I think he may have a bit more ability than those first two running lines indicate. The barn is a little cold right now, but this horse will be a massive price and is one of the few with upside in a race where others have already established their mediocrity.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,6,7,9
RACE 5: CUPIDS GIRL (#3)
Everyoneloveslinda nearly got the job done in her second start at Saratoga, leading all the way until the final jump before the wire. She was sent favored in her next start, but was unable to contend with a trio of first time starters who completed the trifecta. Those speed figures that she earned last year make her very competitive against this field if she can return in the same form. Yet she’s been off, and returns in the barn of original trainer Ed Barker. He is 4 for 18 (22%, $2.06 ROI) off 90-180 day layoffs in dirt sprints over 5 years. She has the speed to make the lead, but may have to duel with Charlottesometimes early. I prefer the two fillies with recency. Sweet Solare figures to vie for favoritism in her second start. There was some buzz about her on debut, as she took some money to go off at 3-1. She was away to an awkward start and found herself in mid-pack early, having to be ridden to maintain that position on the turn. She stayed on gamely through the stretch, but did lose second late. Horacio De Paz does well with runners like this, but I prefer the horse that ran by her in the closing stages last time. Cupids Girl’s speed figures are consistently a cut below what’s needed to win at this level. Yet she’s actually run deceptively well on a few occasions. She showed promise to pass half the field in her debut after a very slow start. She justifiably took money second time out, but was trying to make up ground against a rail bias through the lane. Then last time she got held up behind a moderate pace before closing with a flourish through the stretch. I think she’s still a bit underrated, and is likely to be a square price here given the perceived upside among her rivals.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
RACE 7: BIG AL’S GAL (#2)
Witch Hunter could go favored here despite getting eased at this level last time out. Clearly something went amiss that day, and it’s somewhat encouraging that she’s returning with no alarming drop in class. That said, I wasn’t a fan of hers last time, since she appeared to be dressed up off races against weaker company at Finger Lakes and Gulfstream. She fits from a speed figure standpoint, but she’s hardly a standout and the turnback to 6 1/2 furlongs is a bit of an unknown. I’m even more squarely against Fancy Feline, who could also attract support. She rode a strong rail bias when she won last time, improving her speed figure substantially over her prior best. I would be surprised if she were able to run back to that effort. I prefer the two runners drawn towards the inside. Cinderella’s Cause has picked up a minor award at this level in the past, and now she’s making her first start off the claim for Chris Englehart. Yet perhaps more notably, she’s claimed away from Chad Summers, whose runners went 9 for 23 (39%, $2.56 ROI) first off a claim away from him over the past 5 years. My top pick is Big Al’s Gal, who also goes first off the claim for a new barn. Antonio Arriaga has better stats with routers than sprinters off the claim, but I still think this mare could improve off the trainer change. She had little chance to make up ground last time in a merry-go-round race which featured a slow pace. And two back, she was planted down inside on a day when the rail was dead. Her recent form isn’t as poor as it looks, and she should appreciate any moisture in the track with rain likely to fall on Friday.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with 4,6,7
RACE 8: SILIPO (#9)
It will be interesting to see how the public bets this race. I pegged Red Revolution as the lukewarm favorite on the morning line, and I’m unsure about how to handle this gelding. He ran a competitive speed figure in his maiden-breaking score last time, but he was beating a terrible field on a weird day that produced some wildly slow times. I want to see it again, but he’s obviously a win candidate off that recent effort. Good Skate also exits a maiden win, but he actually beat a field of reasonable quality last time out. The third-place finisher came back to hit the board against a tough maiden special weight field on Thursday, and the fourth-place finisher won next time out with an improved speed figure. Good Skate has to get a mile here, but he’s drawn well outside of his main pace rival. Printrack could also take money as the likely pacesetter. However, the Linda Rice barn has been extremely cold, going 1 for 23 (4%, $0.17 ROI) first off the claim at the current Aqueduct meet. A few horses exit a race at this level on Feb. 3. The one that I want from that affair is Hot Stepper, who was guided down to the worst part of the track along the rail to make his move before flattening out. Otherwise he’s been improving lately and goes out for a hot barn. My top pick is Silipo. This gelding lost his way a bit after winning his debut at Saratoga last summer. Yet he showed some gameness to win at Parx on Dec. 29, and took a big step forward in his subsequent two starts. He ran well against a bias two back at Aqueduct, and followed that up with a visually impressive win at Parx last time. Added ground is not supposed to be a problem for this half-brother to route stakes winner Not That Brady.
Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 3,5,6,8
Trifecta: 9 with 5,8 with 3,5,6,7,8
RACE 9: EASY SHOT (#4)
Mexican Wonder Boy is the horse to beat as he drops slightly in class first off the claim for Ray Handal. This barn is in the midst of a strong meet, and he’s getting this horse from a pair of stables, Mertkan Kantarmaci and Linda Rice, who have been a little cold over the past few months. Mexican Wonder Boy’s last race is also stronger than it appears. He blew the start, getting off slowly, and had to rush up in the opening furlongs to contest the pace. He faded at the end, but was beaten by two quality animals. He’s landing a contention field, but he’s the speed from the rail and could be tough to catch. Auburn Hills is perhaps his main rival as he drops in class. This horse has been facing significantly tougher company at the allowance level recently. His form has tailed off slightly as of late, but he figures to appreciate the class relief. That said, he’s another horse with speed in a race that could feature a pretty quick pace up front. I want a runner who can pick up the pieces from off the pace. The one who interests me most is Easy Shot. This horse comes in a little light on speed figures, but he’s had some excuses in his recent starts. I think 6 furlongs is just too short for him, so I’m not too concerned by his recent defeats. He faced a better field two back, and last time had little chance to close into a slow pace. He had run deceptively well in his most recent dirt route attempt last July at Saratoga, and he figures to get pace to close into. Gustavo Rodriguez has had success off the claim in his first year on his own, but I think this horse could still fly under the radar in such a competitive field.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,3,9
Trifecta: 4 with 1,9 with 1,2,3,9