PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 7 - 1 - 10
Race 2:   4 - 1 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   4 - 1 - 6 - 5
Race 4:   6 - 9 - 8 - 7
Race 5:   4 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 6:   5 - 1 - 6 - 9
Race 7:   10 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 8:   3 - 6 - 5 - 8

PLAYS

RACE 2: KANSAS KIS (#4)
This is a relatively interesting race for just a 5-horse field, as you can make a decent case for all of the runners involved. The horse to beat is probably Jennemily, who finished a solid second at this level last time going this same one-mile distance. She was no match for the vastly improved Ujjayi in the last furlong of that race, but she nevertheless finished 7 lengths clear of the rest of the field while earning a 108 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She set the pace that day, but she’s also comfortable stalking. She’ll be tough for this field to handle if able to repeat that last effort, but she’s not exactly the most consistent horse. Stand for the Flag makes her second start off a layoff after she was overmatched upon return in the Go For Wand last time. This is a more appropriate spot, but it remains to be seen if she can produce her best form since getting transferred to Rob Atras’s barn from Jason Servis. I want to go in a different direction. My top pick is Kansas Kis. Some might say that last time was the right time to have her when she won and paid $33. However, I think that race made it clear that she’s just returned as an improved, mature horse since the summer layoff. She was such a big price last time due to the presence of heavy favorite Center Aisle. Yet she made a decisive move on the turn, shrugged off the favorite’s challenge, and still held off a late run at the wire. That was going 6 1/2 furlongs, and I do believe shorter is better. Yet this is just a one-turn mile, and she proved she could run a top race going this distance in the Busher last year when she made a premature move into a fast pace and just got nailed on the wire.

Win: 4
Exacta: 4 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with ALL

RACE 6: ROAD TO MEATH (#5)
There’s no disputing that Heirloom Kitten is a deserving favorite as he gets some significant class relief. However, I do think it’s fair to question how short of a price you want to accept on a horse whose form may be tailing off a bit. The Linda Rice barn, which typically does quite well through the winter months, has been relatively cold lately, going 2 for 32 (6%, $1.07 ROI) over the past 30 days at Aqueduct. That said, Heirloom Kitten’s recent speed figures do make him a standout. While he’s been soundly defeated in his last two starts, he was meeting much tougher company at the N1X allowance level in those races. Furthermore, the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on contesting the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. The only horse that I view as a real danger to him is the other speed in the race, Road to Meath. Heirloom Kitten would have to regress slightly and Road to Meath would have to rebound for there to be an upset. However, I think that’s a distinct possibility. Road to Meath shouldn’t be judged off his last performance, as he was bumped and squeezed back at the start, forcing him out of position early. From there, he got too rank and never had any hope of lasting the demanding 9 furlongs after such a start. His prior form on dirt is solid and he should appreciate the cutback to a one-turn mile. Given the likely pace scenario and the fact that he’s going to be a square price, I’ll give him the slight nod over the prohibitive favorite.

Win: 5
Exacta Box: 1,5

RACE 7: MALIBU PRO (#10)
Shotski is the horse to beat as he returns from a layoff and makes his 4-year-old debut. This horse showed real talent as a youngster, first when winning the Grade 2 Remsen over this track as a 2-year-old. He may have benefited from a somewhat speed-favoring surface that day, but his performance has held up better than those attempting to close behind him. He validated that form when finishing second in the Withers, and then was hardly disgraced when fourth in the Fountain of Youth after a very wide trip. A planned start in the UAE Derby was aborted after he had shipped to Dubai, and he was given plenty of time off after that. While I think he’s the most talented horse in this field, he doesn’t face an easy task in his return from the layoff. He’s drawn the inside post position in a race that features some significant pace rivals to his outside. Furthermore, Jeremiah O’Dwyer is just 1-for-16 (6%, $0.75 ROI) off layoffs of 180 days or more over the past 5 years. I’m using him prominently, but I’m taking a small shot against him this time. Among the obvious alternatives are High Velocity and Montauk Traffic. I prefer the latter due to the projected pace scenario. Montauk Traffic should get the kind of setup that he needs. I’m just not really sure that he’s fast enough to beat this field. While he was against the track on Dec. 19, I still would have liked to see him finish a bit better that day, especially as he’s stretching out here. I’m going in a different direction with Malibu Pro. This horse looks a little cheaper than the other contenders in this race, but his recent speed figures indicate that he’s fast enough to win. I was highly skeptical of him getting the 9 furlongs last time, but he did so gamely, sustaining a far turn move before gamely battling on inside of the classy Someday Jones late. He should appreciate getting back to a one-turn mile, and it’s not like that recent form came out of nowhere. He has the back class to beat this field. There’s rain in the forecast late on Friday, and he hates the slop, but they should get this race in before the precipitation arrives.

Win: 10
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 10 with 1,5 with 1,4,5,6,8