by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 5 - 6 - 3
Race 2: 5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 3: 8 - 6 - 5 - 4
Race 4: 7 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 5: 4 - 3 - 2 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 6 - 8 - 3
Race 7: 3 - 1 - 6 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 9 - 5 - 8
RACE 5: TAKE YOUR PLACE (#4)
The horse to beat is Felix in Fabula. Trainer Randi Persaud can be hard to trust at times, but he has gotten this 4-year-old colt into the best form of his career and has kept him there for two months. He was always going to have trouble negotiating the 1 1/8 miles last time, but now he cuts back to a much more appropriate sprint distance. If he delivers his typical solid effort, the rest of these may find him difficult to beat, especially after the scratch of likely favorite Monteleone. I want to take a shot him Take Your Place. This colt was no match for the favorite in his first start for the Toscano barn in December, but that race came over Monteleone’s preferred sloppy going when he was in top form. Since then, Take Your Place has subtly maintained solid form despite keeping much tougher company. He ran deceptively well on Jan. 27, as he was forced three to four wide over a track that was favoring rail runners throughout the day. Then last time, he had little chance racing against the likes of Sir Ballantine and Almithmaar in a very fast race for the level. The drop in class will suit him, and he should work out a good stalking trip.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,2
RACE 7: DIAMOND N SIMON (#3)
Elegant Zip is the filly to beat in this New York-bred allowance race as she drops in class following a steady diet of stakes races. While she’s failed to win since her maiden victory at Saratoga, she has nevertheless run quite well in a few difficult spots. Despite her pedigree suggesting that sprinting would be her specialty, she has run two of her best races going today’s one-mile trip. The slight layoff is of some concern since she missed one or two opportunities to run in races that would have suited her. Yet there’s no denying that it’s going to take improvement from the others to overtake her. Most of the logical alternatives are coming off maiden wins. The challenger who probably deserves the most respect is Countable since she defeated a legitimate foe when winning her second start last time. Wadadli Princess ran very well while finishing second and has since returned to win her maiden and run very well against stakes company. Any kind of forward move makes Countable dangerous, but I’m not totally convinced that the added ground will be to her liking. While Into Mischief is a versatile sire, her dam was a confirmed sprinter, and this filly strikes me as one who will prefer shorter distances. If I’m going to take a shot against Elegant Zip, I want to look for better value. Diamond N Simon is a longshot who intrigues me. She was facing a weaker group last time when finishing second going seven furlongs after shipping in from Parx. However, she ran extremely well within the context of that race. Feb. 9 was a day that featured a strong rail bias, and Diamond N Simon was one of the few runners on that card to overcome a wide trip. She might have even won that race had she not ducked in from greenness at the eighth pole. This is a step up in class, but her 94 TimeformUS Speed Figure stacks up very well against the favorite. Unlike some others in this field, Diamond N Simon figures to have no trouble handling the one-mile distance. I liked the way she drew off in her maiden score two back, and that race has come back stronger than the speed figure indicates.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,2,6,7
Trifecta: 1,3 with 1,3 with 2,6,7
RACE 8: H MAN (#4)
Summer Bourbon has competed at this level twice since being claimed by the potent combination of Rudy Rodriguez and Michael Dubb. While he’s run well in both of those starts, he’s failed to win. I can excuse his loss to subsequent stakes winner Bavaro in early December, but he was supposed to get the job done last time. He still earned a respectable speed figure that makes him good enough to beat this field, but I am just not thrilled with the idea of taking him at a short price. I prefer the likely second choice, H Man. I know it appears he didn’t improve much off the claim by Jason Servis last time, but I thought he ran well considering the circumstances. A mile is just too far for this horse, and he’s proven that in his last two races. He opened up with an impressive burst of speed at the quarter pole last time and just got tired in the final furlong. It’s a good sign that Servis moves him up to this notoriously tough New York-bred claiming level, and the turnback to six furlongs should do wonders for him. Furthermore, there is not much early speed in this field, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector is predicting that he will sit a good trip up close to a pace that will likely hold together. Looking beyond the favorites, Stretch’s Stone and Candid Desire merit consideration as they drop in class, but it’s hard to be thrilled with their recent performances.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 5,8,9