PICKS

Race 1:   3 - 4 - 1 - 2
Race 2:   6 - 2 - 4 - 5
Race 3:   7 - 10 - 9 - 6
Race 4:   7 - 3 - 1 - 6
Race 5:   9 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 6:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 7:   1 - 3 - 7 - 5
Race 8:   8 - 4 - 2 - 13

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses to consider for vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 3: SIR WILLIAM (#7)
This New York-bred maiden claimer is probably the most interesting race of the day, which says more about the overall lack of intrigue throughout the rest of the card than anything else. With the scratch of Salute to America, #6 Wild Carp Diem could inherit the favorite's role. He sports some decent form at this level, but he’s never raced beyond 6 furlongs and all of his dirt starts have come over sloppy, sealed tracks. I’m a little skeptical of both at short prices. A viable alternative appears to be #9 Reservation. If you’re a fan of gallop-outs, this horse may be for you. He lagged well behind the field in the early going of his debut, but he really picked up the bit in the last furlong and was finishing best of all before galloping out past the leaders after the wire. My issue is that he ran that race over a sloppy track, and he has a bit of a turf action as well as a turf pedigree on the dam’s side. And Rudy Rodriguez is just 2 for 26 (8%, $0.41 ROI) with maiden second time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years. I think there are a couple of bigger prices to consider. The logical one is #7 Sir William. Some may underestimate this 4-year-old due to having had more chances than others, but I see nothing wrong with his recent form. He’s run faster than most of the 3-year-olds who will attract attention, and he’s exiting a race at this level that was much tougher than the one he tackles here. The horses that completed the trifecta in that last race would all be heavy favorites in here, and Sir William was hardly disgraced finishing fourth behind them. This strapping son of Midnight Lute has slowly been rounding into form and he projects to get a good trip stalking the two speedy favorites. At an even bigger price, I also want to highlight longshot #10 Uncle Water Flow. This horse was uncompetitive on turf, but his one dirt start last time is worth a viewing. He stumbled badly a few strides after the start and then went on a Magical Mystery Tour. He went 6-wide into the turn, and raced greenly while drifting all the way down to the rail in the stretch. I don’t love the fact that he’s been off since then, nor that the same rider is aboard him. However, he’s getting significant class relief and may have more to offer if he can run straight.

WIN: #7 Sir William, at 7-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #10 Uncle Water Flow, at 12-1 or greater

RACE 5: BAVARIAN CREME (#9)
The horse to beat might be #1 Laochi, who breaks from the rail. The biggest knock against her is that she's already had plenty of chances to break through at this level, and has been short prices in each of her last two starts. However, she was against rail biases on both occasions, and her prior form is superior to that of most rivals in this field. My issue is that she has a tendency to break slowly, which could be problematic as she leaves from an inside post. I prefer her main rival #9 Bavarian Creme. This 4-year-old ran deceptively well in her career debut on Jan. 13. That day featured a strong rail bias early in the card, and she was chasing outside the entire way, going 3-wide on the turn before proceeding in the 2-path through the stretch. She did fade in the late stages, but so did most horses who chased outside in the surrounding races. She was clearly well intentioned that day and she should be highly competitive here if able to reproduce that form over a fair surface. I don’t love that she was a vet scratch when entered back on Feb. 11, but she’s worked well wince then and just seems very logical. #7 Winter Siren is interesting as she debuts for Charlton Baker. There’s really no pedigree to highlight, but the barn is in the midst of a fantastic meet, and it's a good sign that leading rider Dylan Davis takes the mount. A horse that I would try to get into the mix somewhere, primarily in exotics, is #3 Vivazano. She’s had her fair share of chances after showing some promise at the start of her career. That said, she was compromised by a speed bias on Jan. 2 when getting a pretty tentative ride. Then last time she was incomprehensibly rated to the back of the pack after breaking well. She finally gets a rider upgrade to Jose Gomez, who should be able to make better use of her early speed. Yet it’s unclear if she has a winning effort in her, while others have more upside. Upgrade her if the price is right.

WIN: #9 Bavarian Creme, at 8-5 or greater
UPGRADE: #3 Vivazano, at 9-1 or greater