PICKS

Race 1:   5 - 6 - 1 - 3
Race 2:   3 - 4 - 6 - 2
Race 3:   3 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 4:   2 - 6 - 1 - 4
Race 5:   3 - 4 - 5 - 7
Race 6:   5 - 3 - 6 - 1
Race 7:   7 - 2 - 5 - 1
Race 8:   5 - 4 - 6 - 7
Race 9:   7 - 5 - 4 - 2
Race 10:   4 - 2 - 3 - 8

PLAYS

(Guide - WIN: recommended win/key horse at fair odds; UPGRADE: value horses to consider for vertical/horizontal wagers; USE: runners to include in vertical exotic wagers with Win horse)

RACE 1: POINT PLEASANT (#5)

#6 Khuluq looked like a filly with potential when following home the talented A Mo Reay in the second start of her career. However, she failed to show any of that ability last time when fading to finish a dull fourth as the 2-5 choice. Confusingly Early Glow, who had finished 12 lengths behind her on Dec. 3, turned the tables to win that day. The main track at Aqueduct was extremely deep and tiring on Jan. 14, so perhaps Khuluq just didn’t care for the going. The Chad Brown barn has been nearly unstoppable at this meet, and she looks like the potential main speed. She deserves to be favored, but she has questions to answer. I’m not a big fan of #1 Oh Mrs. Maisel, who did finish ahead of Khuluq last time but has been consistently mediocre through her four career starts. Christophe Clement entered a pair of runners, of which #3 Culdee could attract more attention. However, I’m more interested in #5 Point Pleasant at what should be a bigger price. Though this filly was never seriously involved in her debut, she took money to get bet down to 5-1 as the second choice in the wagering. That was a pretty tough group for the level, as Spenderella returned to win the G3 Herecomesthebride with a 112 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Others have also come back to validate the speed figure. It’s unclear that Point Pleasant has much ability based on that lone performance, but turf may not be her preferred surface. Clement admitted in pre-race quotes that he may have started her on the wrong surface, since she had trained better on dirt. Her pedigree could really go either way, and it’s not as if she’d have to be a future star to make an impact against this uninspiring group.

WIN: #5 Point Pleasant, at 9-2 or greater

RACE 5: CHAYSENBRYN (#3)

#4 Amity Island is the horse to beat as she drops back down in class to face claimers after a series of races against tougher company. She actually did quite well after getting claimed by Horacio De Paz last year, winning a NY-bred allowance event in December. However, she was simply overmatched in her last two starts, one of which came against stakes company. This drop makes sense for a filly who had previously been effective at similar levels. That said, it is possible that her form is tailing off and the connections could have waited for a $40k claimer to get written. I prefer her main rival #3 Chaysenbryn. Her recent speed figures are obviously inferior to those of Amity Island, but I think her overall form is better than it looks. Since she did well here last winter, she’s raced in a pair of sprints, one of which came following a 7-month layoff. Both of those races featured extremely slow paces, so she had little chance to get involved. She finally landed in a more favorable spot last time, but she didn’t get an ideal trip. She appeared to get discouraged behind a wall of horses around the far turn and didn’t find a clear path until the three-sixteenths pole. She really took off in the late stages once she found daylight and was quickly closing in on today’s rival #5 Sweet Mission late. I prefer Chaysenbryn out of that race and think she can beat this field with another slight step forward.

WIN: #3 Chaysenbryn, at 2-1 or greater
USE: 4,5

RACE 7: LEELOO (#7)

