PICKS

Race 1:   6 - 9 - 7 - 1
Race 2:   7 - 1 - 4
Race 3:   5 - 1A - 2 - 3
Race 4:   3 - 8 - 2 - 4
Race 5:   5 - 2 - 4 - 3
Race 6:   2 - 3 - 6 - 4
Race 7:   3 - 6 - 1A
Race 8:   5 - 7 - 9 - 4

PLAYS

RACE 5: DUST DEVIL (#5)
Though the three-horse entry was listed at even-money on the morning line, the one who figured to shoulder most of that support was Advance Notice, and he has been scratched. Grit and Glory may now inherit the favorite's role, but his last victory is dressed up by riding that Feb. 21 gold rail all the way. That $12.5k claimer was relatively strong for the level, but he would have to do better to compete against the aforementioned pair. His form prior to that sudden improvement last time merely makes him a fringe player in this race, and I'm not confident that he can repeat that recent effort against a tougher field. I prefer Dust Devil. This horse finshed nearly 4 lengths behind Advance Notice last time, but he was about 4-wide every step of the way while rating off the pace in the early going. He made decent progress passing the quarter pole, but just couldn’t sustain his run over that somewhat biased racetrack. Dust Devil showed that he was capable of running well enough to merit a chance at this level two back when he easily defeated $40k conditioned claimers going this distance in an impressive performance. He’s clearly maintained strong form since the claim by Mertkan Kantarmaci, though he will have to hope for a more favorable pace setup since there really is no speed left in this field after scratches.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,4

RACE 6: AIR ATTACK (#2)
The 7-year-old Control Group loves to win races, having crossed the wire first in over a third of his 42 lifetime starts. He will attempt to make it two in a row after just getting up to win by a nose when last seen on Feb. 15. He got a great trip in that spot, stalking on the rail on a day that featured an inside bias, before angling out to rally in the two-path through the lane. While he’s content to rate, he also possesses tactical speed that could come into play in this largely paceless affair. He’s a 7-time winner at this 1 1/8 miles distance and has run plenty of races at or around this class level that make him the horse to beat. I’m using him, but I do have some questions about his overall form at a short price. Another horse who could benefit from a slow early pace is Kumar. This runner’s last few performances have been lackluster, but they have all come against significantly tougher company. He had little chance last time against the likes of Family Biz and Limonite, and prior to that he was over his head at the N2X optional claiming level. He’s capable of competing in cheaper races like this when he’s at his best, though it is fair to question whether 9 furlongs is pushing him past his limit. He’ll be a much better price than Control Group, so he’s worth including. Yet my top pick is Air Attack. This horse ran well at the same level and distance two back, engaging in a protracted duel with eventual winner Super Dude before fading to second. While it might appear that he regressed last time, he was wide against a rail bias that day and actually did well to make a premature move on the far turn prior to fading. Now he makes his first start off the claim for Rob Atras, who is 9 for 29 (31%, $2.30 ROI) first off the claim in dirt routes over the past 5 years. Air Attack should relish stretching back out to two turns, and showed two back that he has the tactical speed to work out the right trip in this field.

Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6
Trifecta: 2 with 3,6 with 1,3,4,6

RACE 8: VIVE LA LIBERTY (#5)
In a race lacking any reliable form, it doesn’t take much to elevate a horse to the status of a contender. Perhaps She’s an Alpha could be considered the horse to beat based on her pair of runner-up finishes at Tampa Bay Downs from last year. Admittedly one of those occurred over a year ago and she was facing a very weak field in that Dec. 24 affair. Yet I am willing to give her a pass for her poor performance in her NYRA debut last time. Surprisingly bet down to favoritism, she got the wrong trip, chasing wide against a rail bias before fading. It’s unclear if the mile distance also got to her, but she probably does deserve another chance. Those with experience going route distances just aren’t particularly appealing, so I’m leaning towards some of the sprinters stretching out. Vive La Liberty would make a lot of sense in here if she were exiting her performance two back when she finished a solid second a this level. However, she disappointed as the favorite last time going that same distance. Yet I think her trip was the culprit in her regression, as she was racing very wide against a rail bias every step of the way. That Feb. 14 effort was better than it seems, as was her performance back on Nov. 12 when she got carried off the course at the start. Her overall form is stronger than it appears, and she has a right to handle the added ground as a daughter of Bellamy Road.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,4,7,9