by David Aragona
 

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PICKS

 
Race 1:   3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 2:   5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3:   7 - 4 - 3 - 5
Race 4:   4 - 1 - 7 - 2
Race 5:   3 - 6 - 5 - 1
Race 6:   2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 7:   6 - 5 - 7 - 2
Race 8:   3 - 7 - 8 - 4

TOP PLAYS

 
RACE 1: FANCY THAT (#3)
The two fillies likely to attract the most attention are She’ll Do and Paynterbynumbers. The former collected runner-up results from two starts at Delaware last year, both at sprint distances. After earning respectable speed figures in both of those efforts, she is now making her first start following a private purchase and transfer to the barn of Todd Pletcher. The stretch-out in distance is a significant hurdle, but she is bred to handle it given that her dam is a full sister to Kentucky Oaks and Alabama winner Proud Spell. Main rival Paynterbynumbers earned a similar speed figure in her recent debut effort going seven furlongs over this track. Heavily supported in the wagering, she didn’t quite perform to that backing, fading in the late stages after chasing the pace. Some greenness was on display throughout her performance, and she figures to give a better account of herself if she runs a more professional race this time. Her pedigree isn’t the most convincing for the distance, but she only has to stretch out an extra furlong. I’m using her prominently, but my top pick is another second-time starter. Fancy That debuted at Saratoga in September, finishing a nonthreatening fifth behind the regally bred Graceful Princess. While she never really picked it up that day, I thought she stayed on well in a moderately paced race that did not favor closers. She’s been given plenty of time to mature since that first outing, and she returns in a seemingly softer spot. While Kiaran McLaughlin’s overall numbers are mediocre with dirt stretch-outs among his second-timestarting maidens, within that sample he does exceptionally well at Aqueduct (5 for 18, $2.96 ROI). Fancy That is certainly bred to handle the added ground as a daughter of two-time graded stakes-winning miler Sara Louise and as a full sister to graded stakes-placed router Sara Street.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5 with ALL
 

RACE 2: PULSATE (#5)
Spun to Run should be favored among this group of maidens after falling just a half-length short in a tougher spot on Dec. 15. The winner, Haikal, rallied impressively from off the pace and possesses real talent, so Spun to Run did well to outrun his 35-1 odds in finishing third. Unfortunately, he’s going to be a much shorter price this time as he attempts to prove that his last effort was no fluke. While I think he’s talented enough to win, he must prove that he can successfully compete over a fast track, and the stretch-out to seven furlongs doesn’t necessarily help him. I’m more interested in a few of the locally based runners. Jake Rocks makes plenty of sense after his strong showing behind the promising duo of Mihos and Mutakaamil in late November. This Robert Barbara colt took a significant step forward that day, blasting off to the front before being overtaken by those two aforementioned colts in the stretch. His 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is tied for the highest in the field, matched only by the number Pulsate received last time out. While it might seem odd that a horse who lost by 11 lengths has the highest speed figure in the field, that’s largely due to the fact that he’s exiting an incredibly tough race. That Dec. 1 maiden heat came up very fast, which is no great surprise given the apparent talent of the field. Pulsate actually ran better than his margin of defeat would indicate that day, as he was shuffled back on the inside coming around the far turn after flashing early speed. It’s possible that the rail was not the place to be that day, especially early on, so Pulsate did well to stay on in the stretch after losing his momentum. I don’t mind the slight turnback, and he figures to be a square price.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,4,6
 

RACE 3: CAITRIONA (#7)
As expected, morning line favorite Solitary Gem was scratched to run on Sunday instead. Favoritism may now shift to Diamond Jen Brady, but she is an even more problematic contender. Her recent form has been abysmal, but perhaps another drop in class will wake her up. I’m using both of these fillies defensively, but I want to try to beat them with Finger Lakes shipper Caitriona. At first glance, she appears to be slower than the top contenders in this field. However, she ran well in her debut on dirt as a 2-year-old, and she’s actually performed slightly better than it appears in her recent starts. While she is generally prone to breaking slowly, her start two back was an exceptional disaster. She was slowly away and bumped, causing her rider to lose his irons in the opening furlong. Considering that early disadvantage, I’m willing to forgive an otherwise disappointing loss as the 3-5 favorite. She put it all together last time, winning off by over 7 lengths despite again breaking slowly. The 86 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance makes her a contender in this spot. Another poor break is definitely a concern, but I’m hoping that her ideal outside draw will help to mitigate a potential disadvantage.

Win: 7
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 3,4,5
 

RACE 6: DUBLINTHEPLEASURE (#2)
This is one of those races where I’ve arrived at my selection through process of elimination, since I am loath to support almost all of the runners that are likely to attract support. Its All Relevent is indeed the horse to beat off two straight runaway victories. However, I have some misgivings about this runner. He needed 3 months to recover from his win back in September, and now he’s returning on much shorter rest while dropping in claiming price. Based on his last two speed figure, he should be moving up the class ladder, yet his connections are displaying little confidence. He does his best running when placed on or near the lead, but there is other speed in this field. Outplay is likely to be sent to the front, and even Fifty has the speed to secure the lead. I’ll use Its All Relevant defensively, but I think he’s a short price that is worth trying to beat. The obvious alternative, especially given the pace scenario, is Shalako. However, he’s even less reliable than the favorite as he drops hastily in for a low-level tag off a long layoff. The good Shalako can beat Its All Relevant, but I have little faith that we’ll see a strong effort out of him. Therefore, I’m taking a shot with Dublinthepleasure. This Jeremiah Englehart trainee will need a couple of others to underperform in order to win, but that appears to be a distinct possibility. While his two recent wins came at Finger Lakes, he actually beat decent fields in those races and he sports prior NYRA form to back up those speed figures. I’m not overly concerned about his poor effort last time since he was meeting an unusually tough field for that N2X level. Now he drops to a more appropriate class level and he gets back on a fast track for the first time in months. He figures to work out the right trip from off the pace, and I find him more reliable than all of the runners that will be shorter prices.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6
 

RACE 7: SINGAPORE TRADER (#6)
Gio d’Oro is the horse to beat off his two solid efforts since returning from the layoff this past fall. He hinted at having improved with maturity in his performance on turf two back, and he confirmed that last time, leading all the way before getting passed by the classy Testosterstone in the late stages. While he is clearly among the most naturally talented runners in this race, he does have a few additional hurdles to clear this time. He obviously prefers a wet dirt surface, so he must prove that he is as proficient over fast going. Furthermore, it’s unclear if the stretch-out around two turns will work in his favor, whereas some others are already proven at this distance. One of his main rivals is Storm Prophet, who cleared this level more than a year ago. He’s been facing tougher open-allowance foes ever since, with mixed results. I generally do not like Linda Rice dropdowns, and this horse is coming off his worst effort of the season. I would rather support a runner in good form, so I’m taking a shot with Singapore Trader. I realize that he’s been defeating softer fields than his two main rivals in recent starts, but I like the way he’s coming into this race. He was a game winner two back, albeit with a perfect trip, and he ran an improved speed figure when trouncing overmatched foes last time. What could give him the edge here is the stretch-out to nine furlongs since I believe he’s better suited to handle the distance than the aforementioned pair. He ran one of the best races of his career in the Albany going this trip, and he’s arguably improved since then. With little speed signed on in this spot, he should sit a perfect trip stalking Gio d’Oro, and I believe he can outstay that rival.

Win: 6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 6 with 5,7 with 1,2,4,5,7