#2 Bank On Anna could go favored here off her impressive 6-length maiden score in January. However, it must be noted that she benefited from a gold rail early in that race. She did drift well off the inside path in the stretch, but her advantage was already conveyed early in the race. I still think Bank On Anna is a talented filly, as she had arguably run the better race against today’s rival Thinking It Over in her career debut last year. She could play out as the controlling speed here and merits respect, though I don’t necessarily want her as the favorite. Her biggest rival appears to be #7 Leeloo, who earned this race’s top TimeformUS Speed Figure (92) when she broke her maiden last December. That victory was achieved in the slop, but I don’t think she’s necessarily some wet track lover. She had a legitimate excuse when she lost the Franklin Square as the favorite, since she was racing 3-wide against a strong rail bias – the same rail bias that benefited Bank On Anna earlier in the card. Leeloo can certainly bounce back in this spot and she’s drawn well outside of her main pace rivals. Ray Handal may send out the biggest threat to that pair. #5 Thinking It Over is far from impossible as she turns back in distance. However, she was somewhat fortunate in her debut, and then benefited from a rail bias in the Franklin Square. I was more interested in Handal's other runner Ribot's Valentine, but she has been scratched.

WIN: #7 Leeloo, at 5-2 or greater
USE: 2,5

RACE 9: BANKERS DAUGHTER (#7)

This race centers around a couple of 5-year-old mares who haven’t shown much affinity for winning races. The more notorious of those is #4 Snicket, who has compiled 9 second-place finishes to go along with her single victory in 19 career starts. She’s been in her fair share of races that she should have won and she just loves to settle for second. She never got the chance display her hanging talents as the 4-5 favorite last time, as she parted ways with Dylan Davis coming out of the gate. She’s landed in a tougher spot at the same level here, but she is once again the horse to beat. Yet I prefer her main rival #7 Bankers Daughter, who has shown some of the same tendencies to hang at times in her career. That said, I think Bankers Daughter at her best is a more naturally talented dirt sprinter than Snicket. She faced some decent fields at this level when she was in her prime during late 2020 and into the spring of 2021. The problem is that she’s been pulled up across the wire in two of her last three starts. Something clearly went wrong with her early last year, but the connections have given her plenty of time to recuperate. If she’s going to run well again, she’s likely to do so fresh, as she did last April. She shows a steady pattern of workouts for her return, indicating that there haven’t been too many hiccups getting her back on track. If she shows up, I think she’s supposed to beat this field. #2 Pretty Clever did have some trouble after the start of her last race, but she was also with the track bias, racing outside avoiding a dead rail. The more interesting alternative to the favorites might be #5 Big Al’s Gal. She’s had subtle excuses in recent starts, as she was on a dead rail three back on Dec. 19, and then was compromised by an awkward trip behind a slow pace last time. She has to break cleanly and improve slightly against this field, but Antonio Arriaga has strong stats second off the claim. She’s worth including at the right price.

WIN: #7 Bankers Daughter, at 5-2 or greater
UPGRADE: #5 Big Al's Gal, at 9-1 or greater

RACE 10: FAST N FEARIOUS (#4)

This race, first carded last Saturday, lost some major players upon getting redrawn as today’s finale. #2 Raw Courage and #3 He’s Got It now figure to vie for favoritism. Both are 3-year-olds dropping in class out of a series of maiden special weight tries. He’s Got It arguably has more upside in just his fourth career start, but I think Raw Courage has run the better races. This John Toscano trainee did well two back when nearly hanging on after surviving a fast pace. He subsequently lost by 20 lengths on Feb. 5, but that race was flattered when winner Golden Code came back to finish third in the Gotham. Raw Courage was also too close to a dead rail that day. I can’t make the same excuses for He’s Got It, who has gotten pretty good trips and just lacked late punch in his two dirt starts. They’re both usable, but my top pick is a first time starter. #4 Fast N Fearious is a 4-year-old making his belated debut for the $40k tag. Ray Handal doesn’t have a longstanding reputation for success with these types, but he is 6 for 22 (27%, $3.08 ROI) with first time starters in dirt sprints over the past 2 years. This Palace Malice gelding is a half-brother to some horses with ability, including multiple winner Gambler’s Fallacy. He had worked fast last summer before getting put away, and his recent series of drills hint at some ability. I’ve seen enough of the short-priced options in this field and a runner like this should offer slightly better value if I’m right about his potential.

WIN: #4 Fast N Fearious, at 7-2 or greater
USE: 2,3,8