by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 1 - 6 - 4 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 3: 4 - 6 - 8 - 7
Race 4: 5 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 5: 5 - 8 - 3 - 7
Race 6: 5 - 3 - 4 - 9
Race 7: 6 - 2 - 1 - 11
Race 8: 9 - 10 - 4 - 3
RACE 1: COMMUNAL (#1)
Lady Hester deserves to be a prohibitive favorite in this spot after a solid runner-up finish at this level last month. Stretching out in distance for the first time since coming to this country, she shared the lead through relatively slow early fractions before ultimately succumbing to her pace rival. While that effort came over a muddy track, she had run comparable speed figures in her prior fast-track starts, so I’m not overly concerned about track condition. I just think this mare probably always wanted to go route distances, and her British form would also indicate that. I’m using her prominently, but she’s going to be a very short price today and I think there are some other options to consider. I’m taking a shot with Communal. I realize that her return from the layoff last time was highly disappointing, but I think you can make some excuses for that performance. Communal was away from the gate a bit sluggishly and seemed to resent running through the muddy kickback on the backstretch. She briefly tried to mount a rally on the turn before flattening out late in a race that was dominated toward the front end. Something obviously went awry in her second start, so it’s possible that she just can’t race competitively anymore. However, she did show some ability in her career debut. That wasn’t the strongest maiden field, but she nevertheless earned a speed figure that makes her competitive here. Furthermore, she’s bred to stretch-out, since her dam Centring preferred distances of a mile or farther.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 2,4,5
RACE 7: VICAR’S LEGEND (#6)
This is easily the most intriguing race on the card, as there are a number of enigmatic contenders. Two of the most naturally talented horses in the race are Quest for Fire and Dark Ops, but both are difficult to trust. Quest for Fire returned from a lengthy layoff following his fast debut win and never appeared to be comfortable. He’s now returning just 6 weeks later in the barn of Ray Handal and needs to turn his form around. Dark Ops was perhaps even more impressive when breaking his maiden back in October, but he looked like a completely different horse when abruptly stopping on the turn as the 1-2 favorite last time. What complicates matters even further for these two is the likely pace scenario, since the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace. Both of these horses broke their maidens while racing on uncontested early leads and they are unlikely to enjoy such soft trips here with speedy runners like Foolish Ghost and Three to Thirteen also in the mix. Among the short prices, I prefer Ready to Escape. He ran fast to break his maiden last time, finally putting it all together after showing promise in his first four starts. I didn’t like the way he drifted out through the lane last time, especially since he’s apparently had some physical issues. That said, he’s proven that he’s capable of stalking the pace in prior starts. Another horse to consider is Charlie McCoy. He ran a strong race at this level back in June and has had excuses since then, as he caught a sloppy track two back and was badly compromised by a poor start last time. I’m using both of these runners, but I think this is a race in which we can look outside the box. I’m taking a shot with bigger price Vicar’s Legend. I know he looks cheaper than these at first glance, but this gelding has been steadily improving in his recent starts. He hinted that he was starting to round into form with his fourth-place effort on Nov. 10, and he has consistently improved in each start since. His most recent performance on Dec. 22 was clearly his best, as he traveled well every step of the way and might have finished much closer if not for traffic in the stretch. This is the toughest field he’s ever encountered, but I think the added furlong and an expected fast pace will benefit him.
Win/Place: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,11
Trifecta Box: 1,2,6
Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 3,4,8,11