by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 1 - 5 - 4
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 3 - 1/1A
Race 3: 7 - 5 - 4 - 8
Race 4: 7 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 5: 7 - 5 - 3 - 2
Race 6: 7 - 1 - 5 - 6
Race 7: 5 - 1 - 3 - 2
Race 8: 6 - 9 - 4 - 8
RACE 1: MY VICTORIA ROSE (#2)
Love to Learn is obviously the class of this field as she exits a series of N1X allowance races at Woodbine. She faced tougher fields than the one she meets today in most of those contests, and she raced competitively on more than one occasion. The major hurdle for this filly today is the switch to dirt. She clearly improved in the barn of Sid Attard last year, but it’s unclear how much of that development can be attributed to maturity as opposed to the focus on turf and synthetic racing. Now she’s switching into the barn of Brian Lynch for her return to American dirt, and this barn does not have the strongest numbers with this move. Over the past 5 years, Lynch is just 2 for 30 (7 percent, $0.54 ROI) with horses making their first start off a trainer switch on dirt. I’m definitely using this classy filly, but there are other options to consider. Summer Punch would be formidable if she were to repeat her most recent effort, but she’s now moving way up in class off the claim. Cool As You Like has run competitive speed figures on occasion, but she’s not totally reliable. I’d rather take a runner that appears to be coming into this race in top form, and that’s My Victoria Rose. I realize that she seems a bit slower than some of the main contenders, but I think she’s been subtly improving in recent starts. She was an easy winner when she broke her maiden two back, and I thought she ran deceptively well in her first start against winners on Dec. 13. She was attempting to follow rail-skimming eventual winner No Deal in the early stages, but ended up swinging outside at the top of the stretch before darting back to the inside at the eighth pole. Despite covering more ground than the winner, she was actually finishing fastest of all late and galloped out with vigor after the wire. I like that Junior Alvarado takes back the mount, and I get the sense that this once-promising runner is doing very well heading into this race.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,5 with ALL
RACE 6: WHERE’S RUDY (#7)
If Dr. Hipp runs back to his maiden score from May, he is going to beat this field. However, plenty of time has passed since then and the drop in for a tag off the lengthy layoff does not inspire confidence. His most recent start in the Pegasus at Monmouth in June was fairly disappointing considering the overall lack of quality in that field. He’s the kind of horse that you have to use prominently, but he’s going to be a very short price due to the connections and I’d rather look elsewhere. Rudy Rodriguez has two entrants in this field and both are viable alternatives. D’ambrosio has some appeal as he moves up in class off the claim. Rodriguez actually does very well with dirt routers in this situation, but I wish his recent form was more encouraging. He failed to break alertly two back and was soundly defeated by inferior rivals last time. My top pick is Rudy’s recent maiden winner Where’s Rudy. Risked for a $20,000 tag in his debut, he won with authority despite going off at surprisingly generous 6-1 odds. He showed good early speed that day and was drawing away from next-out winner Hot Mesa in the late stages. While that runner-up has had many chances at the maiden level, his effort totally validates the speed figure that Where’s Rudy was assigned for his winning effort. Now this horse is moving up in class and stretching out, but I think he may be able to handle it. There doesn’t appear to be too much early speed in this field, and he’s bred to route, since his dam is a half-sister to 2003 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Halfbridled. Over the past 5 years, Rudy Rodriguez is 8 for 32 (25 percent, $2.23 ROI) with debut winners making their second career starts on dirt.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,5,6
Trifecta: 1,7 with 1,7 with 2,4,5,6
RACE 8: QUESTEQ (#6)
Courageous Queen seems like a short-priced runner to bet against in this spot. Todd Pletcher’s barn has been enduring a relatively slow last few weeks and this filly’s recent form appears to be tailing off. Wilburnmoney is a more convincing contender. Despite racing for a lower claiming price last time, that was actually a tougher spot than this one. She has a right to be fitter in her second start off the layoff, she has back form that would make her awfully formidable. I considered picking her on top, but she’s been known to unexpectedly fail to show up from time to time. I opted to go for a slightly better price with Questeq. This John Toscano trainee is not exactly consistent either, but she looks more appealing when you parse her form and highlight her sprint races. Whether on turf or dirt, she seems to do best in races at less than a mile. She worked out a decent trip in that Nov. 14 off-the-turf race, but she nevertheless earned a speed figure that would make her a serious contender in this spot. Some may be deterred by Questeq’s poor performance last time, but that race was run over an extremely sloppy surface following a deluge. If we avoid some of the expected precipitation in the area, I think she’ll appreciate getting back on a fast track here and the slight class relief should also help.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 4,8,9