by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

Race 1:   1 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 2:   1 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   4 - 2 - 6 - 5
Race 5:   2 - 8 - 3 - 4
Race 6:   5 - 4 - 2 - 3
Race 7:   2 - 7 - 3 - 4
Race 8:   6 - 3 - 8 - 5

TOP PLAYS

RACE 4: PHANTOMOFTHEFROST (#4)
It’s Hot Out and Bad Guy are useful horses, but they’ve had their chances. Neither has run a particularly fast speed figure, which leads me to believe that a first-time starter can beat them with a merely decent effort. The one going out for the best debut barn is Analyze the Bill, who left Todd Pletcher’sstring at Palm Beach Downs to ship up north about a month ago. This colt is bred to be a runner since his dam was a multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter, as was her first foal, Clipthecouponannie. The major difference between this horse and his half-sibling is that she was by top sire Uncle Mo, and he is sired by the lesser-known stallion Overanalyze. Mediocre workouts don’t get the pulse racing, but Pletcher knows how to win with these types. However, the first-time starter who really interests me is Phantomofthefrost. Tom Morley is not known for winning with first-time starters, but he has seen better results with his firsters during the past couple of seasons. Recently, he sent out Go Get the Munny to impressively win his debut, and Phantomofthefrost was apparently working in company with that horse throughout January. While this gelding’s dam was a cheap claimer, she is a half-sister to Queen’s Plate winner Midnight Aria and Lone Star Derby winner Wanna Runner, so there is some quality in the family. The swift morning drills suggest that he has some ability.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 2,3,5,6

 

RACE 6: MY LAST MILLION (#5)
This looks like a two-horse race between My Roxy Girl and My Last Million. I strongly prefer the latter filly, who just seems to be hitting her stride after racing greenly in her first few starts. She showed speed before fading in her debut at Finger Lakes but then ran significantly faster in her next start at Aqueduct. That day, she showed a lack of focus through the stretch, as she shied away from the whip and switched leads multiple times. Charlton Baker gave her a makeover for her third attempt, adding blinkers and Lasix, and that seemed to do the trick. She was much more professional right from the start on Jan. 19 and drew off with authority in the lane. Her speed figure for that effort makes her one of the fastest horses in this race, but I think that number could have been higher given the large gaps between runners and the fact that a few also-rans were assigned much lower figures than they had previously earned. This time, she should sit a great trip stalking the speeds to her inside, and she appears better equipped than her rivals to handle seven furlongs.

Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 2,4 with ALL

 

RACE 7: CHILLY BON BON (#2)
Charming Indy probably comes into this off the best performance, having finished a close second against starterallowance company Jan. 26. That was a day that strongly favored runners on the rail, and Charming Indy was approximately two wide throughout while chasing the winner, who benefitted from the bias. He’s certainly a win candidate here, but he was beaten by a few of today’s rivals in his prior start, which came at this class level. In that Jan. 18 race, both Chilly Bon Bon and Blugrascat’s Smile finished ahead of him. The latter runner may be hindered by an outside post position here, whereas Chilly Bon Bon is drawn perfectly down toward the inside. There isn’t much early speed in this race, and Kendrick Carmouche figures to send Chilly Bon Bon to the lead. This horse handles two turns and has run his best races when able to control things on the front end. At anything around his morning-line odds of 7-2, I think he’s the right bet.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,4,5,7