by David Aragona
 

Assuming we’re able to race as scheduled, Friday’s card is very likely to feature a wet main track, as there is a significant amount of rain in the forecast. Also note that a number of horses trained by Linda Rice will be forced to scratch, as was reported yesterday by Dave Grening, due to a quarantine at her Belmont barn. Those runners include Vilma (first race), Cocktail Countess (second), Acquainted (seventh), and Holiday Disguise (eighth). Therefore, I’ve excluded all of those horses from my picks below.

The featured La Verdad, race 8, drew an accomplished field of New York-bred fillies and mares, led by recent stakes winners Absatootly and Quezon. That race kicks off a late double sequence that concludes with the ninth, a fully-loaded maiden special weight for New York-breds that is as contentious a race of this variety as you’ll see contested all winter.

For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day, including multi-race wagers, track trends, and other observations. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1:   4 - 5 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   8 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 3:   3 - 1 - 4 - 2
Race 4:   4 - 5 - 3 - 7
Race 5:   7 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 6:   7 - 1A - 2/2B - 6
Race 7:   9 - 8 - 7 - 1
Race 8:   1 - 6 - 2 - 3
Race 9:   4 - 10 - 7 - 6

TOP PLAYS

RACE 5: PEGASUS RED (#7)
This is a highly competitive New York-bred claiming race in which you can make a reasonable case for six of the seven runners. Installed as the second choice on the morning line, Brimstone might be the horse to beat by a slim margin. He turns back in distance to six furlongs after going farther against tougher company in his recent starts. There is rain in the forecast for Friday, and he’s run well over wet tracks in the past. However, he’s also been a horse who needs the lead, and he figures to get early company from Fratello Del Nord and perhaps even Global Positioning. I’m hoping that the early pace is honest because I like the closer Pegasus Red. His last race, the first off the claim by Jason Servis, was not quite as bad as it seems. Seven furlongs is a bit of a stretch for him, and he worked out an uncomfortable trip, chasing the pace four wide all the way around the far turn. He typically does better when he’s reserved at the back of the pack and makes one late run. While Servis does well off the claim, he has similarly strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 17 for 48 (35 percent, $2.24 ROI) second off the claim in dirt sprints, and that ROI goes even higher if you limit the sample to horses who lost first off the claim.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,4,6

 

RACE 8: WONDERMENT (#1)
After a somewhat disappointing start to 2017, Quezon has gotten back on track during her last three starts. She finished a strong third against graded stakes rivals in the Gallant Bloom back in September and has since put forth two solid efforts. She’s earned some of the highest speed figures of her career recently and is a deserving favorite in this race. Rain in the forecast should not hinder her at all since she’s equally adept on wet tracks as she is on dry surfaces. Her main rival is Absatootly, who has traded decisions with the favorite in their last two starts. Absatootly has employed contrasting running styles in those races, closing from far back to run a career-best race and beat Quezon in the Iroquois before leading early and fading in the Garland of Roses last time. With no confirmed front-runners in this race, she may be forced to adopt more aggressive tactics once again. I respect both of these mares, but given the likely conditions, I want to take a shot against them with Wonderment. I know that it looks like she’s gone off form recently, but I don’t think her recent form is as bad as it seems. A sloppy track would seriously enhance her chances. Unlike Quezon, who merely replicates her dry-track from on wet surfaces, Wonderment appears to really move up with moisture in the track. Furthermore, I like the rider switch back to Dylan Davis, who knows her well and will probably ride her from off the pace this time, which is her preferred style.

Win/Place: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,6

 

RACE 9: PUFFERY (#4)
Due to the recent racing cancellations, a full field of 3-year-old fillies has been assembled for this unusually strong New York-bred maiden race. While there’s no clear favorite, tepid morning line choice Scorpion Bowl is undoubtedly one of the key players. Linda Rice has fantastic numbers with second-time starters and has done particularly well at Aqueduct. Over the past five years, she is 24 for 55 (44 percent, $3.49) with second-time-starting maidens in dirt sprints at this track. This filly also performed like a horse who badly needed a race. After showing speed immediately after the start, she appeared to lose focus as Paco Lopez relaxed his hands heading into the far turn. She steadied out of position and briefly appeared poised to finish well back in the pack. However, once into the stretch, she responded to her rider’s mild encouragement and might have even gotten up for third had she not steadied late. She figures to run a much more professional race this time and show much more early initiative. However, too much early aggression could be problematic in a race where a number of contenders appear to have speed. For that reason, I’m trying to beat her with Puffery. This Mark Hennig trainee was soundly defeated at a short price last time, but she got a fairly uncomfortable trip that day. Racing down inside, Puffery had to steady at multiple points while getting shuffled back around the far turn. Already out of contention by the time the field reached the top of the stretch, she was not hard-ridden through the final furlongs. I’m hoping that she still got something out of the race because she had previously run fast enough in her debut to suggest she can beat this field. I’ll primarily use her with Scorpion Bowl. However, at a much bigger price, I also want to include longshot My Lightnin Strike. This filly showed vastly improved speed in her second start, albeit on turf. She has a decidedly dirt-leaning pedigree, so perhaps she’s getting back on the right surface here.

Win: 4
Exacta Box: 4,7,10
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,11