by David Aragona
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Race 1: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 2: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 1 - 3
Race 4: 4 - 7 - 1A - 6
Race 5: 4 - 9 - 5 - 2
Race 6: 1 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 7: 4 - 2 - 3 - 6
Race 8: 9 - 1A - 3 - 5
RACE 2: SIENA MAGIC (#5)
Despite the fact that it only drew five horses, I found this to be one of the tougher races on this card. Fox Red has to be considered the horse to beat as he drops in class after facing tougher open-claiming foes last time. He didn’t run particularly well in that Dec. 28 race, but it’s possible that he didn’t care for the sloppy, sealed track since he also ran poorly in his only other start over a wet surface. He also may have reacted badly to running back in just eight days. His prior effort for the Toscano barn was actually pretty decent despite the fact that he finished fifth. He earned a 107 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance, which makes him formidable here. I’m definitely using him, but I do have some lingering concerns that he’s heading in the wrong direction. Shamrock Kid appears to be his main rival off his solid thirdplace finish at a similar level last time. That was arguably a tougher field than this one despite the lower claiming range, and he did well to be third while turning back in distance. I think he’s another legitimate contender, but I want to look elsewhere. My top pick is Siena Magic in his first start off the claim for Rudy Rodriguez. I know that he has to improve on his recent starts, but I think that is likely to occur given Rudy’s record with horses of this type. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 11 (36 percent, $3.80 ROI) first off the claim with horses who won their maidens last time out on dirt. What I like about this son of Candy Ride is his grit and determination. I thought he actually ran the best race of all two back when he was closing with a rush after going wide off the far turn. He had to work hard to win second off the layoff last time and may have benefitted from dueling with a camera-shy foe. However, I think this colt still has some upside, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this new barn do well with him.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 3 with 1,4
RACE 5: DARING DISGUISE (#4)
There are legitimate reasons to respect the likely favorite, Smooth Tales. While he wasn’t facing the strongest maiden field in his debut, I thought he ran fairly well within the context of that race. Winner Hushion is a speedy colt, and Smooth Tales did well to stay in touch with that foe early before fading in deep stretch. Linda Rice has a knack for improving these horses in their second career starts. Over the past five years, she is 9 for 24 (38 percent, $2.55 ROI) with maiden second-time starters stretching out on dirt. My only problem with this runner is his pedigree. He’s not really bred to be a dirt router since Forty Tales is more a sprint sire and his dam’s family was best on turf. Furthermore, I’m afraid that he liked the sloppy track in his debut, and I didn’t get the sense that more distance would be to his liking. I’m using him out of respect for the connections, but I actually prefer Rice’s other horse, the first-time starter Daring Disguise. I’m a big fan of this colt’s family, as he is a half-brother to multiple stakes-winning New York-breds Holiday Disguise and Midnight Disguise. While both of those fillies are proficient at a variety of distances, this colt’s female family does have plenty of stamina influences, especially stemming from the second generation. We haven’t seen sire Verrazano do too much with his first crop, but I won’t be surprised if this colt has some ability. Rice has mediocre debut numbers overall, but she actually does much better with horses making their first starts in dirt routes. The winners in that sample debuted against maiden-claiming foes, but I still think the angle holds water.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,9
RACE 7: GENTLE ANNIE (#4)
This is another race that gave me plenty of trouble. I acknowledge that Leah’s Dream and Passporttovictory are the two most likely winners, but I’m not really enamored with either option at a very short price. They exit a common race on Dec. 14 in which Passporttovictory outran Leah’s Dream to the wire after that one had led for most of the way. Passporttovictory did have to pause briefly in the stretch while rallying up the rail, and it may have cost her the victory. She would be the one I want out of that race, but it’s hard to overlook her disappointing loss as the even-money favorite last time out. I suppose she’ll appreciate getting back on a fast track, but I don’t fully trust her to rebound. This strikes me as the sort of race that could completely fall apart. Leah’s Dream gets a negative rider switch and has distance limitations. Turn and Bern has never run fast enough to be considered a serious threat, and Cryinthemoonlight is a total wild card as she returns from the layoff. All of these horses will take some money, which should cause Gentle Annie to drift up to double-digit odds. I don’t love Gentle Annie as a racehorse, but she’s going to get ignored in the wagering, and she’s really not that inferior to the shorter prices. After all, she actually defeated Passporttovictory last time, closing into a race where the pace held together. She’s been steadily improving ever since winning her maiden, and I like that Gary Sciacca has been putting live riders on her back, which he does again here, naming Jose Lezcano.
Win/Place: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,6