by David Aragona
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Race 1: 5 - 2 - 1 - 3
Race 2: 4 - 2 - 6 - 1
Race 3: 4 - 5 - 2 - 6
Race 4: 5 - 1/1A - 3
Race 5: 5 - 2 - 4 - 1
Race 6: 2 - 6 - 9 - 1
Race 7: 3 - 4 - 6 - 1
Race 8: 5 - 7 - 3 - 6
Race 9: 1 - 2 - 6 - 4
RACE 3: PECULIAR SENSATION (#4)
Class droppers Blame Us All and Joy Drive figure to vie for favoritism in this well-matched field. The former is making his second start off the claim for trainer Robertino Diodoro after fading at the end of a one-mile event against tougher company. That run came just six days ago, and now he drops back down to a level at which he was competitive two back. Joy Drive is a tougher read as he takes a significant drop after performing poorly here last month. He hasn’t been able to recapture his best form since returning from a layoff last year, and Linda Rice has poor numbers with these types of drastic dropdowns at NYRA. I want to find an alternative, so I’m taking a shot with Peculiar Sensation, who should be around the third or fourth choice in the wagering. This gelding possesses good tactical speed, which should be an asset in a race where the Pace Projector is predicting a scenario that favors front-runners. He’s run well in both starts since being claimed by John Toscano. Two back, he finished a nose ahead of fellow speed type Delta Outlaw, who returned to run well in subsequent starts, and last time he can be forgiven for failing to handle a mile while returning on just six days’ rest. Now he’s back at the right distance and he stays at this appropriate class level.
Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,5,6
RACE 5: BLUE BELT (#5)
Square Shooter is a wild card in this race as he ships up from Florida for Jeremiah Englehart. His most recent effort was quite good, as he ran a competitive speed figure and finished just a half-length behind the winner, who has since gone on to do some nice things. However, this horse hasn’t been seen for nearly three months since then, and he now returns as a new gelding with blinkers added. He appears to have ability, but there are obviously questions surrounding him. Another interesting runner in this race is Have Another, who makes his first start off the claim by Brad Cox. He had shown real ability running in maiden races last winter at Aqueduct, but was surprisingly dangled for a $40,000 tag upon returning last month. This is surely a positive trainer switch, but Have Another is a one-dimensional stretch runner who may not get a favorable early setup in this spot with little speed signed on. For that reason, I prefer one of the more tactical runners, Blue Belt. This gelding clearly possesses plenty of early speed, and I like that he’s getting a significant trainer upgrade to Rudy Rodriguez for this race. Blue Belt ran well early in his career before getting somewhat lost through a series of surface switches and minor layoffs. His recent form is better than it seems, as he got used up chasing a fast pace two back and then was unwisely restrained and discouraged in the early going last time. Manny Franco just needs to send him into a clear stalking position today, because I believe he’s talented enough to hold off closers like Have Another and Benevolence on his best day.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6
RACE 7: OSTROLENKA (#3)
Angry Moon is clearly the horse to beat. He appears to be faster than the other speeds in the early going, and you can be sure that Paco Lopez will take full advantage of that. While it’s been some time since his last win, it’s undeniable that he’s run very well in recent starts, losing only to Skyler’s Scramjet and Do Share, the first- and second-place finishers in last weekend’s Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap. That apparent class edge makes him awfully tough to beat, especially since many of the others just have too many questions to answer. Yet one horse among that group of challengers may be set to turn things around that day. Ostrolenka’s recent efforts have not been pretty, but I do think you can make some excuses for him. On Dec. 9 at Parx, he never got engaged in a race run during a driving snowstorm, and since then he’s only competed on muddy tracks, which he has detested throughout his career. That said, a horse of this quality is supposed to give some sign that he can still run at all in at least one of those efforts, and he did not. On the other hand, there are some signs that Ostrolenka may be heading in the right direction now. Why is David Jacobson, a trainer never afraid to abruptly shed the dead weight in his barn, running him back at the same level? Furthermore, why is he now giving go-to rider Dylan Davis the mount on Ostrolenka when his stablemate Wake Up In Malibu is seemingly in better form? Notably, Jacobson and Davis are 9 for 24 (38 percent, $4.10 ROI) when teaming up at this Aqueduct meet. Finally, Ostrolenka’s sub-49 second workout at Belmont 11 days ago grabs the attention because it’s uncharacteristically fast for Jacobson, who routinely puts his horses through very slow morning drills. With a fast track predicted for Friday, I think there are enough reasons to give him one more chance.
Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,6
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with ALL
RACE 8: ZABAIONE (#5)
Races like this one are fun for trip handicappers because the participants have faced each other on numerous occasions and traded decisions, so the differences between them are best discerned by examining those common races. The likely favorite is Taoiseach, who defeated two of today’s rivals last time when finished second at this level. He was a little wide throughout, but the track seemed fair that day. A repeat of that effort would make him a logical contender for top honors, but his late-closing style sometimes leaves him with too much ground to make up late. I prefer a pair of runners, Zabaione and Blugrascat’s Smile. The former finished behind Taoiseach last time, but I thought he had a less comfortable trip. After advancing into a track position on the rail down the backstretch, he found himself caught behind a tiring rival turning for home. He unwisely stayed inside for too long and only angled out when it was too late. Overall, he’s better than that effort and is one of a few horses that is well-suited to this two-turn distance. Blugrascat’s Smile is in slightly better form. He was wide against a mild rail bias last time on Jan. 18, but nevertheless ran on well to be third while finishing ahead of both Taoiseach and Zabaione. He had run reasonably well prior to that and is a very logical win candidate. I’ll key these two in the bulk of my wagers through this race.
Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 3,6,7,9
Trifecta: 5,7 with 5,7 with 3,6,9