by David Aragona
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Race 1: 2 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 2: 2 - 1 - 3 - 5
Race 3: 13 - 2 - 8 - 5
Race 4: 3 - 5 - 2 - 1
Race 5: 3 - 7 - 2 - 4
Race 6: 5 - 4 - 3 - 2
Race 7: 6 - 5 - 4 - 3
Race 8: 8 - 3 - 2 - 6
Race 9: 5 - 13 - 12 - 9
RACE 2: SHAMROCK KID (#2)
Shamrock Kid seems like the horse to beat after the scratch of Control Group, and I'm not taking a strong stand against him. He makes his first start off the claim for Orlando Noda, who is 2 for 20 (10%, $0.88 ROI) with that move. However, this barn has done well with new acquisitions more generally. The drop down to this level last time woke him up, as he got back into form while finishing in a photo with Control Group. He came up empty in the late stages, but he did have to go 4 wide all the way around the far turn, losing valuable ground. He figures to be formidable right back at this level if he maintains his current form and gets some pace to close into. He’s my top pick, but the scratches do change the complexion of this race. Much of the speed has come out, which should make runners like Singapore Trader and Three to Thirteen far more dangerous. The former is fairly inconsistent, but he did run his best recent race over a wet track, so today's conditions may boost his chances. The same goes for Three to Thirteen, who defeated a cheaper field of $10,000 claimers last time, but has back form to make him tough here if he can recapture it.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 2 with 1,3 with 1,3,4,5
RACE 3: MOLLY’S NIGHTHAWK (#13)
It’s difficult to find the center of this race, or try to venture a guess as to who may be favored by the public. Masons Friend will take money, but she’s exiting a woefully weak maiden special weight event in which she did no running at all. Gary Gullo is not known for improving second time starters, and it remains to be seen if she has enough ability to win on this circuit. Of the second-time starters, I’d be just as interested in Whispering Rose, who gets an intriguing trainer switch to Horacio DePaz. She showed absolutely nothing in her turf debut, but that came against much tougher and she is a daughter of solid dirt influence Afleet Alex. Even Mizzen the Mark has to be considered strongly after rallying for second first time out, even though she exits a slow race. I'm using them all, but I want to search for better value. Molly’s Nighthawk has had more chances than most, but she arguably ran the best last race of anyone in this field. She stumbled badly at the start of that Jan. 20 race, putting her well behind the field in the early going. Yet she steadily advanced despite racing wide on the turn and finished evenly to split the field while earning a respectable – relatively speaking – speed figure. Her other dirt performances aren’t quite so inspiring, but it is worth pointing out that she’s never routed on dirt. She’s clearly better going longer on the turf, so perhaps the added distance will work in her favor.
Win/Place: 13
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 1,2,5,6,8
RACE 5: FROZEN ACCOUNT (#3)
Whichwaytomalibu chased home gate-to-wire winner Jerry the Nipper last time while never really a threat. He was perhaps carried along by the track, as Feb. 22 was a day that appeared to favor forwardly placed runners. He is bred to be more of a sprint type, but he handled a mile well enough last time. He may have an easier time of it on the front end here, since he’s one of the few major contenders that possesses any real speed. Others do have more upside, but he’s the one to beat and the one to catch. Beg to Differ closed steadily from far back to get up for third last time, but did so with the help of a fast and contested early pace. Nevertheless, that was his first start in 3 months, so he has a right to improve second off the layoff. That 87 TimeformUS Speed Figure puts him right in line with the other major players and he arguably has more room for improvement in just his second dirt start. He just needs to show a bit more tactical speed since there doesn’t appear to be much pace signed on this time. I’m interested in some of the second-time starters, the most intriguing of which may be Frozen Account. This colt broke with the field last time and initially tried to show speed before getting steadied out of position. That caused him to become extremely green, as he lost contact with the field leaving the backstretch. He eventually regained his stride and put in a strong stretch run while never threatening the winner. Runner-up Jerry the Nipper returned to win next time out with a 100 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Frozen Account now goes out for Kelly Breen for the first time, and this barn does well off trainer switches. I would also use Liquor, who steadily made up ground while racing wide in his debut. He gets a rider upgrade for James Ferraro and is bred to relish added ground as a son of Tonalist. Signified also figures to improve out of that same race. He got a good education encountering traffic at a couple of points. Pletcher is also 41 for 125 (33%, $2.20 ROI) with maiden second-time starters going from sprints to routes on dirt over 5 years.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,7 with 2,4,5,6,7
RACE 7: HAN SENSE (#6)
Payne and Musical America should vie for favoritism. The former is stepping up in class after defeating a solid optional claiming field in his first start going as far as a mile. He seemed to relish the added ground, finishing with great energy after stalking a moderate pace. He’s been off for about three months since then, but he’s been in training for much of that time and will be formidable if he returns in the same form. Musical America lost as the favorite last time, but he was hardly disgraced in finishing second to Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston. This horse has run well in all three starts for the Rob Atras barn and obviously specializes as this one-mile distance. Both he and Payne have similar stalking running styles, so they figure to chasing the speedy Han Sense in the early going. This grey 6-year-old comes off a disappointing effort at Laurel, where he lost as the 6-5 favorite. It’s hard to find a valid excuse for that performance, but he did run an excellent race just prior to that over this Aqueduct surface. He chased a fast pace in the Queens County and did well to hang on for third in a race that was falling apart late. While he’s spent the majority of the past year contesting two-turn races beyond a mile, I think he may appreciate this turnback to a one-turn mile configuration. His early speed should play well this time and he’s the only horse in this field who has earned prior speed figures which suggest he’s good enough to defeat both favorites.
Win: 6
Exacta: 6 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with ALL
RACE 8: HONOR WAY (#8)
The Pace Projector isn’t predicting a fast pace, but there is plenty of speed signed on here. Any race that features the run-off filly Forgotten Hero is likely to produce an honest early tempo, and fellow front-runner Honey I’m Good should help to ensure that. Honey I’m Good is probably the horse to beat after just missing at this level last time when finishing between Bridlewood Cat and Piedi Bianchi, two of the major players in the Correction on Saturday. While she’s been effective from a stalking position on turf, she may be put in an uncomfortable position this time. Hay Field seems like a logical alternative given her stalking running style. She wasn’t quite good enough in the Broadway last time when facing the in-form Kept True, but she did hold her form reasonably well off the claim for new trainer Antonio Arriaga. She figures to be in the mix here with a similar effort, and that seems likely since she’s among the most consistent runners in the field. I’m using her prominently, but I’m intrigued by the pair that Charlton Baker has entered. Bluegrass Jamboree finished behind Hay Field last time in a somewhat disappointing effort. However, she was compromised by a slow pace, something she’s had to deal with in a number of her recent starts. She has a right to do better here if they go quickly up front, but so does her uncoupled stablemate Honor Way. This mare’s recent form appears to have tailed off, but you can make some excuses for her. She’s not a miler, so she was never going to make much of an impact last time. Prior to that she was overmatched in the Interborough. Yet her form from late 2019 actually gives her a solid chance here and she figures to appreciate this turnback to 6 furlongs. She could be the one that offers the best value.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,6
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,5,6