PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 2 - 5 - 4
Race 2:   6 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 3:   2 - 1 - 3 - 4
Race 4:   7 - 5 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   6 - 5 - 3 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 8 - 7 - 6
Race 7:   1 - 8 - 9 - 2
Race 8:   3 - 1 - 4 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses I picked underneath to consider upgrading in vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 4: TYRANNOSAURUS REX (#7)

It’s possible that Bernardino (#2) could go favored here off a string of superior speed figures on turf. Yet I find it awfully hard to trust this 8-year-old horse to transfer that form to dirt at this stage of his career. He has more of a turf pedigree and the connections have always avoided running him on the main track before. It appears that they’ve finally given up, as he drops in for this $25k claiming tag. The problem is finding suitable alternatives to this guy. I can’t take Patrick the Great (#3), who has been terrible in two starts for Linda Rice and didn’t run so well in his lone prior route attempt. The horse to beat might actually be Reunion Tour (#5), as he comes in with the best recent dirt form. He had a slightly better trip than today’s rival Midnight Express (#4) in that Jan. 5 race last time, but the James Ferraro trainee has gained a newfound consistency as of late. I’m expecting another good effort, but I’m not going to pick an 0 for 23 maiden on top. Therefore I’m landing on Tyrannosaurus Rex (#7). This gelding is a bit light on speed figures, but at least he has some upside in just fourth career dirt attempt. He seemed to take a step forward when returning from the layoff for Jeffrey Englehart’s barn last time. He didn’t get the most comfortable trip that day, as he got shuffled back heading into the turn before making a mild move to challenge at the quarter pole. I think added distance helps him, and he’s obviously getting a rider upgrade. Jeffrey Englehart is a trainer that doesn’t do so well off layoffs, but he is 8 for 35 (23%, $3.07 ROI) second off a layoff of 120-240 days over the past 3 years.

WIN: #7 Tyrannosaurus Rex, at 4-1 or greater

RACE 5: PATTY H (#6)

Rossa Veloce (#3) will obviously beat this field if she runs back to the 102 Beyer and 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned in her narrow victory over Beguine two back. Yet that effort is such an outlier in her past performances, so it’s a little tough to trust her to reproduce it. She came back down to Earth last time when lost as the 6-5 favorite after setting a moderate pace in the fog. If she runs that race, or her October debut for the Rob Atras barn, she’s still a contender here but isn’t some kind of standout. I’m inclined to let her beat me at a short price. I prefer her main rival Leeloo (#5) among the short prices. This filly is stepping up to the open N2X level for the first time, but she isn’t catching the toughest field. She’s been in great form recently for David Duggan, winning 3 of her last 4 starts while ascending the class ladder. She figures to be right there with her usual solid effort. Yet I’m going for a bigger price on top. Patty H (#6) could get somewhat overlooked here off a pair of disappointing losses at the level. Yet she had legitimate excuses each time. She was severely bumped at the start two back, forcing her out of position early, and then last time she broke slowly in the fog. I don’t want to be too hard on her for either of those performance, as I know she’s capable of better. She showed that three back when she nearly held off Mosienko in a similar spot. At her best she has the tactical speed to be forward here, and I think drawing outside will help her cause.

WIN: #6 Patty H, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 5

RACE 7: HANDSOME CAT (#1)

Life Changer (#9) is obviously the horse to beat after hitting the board in his last three attempts at this level. He was arguably best last time when splitting horses in the lane to just miss getting past winner Reggae Music Man late. However, the form of that race wasn’t flattered when the winner came back to run poorly in his subsequent start. I also have some doubts about the quality of a few other races he exits, and I tend to think this spot is a bit deeper. He’s surely a contender, but I didn’t feel the need to default to him at a short price. Bezos (#8) arguably put forth the best last race of anyone in this field when he finished fourth in the Gravesend. He’s been steadily improving since the claim for just $16k by Chandradat Goberdhan and will be tough for this field to handle if he repeats that 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. I don’t fully trust him, but he figures to be a fair price once again. David Jacobson has entered two in here, of which Cees Get Degrees (#2) could attract more support. Yet he made find it difficult to win this race with a speedy rival like Bezos in the field. I actually see plenty of speed signed on here, so I’m much more inclined to consider Jacobson’s other runner. Handsome Cat (#1) will benefit from any pace that develops up front. He’s not a plodder by any means, but he does have the ability to close into a quick pace, and many others in this field aren’t as comfortable using that style. I thought he might have been able to win at this level two back if Javier Castellano had been able to get him off the rail in the stretch. Then last time he never gave up when just missing the place, battling on between horses behind a dominant winner. Both of those races came over wet tracks and he may be more comfortable on fast going. David Jacobson’s horses have been running well lately, and this one should be a fair price with the apprentice named to ride.

WIN: #1 Handsome Cat, at 4-1 or greater
USE: 8,9