by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 6 - 3 - 1
Race 2: 4 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 3: 3 - 2 - 7 - 5
Race 4: 5 - 8 - 1 - 7
Race 5: 8 - 5 - 1 - 6
Race 6: 1 - 5 - 3 - 6
Race 7: 2 - 5 - 1 - 7
Race 8: 4 - 6 - 2 - 9
(Guide - FAIR VALUE: These are the odds at which I could reasonably bet each of the horses listed. The horses are ranked in order of preference corresponding to my picks, but wagering decisions should be based on the actual odds. The best value option will not necessarily be the top pick.)
RACE 1: CHESS SPECTACULAR (#5)
Systemic Change (#3) is obviously the horse to beat as he makes his third start off the layoff, and many horseplayers are likely to just concede this race to him. Yet I have some reservations about accepting a short price on this horse. He returned from the layoff in a Dec. 15 race that hasn’t proven to be quite as strong as the speed figure suggests. Then last time he was no match for his stablemate after contesting an honest pace. He may win here if he merely holds his form, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be as effective stretching out to 9 furlongs. One horse for whom distance shouldn’t be a concern is Rapper Zapper (#6). This fellow 4-year-old has had more experience than his main rival and has put forth his best efforts in two-turn dirt races. He ran well to finish just behind Afjan two back at Laurel, and that rival has since validated that form in New York. He figures to be charging late under Trevor McCarthy at what could be a fair price. However, my top pick may offer even better value. Chess Spectacular (#5) could get dismissed as the outsider in this 6-runner field. He looks light on speed figures, but he actually ran well in the second and third starts of his career facing solid maiden special weight fields. He made a strong move into a quick pace behind Rudder’s Men on Oct. 22. He faded late but didn’t finish that far behind Classic Legacy and Classic Catch, who have since done some nice things against winners. Then two back he was closing belatedly behind Sam F. Davis winner Litigate and Gotham runner-up Slip Mahoney. He obviously disappointed when dropped in for a tag last time, but he got a poor ride, buried inside early before getting shuffled out of position. I like progeny of Mastery going longer, and he could play out as the speed here. James Ryerson is 5 for 29 (17%, $2.06 ROI) first off the claim over 5 years.
Fair Value:
#5 CHESS SPECTACULAR, at 9-1 or greater
RACE 3: THERISASTORMBREWIN (#3)
Optic Way (#4) could go favored here as he makes his first start off the claim for Amira Chichackly. While this barn has had more success at this meet than at any time in the past, I still have some reservations about this horse wheeling back on short rest. He ran well with a perfect trip here last Saturday and now has to stretch out to 9 furlongs after tiring in the late stages of his recent races at a mile. If I’m going to take a horse out of that race I would rather it be Caerus (#2) at a better price. While this horse has primarily sprinted recently, he was finishing strongly going a mile last time and has handled two-turn routes in the past. He is in great form right now for Randi Persaud and had valid excuses for his poor results two and three back. He’s the one I would prefer among the logical contenders. Wild Banker (#7) also makes sense, but he figures to attract more wagering support. He was uncharacteristically dull when dropped down to this level last time, failing to mount an impactful rally. He did run better in his prior two starts for this barn and has handled 1 1/8 miles without issue. I am a little concerned that he seems to do his best work over wet tracks, but he’s still a contender. My top pick is another horse exiting that Feb. 10 race. Therisastormbrewin (#3) didn’t show up at all that day over a track that some horses just didn’t seem to be handling. That dull effort is a concern, but it’s a good sign that he’s coming back without a layoff or a further drop in class. Instead, he’s worked twice since then and is getting a switch to a much more aggressive rider. He’s a need-the-lead type, and has proven his ability to stay longer distances when he’s able to make the front. That obviously didn’t happen two and three back, but he may be able to rebound under a different scenario this time. He certainly has the prior races to beat this field if he can turn things around.
Fair Value:
#3 THERISASTORMBREWIN, at 7-1 or greater
#2 CAERUS, at 9-2 or greater
RACE 5: UPPER LEVEL (#8)
I’ll be interested to see how the pace develops in this conditioned claimer. It appears that multiple horses want the front end, but two of those come from the same barn. Tom Morley trainees Mauritius (#3) and Built to Last (#6) possess similar running styles, both doing their best work on the front end. It seems counterintuitive that both would be used aggressively to duel for the lead, so perhaps this pace won’t be quite as fast as it looks on paper. That could work against a horse like Necromancer (#1), who would fall into a great trip in four horses did battle for the lead. I’m just skeptical that scenario will transpire. The pace shouldn’t bother morning line favorite Jester’s Song (#5) too much, as he’s generally pretty versatile. Yet I have some doubts about this runner’s current form. He has faced much tougher fields in each of his last two starts, but he still didn’t do any running in those races. Now he returns from yet another layoff dropping down to a realistic level. I just wonder if he’s still capable of producing those speed figures he was earning in the middle of last year. I want to go in a different direction with Upper Level (#8). I think this horse is as likely to win as anyone else in this field and I doubt he attracts enough support to be favored. He’s been facing better fields at the starter allowance level and hasn’t run that badly in his recent starts despite the fact that he hasn’t been ridden that aggressively. This horse had the misfortune of facing off against the speedball Ikigai twice in a row, and it’s nearly impossible to outrun that rival to the front end. Last time Jose Gomez didn’t even try, experimenting with rating tactics. I expect the intention is to be more aggressive here with the switch to Jaime Torres. He’s drawn well on the outside and I think he’ll be tough to beat if he can reproduce either of his first two efforts after being claimed by Natalia Lynch.
