by David Aragona
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Race 1: 6 - 4 - 7 - 2
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 3: 2 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 4: 2 - 1 - 4 - 7
Race 5: 2 - 6 - 7 - 5
Race 6: 1 - 4 - 2 - 6
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 2 - 3
Race 8: 7 - 8 - 3 - 2
RACE 4: SAFFRON GIRL (#2)
My My Michelle figures to go off as the slight favorite in this spot after running well going route distances in her first couple of starts. She only beat one runner home in her off-the-turf debut, but she finished up with good interest that day while earning a respectable speed figure. I think it’s fair to be a little disappointed in her second start, as one would have expected this Michelle Nevin charge to improve with that initial run under her belt. Bet down to 7-5 favoritism, My My Michelle stayed on mildly after a wide trip but was never a real threat to the winner, who had only beaten her by 1 1/2 lengths in her debut. She can win here, but the barn is going through a dry spell and others appear to have a bit more upside. I prefer the Linda Rice second-time starter Saffron Girl. Some may be deterred by the fact that she debuted for a tag first time out, but I don’t view that as a major negative for a New York-bred competing against open company. This filly wasn’t ever a threat to win that day but she did run in spots, showing some grit to regain her momentum after suddenly dropping back heading into the far turn. It was a typical effort for a Linda Rice firster, and such runners typically improve with a start under their belts. Rice is 17 for 47 (36%, $2.24 ROI) with second-time-starting maidens in dirt routes over the past 5 years. This filly is bred to have a bit more ability than she displayed first time out and she might actually be getting a bit of class relief this time as there doesn’t appear to be a rival of the caliber of last-out winner Vibrance in this lineup. The other runners to consider are a pair of first-time starters for these same two barns, Michelle Nevin and Linda Rice. Yet neither stable is known for having a horse cranked up to win her debut.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,7
RACE 6: SHOCK THERAPY (#1)
Playwright is the fairly obvious favorite based on his superior recent speed figures. However, he’s been relatively short prices in his last two starts at this level and he’s failed to get the job done. This runner’s lack of early speed can sometimes cause issues for him, as his late run tends to fall just short, evidenced by the 9 runner-up placements to go along with his 4 wins. That said, he still goes out for one of the most dangerous barns on the grounds and this is his best distance. I’m using him and certainly prefer him to main rival Bebe Banker. This gelding hasn’t yet shown the improvement that one might have expected since the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. He has yet to get back to his career-best effort from last September when he posted a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure at this level aided by a rail bias. His last performance is difficult to excuse, as he was supposed to get past a horse like High Command for third. That Ronald Breed-trained rival is far from impossible in this spot given his current form, but I want to look in a different direction for my top pick. Shock Therapy moves back into state-bred company after trying a variety of claiming and starter spots in recent months. Given his running style, he’s always at the mercy of the pace and he’s been compromised by slow early fractions a number of times over his past several races. He was caught behind very slow paces in both Saratoga appearances, and encountered an even more pronounced scenario at Belmont in October. He was simply overmatched in a tough spot going this distance last time, but he is well-spotted this time. He appears to be working well for the return and will surely offer better value than the likely favorite.
Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,6
Trifecta: 1,4 with 1,4 with 2,3,6,8
RACE 7: LEITONE (#6)
Sir Winston is the main attraction in this one-mile optional claiming event. He was rerouted to this seemingly easier target after was initially slated to participate in the Jazil Stakes won in the slop by Mr. Buff. Yet it’s unclear if things are going to work out as well for him here as they would have last weekend. Whereas the Jazil featured plenty of pace going a two-turn distance that would allow him to make use of his ample stamina, this one-turn test will force him to show more speed. Sir Winston was in very good form when he won the Belmont Stakes last year, having also put forth an excellent effort in the Peter Pan prior to that. However, it took a long series of races for him to reach that point and I’m not sure that his one turf prep at the Fair Grounds has been enough to put him where he needs to be. I’ll use him defensively and I’m rooting for him to continue progressing, but I think this is the day to play against him. The logical alternative is Musical America, who would be pretty formidable if merely repeating his last performance. After easily beating a softer allowance field at Laurel in his first start for Rob Atras, he immediately stepped up to face tougher company last time. Grumps Little Tots was the class of that field exiting a graded stakes placing, yet Musical America ran right past him on the far turn and widened in the stretch going today’s distance. That 120 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest last-out number in the field one of the highest earned by anyone in this race. I’m using him prominently, but my top pick is Leitone. It’s curious that Jason Servis has entered him here on short rest, since it’s not a typical move for this barn. In fact, Servis just 2 for 6 (33%, $2.15 ROI) on 1 to 7 days’ rest over the past 5 years, indicating how infrequently he does this. Leitone was put into the difficult position of chasing Mr. Buff through swift early fractions that day and understandably faded in the lane. It’s possible that he didn’t care for the wet track, as he’s never run well on such a surface before. The fact that Servis is turning him around so quickly probably indicates that the race didn’t take much out of him. He’s been more brilliant is his one-turn races, so I like him getting back to a mile. Furthermore, he figures to play out as the clear speed this time unless Brass Compass is sent on a mission. That 124 TimeformUS Speed Figure that he earned at Belmont three back is the highest in this field and it’s not as if he’s run that much worse in two subsequent starts. In my opinion, he’s the horse to beat and he’s unlikely to be favored.
Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,7