by David Aragona
For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.
Race 1: 4 - 3 - 1 - 5
Race 2: 3 - 1 - 4 - 5
Race 3: 2 - 3 - 4 - 1
Race 4: 8 - 3 - 7 - 1
Race 5: 5 - 1 - 2 - 8
Race 6: 10 - 5 - 4 - 7
Race 7: 2 - 6 - 3 - 7
Race 8: 3 - 2 - 5 - 7
Race 9: 2 - 10 - 8 - 11
RACE 3: TOO MANY TALES (#2)
Awillaway is likely to go off as the favorite in this spot after collecting a pair of minor awards from her first three career starts. She’s stepping up to face older horses for the first time after meeting straight three-year-olds in her prior starts, but it’s not as if any of those older rivals have run considerably faster. Awillaway’s only disappointing performance came when she was forced to race wide against a strong rail bias on Feb. 3. While she may win this race if she repeats her last TimeformUS Speed Figure of 78, earned on Feb. 23, there are other rivals in this field who have run comparable numbers. Awillaway earned a 90 figure in her debut back in January, but that number is of questionable predictive value, in my opinion. I’m not way against her, but I think there are some viable alternatives at better prices. One of those is It’s My Catiecat, who ran competitive speed figures as a 2-year-old, but has only made one career start in the past year. She didn’t run particularly well in that Jan. 25 return, but she was somewhat against the track while racing on a dead rail throughout. She may do better here, but I don’t fully trust that she can still race competitively. I’m taking a shot against these runners with Too Many Tales. At first glance, she looks too slow and cheap to compete against the likes of Awillaway and probable second choice Anne’s Song. However, Too Many Tales appears to be heading in the right direction in a race where others cannot necessarily be expected to improve further. This filly has taken a step forward with each career start. She had absolutely no speed in her debut when closing in a slow race at the bottom level. Moved up in class next time, she displayed considerable improvement to lose by less than 3 lengths against a solid field for the level. Then last time, I thought she improved yet again, as she was far more aggressive in the early stages and was right in contention until the eighth pole. Another minor step forward should put her right on par with the favorites. I don’t think there’s a huge disparity in quality between the $50,000 field she faced and the maiden special weight fields that Awillaway exits, so this rise in class may not be as drastic as it seems. Furthermore, with the apprentice allowance she is getting 14 pounds from some of the shorter priced older runners.
Win: 2
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,3,4,6
RACE 4: ALPHADORA (#8)
Given the wide-open nature of the race, perhaps it’s unwise to default to a potential favorite. Yet I nevertheless have trouble getting past Alphadora as the most likely winner, and I believe she is the right horse to take as long as her price does not dip too low. She did not garner much respect at the windows in her first two career starts, but she actually ran quite well on both occasions. Her debut was deceptively strong, as she was forced to endure a wide trip over a rail-biased surface for the first two-thirds of the race before angling inside late. Then last time I thought she ran in spots as she showed improved early speed, yet seemed to lose focus on the turn before coming again in deep stretch to nearly get up for the victory. Given that uneven performance, she may benefit from the addition of blinkers this time. Furthermore, I don’t mind the stretch-out in distance given her pedigree and the fact that she may be able to control the pace of this race if she again shows the early speed we saw last time. This filly would likely be odds of 2-1 or lower if sent out by a top barn, but she figures to be only a lukewarm choice due to the low-profile connections. I’m not trying to beat her, but I will use some others. Becca Takes Charge is a logical alternative after running second while wide against a bias last time. That was a slow race, but she has a right to improve. Today Comes Once has not run quite as well as Alphadora in two common races, but she may appreciate the stretch-out.
Win: 8
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 1,3,7
RACE 8: CARTHON (#3)
Vincento has to be considered the horse to beat after racing competitively against open N1X allowance foes in January. Yet when Rudy Rodriguez dropped him back down to the New York-bred $40,000 optional-claiming level off that encouraging performance, Vincento failed to attract the interest of the public at curiously inflated odds and finished an uninspiring third. This gelding was claimed out of that race by Linda Rice, who keeps him at the same level in his first start for the new barn. Rice has very good numbers off the claim in this situation so this horse obviously merits respect. Main rival Blugrascat’s Smile actually finished ahead of Vincento when they met on Jan. 26, and there’s little doubt the Charlton Baker trainee ran the superior race after chasing wide throughout. Blugrascat’s Smile is in very good form right now, but he’s finished second in three consecutive starts and is beginning to pile up the minor awards. I’m using him prominently, but he’s not the most appealing win proposition. I could say the same thing about Uncle Sigh, who had been in very good form throughout 2018, but has never been the most reliable win candidate. While his form has not deteriorated as drastically as some might assume, he will have to run better than his recent performance in late February when he had no excuse to miss third. I’m taking a shot against these horses with the likely speed Carthon. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be clearly in front in the early stages in a situation that is forecast to favor horses on or near the lead. Carthon showed how dangerous he can be when given an aggressive ride on Dec. 20, as he chased an honest pace and drew off impressively going today’s distance. I wasn’t thrilled with his loss to the two aforementioned runners on Jan. 26, but I thought he came back with a deceptively strong effort last time at 1 1/8 miles. He set some taxing opening fractions, outdueling a rival who eventually finished last, before battling on gamely to be third. Eric Cancel has been riding him well and this gelding should be difficult to reel in if he flashes that same speed over the flat mile.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,5,7
Trifecta: 3 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,5,6,7