by David Aragona
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Race 1: 7 - 8 - 4 - 6
Race 2: 1 - 4 - 5 - 2
Race 3: 6 - 4 - 8 - 1/1A
Race 4: 6 - 2 - 8 - 9
Race 5: 8 - 7 - 5 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 1A - 6 - 3
Race 7: 5 - 3 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 8 - 3
Race 9: 12 - 9 - 2 - 11
RACE 2: BABY BOSS (#1)
Fair Regis has to be considered the horse to beat. This 6-time winner has previously run well at this level and usually shows up with a solid effort regardless of the competition. If she can repeat the race that she ran two back, she figures to be pretty formidable in this spot. She probably should have won that day but ended up getting too far behind in the early going and did well to rally for second. I was not as thrilled with her most recent effort, where she didn’t seem to have the same willingness to finish as in prior starts. I’m not sure what to make of the addition of blinkers for a mare with so much experience, though I do like the rider switch to Reylu Gutierrez. She figures to receive a challenge from Cartwheel, who was soundly defeated by Fair Regis on Dec. 7. However, Cartwheel broke very poorly that day and was always out of position. She ran a competitive speed figure in her prior start at Belmont, but that came at 7 furlongs and I get the sense that today’s 6-furlong trip may be just short of her ideal distance. I’m most interested in Baby Boss. I realize that she was beaten by Fair Regis last time with seemingly little excuse, but that was her first start back off a 4-month layoff. She set a moderate pace before fading, but it’s not as if she readily threw in the towel when challenged. She briefly kicked for home before shutting down in the final sixteenth, which can probably be attributed to a lack of fitness. I like this slight turnback to 6 furlongs and the Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead. She figures to work out her preferred trip either sharing the lead or stalking Sing for Beauty, and I think she can beat this field with a slight step forward.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5,7
Trifecta: 1 with 4 with 2,3,5,7
RACE 3: IT’S MY CATIECAT (#6)
At first glance, Spring Drama just appears to be too fast for this group. The 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in her dirt debut last time towers over the numbers that most of her main rivals are capable of attaining. Yet now she faces a new challenge as she turns back to a sprint distance on the main track. She was able to secure the early lead going a mile last time, but that is unlikely to happen here with some other speed signed on. Furthermore, she has shown a propensity to break slowly in her past turf starts, and such an error could be quite detrimental to her chances in a dirt race. I’m using her prominently, but I think this is a favorite that we can try to beat. I’m not enamored with either half of the entry, and 12-race Anne’s Song is tough to take even though she is in the best form of her career. Therefore, I want to take a shot with It’s My Catiecat off the layoff. I usually shy away from horses that are returning from such significant breaks, but I think this filly is landing in a relatively soft spot. While she never seriously threatened to win any of her prior starts, she faced significantly tougher fields in all of those races. Miss Hot Stones was a precocious 2-year-old in late 2017 and Split Time went on to be competitive against stakes company soon after her maiden victory. I don’t mind the turnback to 6 furlongs for his filly and Tom Albertrani is capable of having horses ready off lengthy layoffs. The 48-flat workout on Dec. 31 stands out for a barn that is not known for pushing its horses in the morning. At a slightly bigger price, I would also use second-time starter Joule in my wagers. She blew the start last time but was running on well in the stretch, and is preferable to Anne's Song exiting that race.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,4,8
RACE 6: AWESOME ADVERSARY (#5)
This race presents some opportunities because I am not a fan of the likely favorites. Poker Game figures to be the public choice after just losing by a nose at this level last time. However, he worked out a fantastic trip that day and really had no excuse to lose. I could even say the same about his prior effort on Dec. 14. I’m also not enamored with horses such as Iron Fork, who will get bet off a mediocre effort for Brad Cox, and Bettor Bank On It, who beat a terrible field before getting justifiably disqualified two back. One horse that I considered picking is Everything Pazible. This is the kind of runner that I typically favor in spots like this, since he ran deceptively well in his debut, closing determinedly along the rail after a sluggish opening few furlongs. He galloped out strongly and is bred to stretch out, so I’m optimistic about his chances. However, his price is going to be negatively affected by the presence of his entrymate Shock Therapy. I’ll use him, but I think there are some other contenders that will get ignored. The one that may offer the best value is Awesome Adversary. Some may view it as a negative that he’s had more chances than most of his rivals, but he’s been a different horse since dropping in for a tag. I thought he put forth a tenacious effort two back when he actually ran better than Poker Game, and then last time I think there’s an argument to be made that he ran the strongest race of all. That Jan. 6 race featured an inside flow on a day when the rail may have been a slight advantage. Awesome Adversary raced wide throughout and still closed well in the stretch despite losing ground earlier. He’s improving with every start and will likely go largely unnoticed in this field. At an even bigger price, I also wouldn’t discount Tazmonian Devil, who finished just behind my top pick last time after contesting the pace.
