by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 4 - 6 - 5
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 2 - 3 - 4 - 6
Race 5: 7 - 1 - 8 - 4
Race 6: 7 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 7: 9 - 8 - 2 - 1
Race 8: 2 - 1A - 8 - 7
RACE 1: FLIRTACIOUS KISS (#3)
There’s little reliable form to analyze in this Aqueduct opener, so the public will probably gravitate towards lightly raced runners like The Glenmore or Bewps. Of that pair of second time starters, I prefer The Glenmore, who exits a decent race at this level. She was never a threat to winner Shaker Shack, but she stayed on well until the late stages while staying near the rail throughout. She has enough pedigree to suggest that added distance shouldn’t be an issue. I trust her more than Bewps, who didn’t show much ability or take any money when she debuted against maiden special weight company. The Asmussen barn has poor statistics with dropdowns of this type. The obvious alternative with route experience is Flower’s Fortune, but she’s hard to trust after fading badly in two consecutive starts. She’d be formidable if able to recapture the form she displayed on Nov. 22, but she may have gone the wrong way since then. I want to get a little more creative with longshot Flirtacious Kiss. She’s a player in this race based on her race two back when she finished fourth in a fast race for the level, earning a competitive 72 TimeformUS Speed Figure. The obvious problem is that none of her surrounding performances are as strong. Yet I can make some excuses, as one of those was in the mud, and last time she was wide against a strong rail bias, basically eased in the late stages. The stretch-out in distance is a question mark, but she goes out for an underrated trainer who is having a strong meet.
Win/Place: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6
RACE 3: DARK STORM (#4)
This is a fascinating open claiming event for just a 6-horse field. First Line seems a little tough to like, but you can make a valid case for the other 5 runners in this lineup. The venerable 7-year-old Twisted Tom may no longer be the horse he once was, but he’s nevertheless maintained solid form into his latter years, carving out a niche for himself as a consistent performer at the NY-bred $40k/N2X condition. He’s now moving up in class slightly, but has been facing some strong fields in recent starts. However, it should be noted that he may not have run as well as it seems last time, as he benefited from a strong rail bias. That said, he has prior recent efforts that make him a major player, and he’s a specialist at this 9-furlong distance. Grumps Little Tots returns from a freshening since being claimed back by Rob Atras, who previously had him last summer. Atras got some solid performances out of this guy, especially considering the fact that he was taking the horse over from Jason Servis. He appeared to be back in top form last August when finishing a close third at this level with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. While he regressed for new connections after that, the fact that he’s back with Dubb and Atras now has to be considered a good sign. I’m using him, but I’m more interested in a bigger price. Dark Storm got the job done last time out for a $16k claiming tag, which is a far cry from today's $50k level. That said, he was meeting a slew of dropdowns in that heat, a few of which have already returned to perform well (Supreme Aura lost a $32k claimer by a nose with a 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure). While he’s achieved his best speed figures going a bit shorter, he did run well in his two starts going this 1 1/8 miles distance as a three-year-old. Furthermore, he possesses some of the best tactical speed in a relatively paceless race, so he could work out the right trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1,5 with 1,3,5,6
RACE 4: RUVIES IN TIME (#2)
The two major players in this race, Ruvies in Time and Miss Jimmy, faced off last time in a similar race at this level on Jan. 31. Miss Jimmy finished just ahead of her rival that day, as both were defeated by the late-running Elegant Zip. Yet Jan. 31 was a day that featured a dead rail that appeared to compromise horses racing anywhere near the inside path. That hindered both Miss Jimmy and Ruvies in Time, as each of them raced in the rail path until the quarter pole. Given that track profile, we saw many winners close down the center of the track on that Jan. 31 card. That’s why I’m especially confident that Ruvies In Time will rebound with a better effort on this occasion. Not only was she on the rail early, but she spurted away and was battling back all the way down to the wire while racing on the rail, even as Miss Jimmy attempted to rally outside of her in the lane. Ruvies in Time has been in excellent form since fall for Rick Schosberg, having turned the corner ever since that confidence-building win against $12.5k claimers last October. She rode a bias to victory on Dec. 19, but she proved that the performance was no fluke last time when running nearly as well in defeat. This time she figures to be the controlling speed from the inside, which has been an advantage in recent weeks at Aqueduct. I strongly prefer this pair of mares to the 4-year-old Impazible Donna. While she is coming off a victory at the N1X level, she was facing slightly weaker company in that race and hasn't yet faced the level of competition that she encounters here.
Win: 2
Exacta: 2 with 3,4
Trifecta: 2 with 3 with 4,5,6
RACE 7: OK HONEY (#9)
Mabel Island is the horse to beat as she makes her second start at Aqueduct after achieving all of her prior victories at Parx. She basically transferred her form to the new circuit last time, but just got run down in the late stages after setting an honest pace. She’s probably the horse you want most out of that Feb. 6 affair and the stretch-out in distance doesn’t figure to hinder her. However, the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace again, as there is other speed signed on here. I’m using her, but there are others to consider coming out of different races. I’m Fine has been in strong form since turning back on dirt for Jeremiah Englehart. I’m not overly concerned about her returning to a mile here, since she’s staying around one turn. However, she does need a total pace meltdown to be successful. I want to go in a different direction with a horse that I’ve been chasing recently. Ok Honey ran very well on Dec. 19 when she closed for fourth while racing 4-wide on a day when the rail was the place to be. That’s proven to be a strong race as all of the horses who finished ahead of her have since come back to run well in similar spots. Unlike those mares, Ok Honey regressed out of that effort, but she has had excuses. She was on a potentially bad rail on Dec. 31, and then last time she was compromised by a slow pace. I’m very intrigued by this claim. She basically ran twice a month for her prior connections with mixed results and now Greg DiPrima, who does a good job, has given her a brief freshening. If the pace heats up, I think she can get into the mix with one of her good efforts.
Win/Place: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,3,8