Fair Value:
#8 UPPER LEVEL, at 7-2 or greater
RACE 6: ROYAL MEGHAN (#1)
I don’t deny that Dame Cinco (#5) is a contender in this $32k claimer, but she strikes me as one that will be a very short price and I don’t think she’s quite that likely to visit the winner’s circle. Her speed figures are strong, but they don’t make her some kind of standout. This is a drop in class out of some tougher spots, but she also got great trips in her recent races and in some cases took advantage of favorable circumstances. I don’t want to just concede the victory to her at a short price when I think there’s another viable contender in this field. Royal Meghan (#1) seems just as likely to win this race and she figures to be a more appealing price. This mare won at this level three back with a strong speed figure. Since then, she stepped up to face a much tougher field two back, and failed to run her race in the fog. Then last time she was against a track that was favoring inside paths, racing 3 to 4-wide around the turn and into the lane. Now she’s drawn inside and I’m hoping to see Kendrick Carmouche give her a more aggressive rider, mimicking the successful tactics she used in October.
Fair Value:
#1 ROYAL MEGHAN, at 2-1 or greater
RACE 7: GOLDEN CODE (#2)
My interest in this race will depend on how it gets bet. If Bobby Bo (#7) does indeed take money off the layoff, getting bet down to around his 8-5 morning line, I’ll be happy to play against him. He does have some things working in his favor, as he showed ability as a 3-year-old and appears to own a significant pace advantage against this field. However, I’m never going to endorse horses like this. He didn’t just have a layoff – he had a setback so severe that he didn’t log a timed workout of any kind for 17 months after that 2021 Albany. I’m not convinced that he’s the same horse anymore, and even though I respect Michelle Nevin, I’m generally skeptical of horses being transferred out of the Bob Baffert stable. I want to find some alternatives and there are two that intrigue me. The short price of those is Golden Code (#2). I pegged him at 8-1 on the morning line, but I could see him attracting more support than that. This horse showed real talent as a 3-year-old when finishing third at a big price in the Gotham. That performance lives on an island, and he certainly didn’t run as well when he returned from a layoff last time. Yet perhaps he’s just a runner who needs more distance to shine, and he’s getting a rider upgrade to Kendrick Carmouche this time. I could support him if the price is fair. I’m also interested in Son of an Ex (#5). The lack of pace in this field could work against him, but his recent form isn’t as poor as it seems. He had little chance to close last time, as he just got too far back in the early stages. He ran better at this level two back, overcoming a slow pace to get up for third. That effort shows that he still has some ability, but he does need some things to break in his favor if he’s to have a shot at winning. That said, he’ll be by far the most generous price of those that I consider to be contenders.
Fair Value:
#2 GOLDEN CODE, at 4-1 or greater
#5 SON OF AN EX, at 12-1 or greater
RACE 8: RAW COURAGE (#4)
Many will simply concede this race to Super Quality (#9), if he runs here. He would have been entered in this spot shortly after he crossed the wire first in that maiden race last Sunday, so his connections didn’t exactly have much time to assess his condition following that win. If he does participate on 5 days’ rest, he’s likely to go favored based on that 80 Beyer and 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last week. Yet the track may have been working in his favor and he beat a very weak field. This horse can be a little faint-hearted when he gets pressure, and there is some other speed signed on here. He may be the most likely winner, but I don’t think his price will be commensurate with his chances of winning. The Cobbler (#2) seems like a viable alternative as he drops back down to a more realistic level. I do have some concerns about whether he can hold his form for the new barn, as we didn’t get too many clues about that last time. Yet his prior form makes him logical and his price will be inflated due to the connections. There are also a couple of other big prices that are worth considering. He’sgottashortfuse (#6) can be inconsistent, but he did run a race on Dec. 31 that would make him competitive here, closing for second at this level. He took back off the pace to make one run that day, and I’m thinking he’ll try similar tactics here with the rider switch to Trevor McCarthy. My top pick, highlighted purely from a value standpoint, is Raw Courage (#4). He’s hardly the most likely winner of this race, but I think he has more talent than the printed form indicates. He ran well three back when fading to fourth after chasing the swift Fenway around the track. He then stumbled and got a tentative ride from the 10-pound bug two back before get run off his feet in a speed-dominated race last time. This horse showed some talent here last winter, running speed figures that would make him competitive against this field. Now he’s getting a rider upgrade to Jamie Torres, and I see some subtle signs, in his races and workouts, that he might be turning things back around.
Fair Value:
#4 RAW COURAGE, at 14-1 or greater
#6 HE'SGOTTASHORTFUSE, at 10-1 or greater