Win/Place: 5
Exacta Box: 1,5,6
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,8,11
RACE 7: TIMELY TRADITION (#5)
Steve Asmussen’s New York stable has been on fire in recent weeks, and that was certainly apparent when No Hayne No Gayne outran her 33-1 odds to finish second in the Bay Ridge Stakes at the end of December. Consistency has always been this mare’s biggest issue, but she has steadily been putting solid performances together at a higher rate since the summer. While she negotiated the two-turn 9 furlongs last time, the cutback to this one-mile distance should suit her. I think she’s the horse to beat, but she’s going to be one of the favorites this time and she’s still not the most reliable winning prospect. Her main rival is Out of Orbit, who has really increased her performance level since stretching out to the one-mile distance. She actually finished just ahead of No Hayne No Gayne last time after setting an honest early pace. I’m using both of these fillies prominently, but I think this is a pretty wide-open affair in which we can look beyond the shorter prices. My top pick is Timely Tradition, who stretches out in distance for the first time since she won her first start off the claim for this barn last August. Despite the fact that she was clearly proficient going a route of ground, Ralph D’Alessandro turned her back in distance to focus on sprinting ever since then, and she’s actually improved during that time. She made a nice late run to be second in the Arctic Queen Stakes last fall and I thought she performed admirably in her recent return to the NYRA circuit. While she couldn’t quite reel in Flat Calm in that Jan. 1 optional claiming race, she put forth a strong closing kick into a moderate pace, running her final quarter mile in under 25 seconds over a track that was playing very slowly all day. I think it’s a positive sign that she is not in for a tag this time after getting offered for $40,000 in her last start. I’m not at all concerned about the stretch-out in distance given her prior form going this far, and I believe she can grind past the favorites, many of whom aren’t the strongest finishers, in deep stretch.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4,6
RACE 8: DAWN THE DESTROYER (#5)
This race looks fairly competitive on paper. Yorkiepoo Princess is coming into this event in career form, having reeled off a couple of fast speed figures over this surface in recent months. Your Love is arguably the class of the field after finishing second in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom back in September, but she must rebound following a disappointing effort in the Go For Wand. I’m using both of these mares prominently in my wagers, but I think they will all be hard-pressed to beat the new and improved Dawn the Destroyer. Even though she’s less accomplished than the two aforementioned rivals, she may actually be favored in this race and I believe that she should be. Dawn the Destroyer looked like a different horse when she returned in that late November optional claiming race. She rated kindly just off the pace and came roaring off the far turn with a sweeping moving that carried her to an easy victory. Not only did she earn a stakes-quality speed figure, but runner-up Kathryn the Wise returned to flatter the performance by earning a massive 121 TimeformUS Speed Figure in her very next start. The most convincing part of Dawn the Destroyer’s last victory was her physical appearance. I’m not an expert when it comes to assessing horses’ physical condition, but to my eye this mare looked like a tank as she barreled through the stretch. If anything, the stretch-out to 7 furlongs should only help her cause, since her only vulnerability is that she may drop too far behind early in the race. If the same Dawn the Destroyer that we saw 8 weeks ago shows up again, they are not going to beat her.
Win: 5
Exacta: 5 with 2,3,8