by David Aragona
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Race 1: 3 - 5 - 1 - 2
Race 2: 2 - 5 - 6 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 4: 3 - 1 - 7 - 6
Race 5: 6 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 7 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 7: 1 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 8: 5 - 4 - 9 - 8
RACE 5: THIRSTY DONNERSTAG (#6)
Lacking runners who bring particularly solid credentials to this affair, a horse like Fielding Gold is probably the one to beat. He has at least run reasonably well at this level twice since returning from the layoff. Furthermore, his last race was actually better than it seems, since the running-line comment fails to note that he broke about two lengths slowly out of the gate. Considering that early trouble, he did well to finish second to the more talented Deep Sea. I think he’s one whom you need to use, but he doesn’t figure to offer much value as one of the favorites in an otherwise wide-open race. Fellow short price Archie is more of an enigma. He ran a competitive speed figure in his return last time, but the stretchout in distance is a bit of an unknown. I actually prefer a horse who finished just behind him in that Dec. 3 race. Thirsty Donnerstag is a deep closer who is often doing his best running too late. However, I do think it’s worth noting that he has improved substantially since being returned to the dirt this winter. While that Dec. 3 sprint was falling apart late, Thirsty Donnerstag still made up a ton of ground in the stretch going a distance that is too short for him. Next time out, he was badly compromised by a slow pace going seven furlongs. However, last time, when stretched out to 1 1/4 miles, he actually ran deceptively well. That race was dominated by horses who rode the rail, as the top three finishers spent the majority of their trips racing in the inside path. Thirsty Donnerstag was the only horse in the race to finish with interest after racing off the inside. He earned a competitive speed figure that day, and now I think he finds himself in an appropriate spot. There is supposed to be at least a fair pace in here with Wilshire Star and Guick likely to show early speed. If Abel Lezcano can prevent Thirsty Donnerstag from giving away too much ground in the early going, he should be running on late, and a mile may be the perfect distance.
Win/Place: 6
Trifecta: 5,6 with 5,6 with ALL
Trifecta: 5,6 with ALL with 5,6
RACE 6: MY PIRATE (#7)
At first glance, Incubator just looks too fast for his competition. He ran a Beyer Speed Figure that would crush these rivals two back at Parx (though the TimeformUS number was lower). Yet even last time, when he finished last in a local start, he earned the secondfastest TimeformUS Speed Figure in this race, just behind the number he earned in his prior start. Now he drops in for a tag for the first time and looms as a likely winner. I think he must be used, but there’s one horse in this race who has a right to show substantial improvement in his second start. My Pirate made his debut for trainer Jaime Mejia in late November at Aqueduct. He passed a few tired runners to be third against a weak field and would be hard to take here off such a dull effort, all things being equal. However, he was claimed out of that performance by John Toscano and now gets bumped up in class and stretched out in distance. It cannot be overstated what a significant trainer upgrade this is. Mejia gets a paltry TimeformUS Trainer Rating of just 16, whereas Toscano earns an overall rating of 67. This horse is certainly bred to stretch out in distance as a half-brother to stakes-winning routers like Half Heaven and Sweet Vendetta. It’s a good sign that they reach out to a live rider like Trevor McCarthy. I’ll primarily use him with favored Incubator, but I do also want to throw in Whyamisolucky, who has been somewhat green in his last two starts and may still have room for improvement.
Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 2,5
RACE 7: CAIRENN (#1)
Pray for Bourbon is probably the filly to beat off her recent win at the $40,000 level. She is now stepped up in class off the claim and figures to sit another good trip behind the speed. While I think she must be used, the Steve Asmussen barn does not have strong statistics with its claims at Aqueduct. Over the past five years, this barn is just 3 for 32 (9 percent, $0.69 ROI) first off the claim on dirt at this track. Those are surprisingly poor numbers for an outfit that often gets bet in this situation. I’m trying to beat her with the Maryland shipper Cairenn. She’s stepping up off a maiden win, but she certainly ran fast enough to beat this group last time. She earned a 79 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure, the highest numbers in this field. The horses she faced in her two starts since returning from the layoff have run back to validate the numbers that she ran. I like that her regular rider is coming in to keep the mount, and she figures to work out a great stalking trip, sitting in behind Daring Prospect and Sand City.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 1 with 2,6 with ALL